rochesterdave

Almost every model blasts the Chautauqua Ridge with 18”+. That’s where the action is gonna be. Every damn model

Nobody knows right now. This is NOT a good set up for big Oswego snows. They will be battling warm air from the lake.

If we could get some of this as frozen it would make things interesting.

Fort Drum gets crazy cold. They don’t receive a ton of snow in comparison to areas just south of there. But it might be a lot more snow than you are accustomed to Welcome! We love having new members.

That maps way to generous already. Roc is gonna be greener than it is right now come Thursday. BUF went real crazy with the markers. Hope im wrong Tim

I don’t want take the fun out of it for everyone. Carol should be ok. She should have a little fun. And that one hermit at the top of the hill in Springville. Him too, he might need the snow brush. lol!! Its gonna be fun to track. Weirdo scenario. Maybe a good one to take a drive and take some pics!

What am I missing? The entire 12z NAM gives BUF-SYR thruway from 1.4”-3.8”. Total. With marginal temps. Ski country and the Tug do moderately better but it sure doesn’t look impressive. I guess it’s an interesting set up. Kinda spring like with elevation depending totals. Only way this thing impresses is if it really winds up (even more than its showing) east of us and drags down some cold. I think the early start raised my expectations too high.

I can barely remember a more disappointing evolution of a ‘promised’ pattern. Thousands of wide eyed tweets about the end of November along the East Coast have been smashed! Lol Its like someone sent you a beautifuly wrapped gift only to discover, as you eagerly unwrapped it, that it was a bag of burning sh.t. Long range has been ridiculously bad. Tug is the only area looking realistically good. That 12z CMC was an interesting run. I honestly don’t believe that any of the models have a grip on the upcoming storm once it gets into Michigan. It looks like the primary just degrades near Toronto while a coastal tries to ride up to Gulf of Maine and then retrograde back into the primary???!?!whaaaaat? Lol

Upcoming pattern is more typical of late November. IMBY folks got spoiled by mid November. I proudly count myself among them. My interest is not vested in the micro climates of Cattaraugus or Lewis County. But those two people should have fun racking up their way way to 300”.

This excites about 2 people in the entire NE.

Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving. The next 10 days look like crap. The models have had a terrible time with long term so far this season. A few days ago the set up looked like a lock for an EC storm, then it degraded into a weird split flow retro and now it just looks like a mess of weak, random impulses. Just gross looking for at very least the next 5 days. Tug might get a few inches...

What’s with the sports? Really

Just had a pretty heavy squall set up over Irondequoit.

I like the Penfield/ Walworth area for a few inches of fluff tonight. Could get interesting if the dry doesn’t kill it.

Emergency broadcast system just broke in for squall in ROC. I was at DMV and every cell in the place went off. I was sure it was the end. Its snowing hard but really???

Dang. BUF can’t catch a break.

Wrong board.

Great obs. My folks live right near the 90-390 interchange and still have several inches. I’m up just N of Rochester, on the lake, and we are down to grass.

That would be great for BUF. Terrible for Roc

I’ll just put this right here. Lol

Stupid cold on Thanksgiving. Cold without snow is for suckers.

Long term forecasts can bite my d... They are always wrong. November was supposed to torch.

Great article. If I’m reading it correctly, it shows minimal monthly correlation but an uptick in December blocks. It mentions the two notable March blocks in 2010 and 2013. https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/joc.4673

Interesting bit on a couple big blocks: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/02/22/the-pattern-that-lies-ahead-is-known-for-big-east-coast-snowstorms-including-the-d-c-area-sometimes/

I don’t have proof but I have 46 years of living here. I could be wrong but I think of retro lows happening in March and the end of February. But that’s just anecdotal. I think we had a broader discussion last year about Roc vs BUF snowfall and that Roc gets it more at the end while BUF does well early in the season. That at least is provable. We, as you said, need a block or significant traffic in the N Atlantic. Progressive wx patterns don’t lend to that scenario and idk but November seems progressive usually. usually and seems are piss poor terms for a scientific discussion. I’ll try and research