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rochesterdave

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Everything posted by rochesterdave

  1. rochesterdave
    Those bands get stuck in the pivot. As the storm changes its trajectory from east to north, they will stall somewhere. They are probably starting that process now. I hope.
  2. rochesterdave
    Absolutely puking snow. 2”/hr
  3. rochesterdave
    3/4-1” rates now. No sign of that mother f’ing sleet
  4. rochesterdave
    Still sleet mix in Roc
  5. rochesterdave
    I love pouring over the models. I also like getting out in it. Can I do both?
  6. rochesterdave
    We are 90% snow just SE of Rochester (8mi). It is kinda jumping back and forth. When rates are high, we have great big fluffy flakes; when it decreases, we get just a bit of sleet mixing. 1” so far!
  7. rochesterdave
    My obs was an obs. Nothing more. I haven’t been worried about P type. I’ve been concerned about QPF and a snow growth. No worries. Things look good for a thump.
  8. rochesterdave
    Rain and sleet in Rochester
  9. rochesterdave
    Niagara and Orleans took a big hit. Lost .25” qpf. That’s my concern. NW zones are looking anemic. I’ll bet the 18z NAM cuts the **** out of it.
  10. rochesterdave
    Syracuse still looks solid.
  11. rochesterdave
    It’s tight for ROC. If my opinion mattered, I’d aim low- unfortunately.
  12. rochesterdave
    Can we see the totals for the suckers in the west?
  13. rochesterdave
    To add even more confusion to the mix, the new GFS came in strong. Pushed the big totals a bit NW. If I were to go with my gut on this one, I’d slash totals for BUF and ROC. BUF is above 32* at 800 -Sleet is gonna be a problem too...
  14. rochesterdave
    I gotta go back and relearn how to read meteograms/ soundings. I figured it out last winter but have since completely lost any notion of how they work. Syrmax and Freak are on that stuff. Our dowstate friends are getting a taste of your surprise wolfie.
  15. rochesterdave
    Nah Delta, your a necessary balance. I like your steady nature. And you always back it up. Guys, I thought we were only gonna let Freak out of his cage for the big ones? Lol. I actually love him the most.
  16. rochesterdave
    Delta, you’re really pessimistic
  17. rochesterdave
    The Canadian models, after being bullish on Rochester all week, have said NOPE right at game time. Ugh. This could be a tough one guys. I think Wolfie is right about the kicker. Those down state bastards.
  18. rochesterdave
    RGEM would be the nightmare scenario. Is it possible? Yep. Likely? I hope not. It’s a moisture rich system. Even if we bust I think the thruway corridor ends up with 2-4”. SE finger lakes still look the best.
  19. rochesterdave
    It’s looking tight.
  20. rochesterdave
    6z models definitely took a beat SE with totals. NW zone was always gonna be tough.
  21. rochesterdave
    Honestly, that was a great 0z suite of runs. Most of us got a boost in QPF. Ensembles look good too. This storm is looking quite a bit more impressive. I’m wondering if BUF will upgrade to warnings, especially Gennessee valley and East. Wayne county looks real nice Tim!
  22. rochesterdave
    I knew you’d come through. Thanks
  23. rochesterdave
    High bust potential on NW edge
  24. rochesterdave
    Ha! I was just about to post that, Tim! As to your question earlier, no, I don’t come around here unless there’s snow in the forecast. My obsession is strictly with the white stuff.
  25. rochesterdave
    GFS looks good.
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