tombo82685

10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Looks like a FZ sounding?

No, the FRAM maps. They are the best for freezing rain accrual. They take into consideration precip rate, wind speed, and wet bulb temp. While the ones on pivotal are just a straight how much qpf falls as zr, which won’t all accrual and will be less. 

8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Not to mention this, all models now show over 1/2" of FZ for Erie county.

What are the FRAM maps like?

Think next threat to watch after clipper Saturday would be later next week in the thurs-sat period 

6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Long Range GEFS shows the battle zone too. EPS/GEFS showing at least 2 weeks straight of overrunning potential with plenty of cold air close by. New England posters/mets are really high on the potential. Some of them are posting analogs for some of the best marches in history.

it has a feb 2015 look to it. That feb was heavily dominated by the pacific with a piss poor atlantic and arctic.

39 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Odd tombo. Cause I see this. 

Those maps are way more than what weatherbell has. Would assume counting sleet 

21 minutes ago, tim123 said:

06z euro?

bit warmer or I guess just not as snowy, even though I think those maps are overdone any ways. Roc was  3.6 at 0z and went to 2.7 6z 

fwiw, the weatherbell gefs snow map is like half that of what you posted

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Here is the mean. That's an 8.5" mean for KBUF at 1:10. Not sure how much of that is sleet.

me thinks its counting a lot of it as sleet, but I'm sure there is some snow involved too

14 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Points for persistence 

That’s counting sleet as snow, fwiw. I’m sure there is some snow but some of that is sleet

8 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

You’ve got to be kidding me

Welcome to my world lol

-9/9 splits for today here 

Ukmet still a big hit for Buffalo and Rochester area 

gem is nw as I stated going off what we saw from rgem. Still dumps some accumulating snow in wny, and maybe a couple inches in north country

Just now, tim123 said:

Looks like 06z euro

yes, very close to it. Just stating the 12z ggem will most likely come nw. 

rgem a good bit more amped, still on colder side, but would think ggem comes in nw of 0z

6 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Interesting considering these seem to waffle more than gfs. But maybe that just means gfs is stubborn when it gets a idea and corrected last min

The gfs has not been that good as of late. Look back at the last 3 snow events in the east, it generally was last on board. 

5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Euro still king by a long shot. 

Yes sir 

1 minute ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Looking at H5, the confluence looks a bit nw/slower as well though.

Yea that’s true, could be a wash. Doesn’t look worse. The fact that the eps at 6z improves told me it may of been better. 

fwiw, the ggem the last 31 days is 2nd best scoring model behind the euro. Ukmet 3rd and gfs 4th. Doesn't mean anything going forward as past performances don't dictate future ones. Something to note though. 

4 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Looks about same as 0z just a bit slower 

I would think it may of been a bit better. The 850s are close to 0z, but the main s/w is slower, imo that would mean more time for cold to push in allowing for a bit more frozen. 

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Only goes out to hour 84h? Similar to 6z euro at 90h

yup, which makes me always think is it the rgem? But if you compare the two (rgem and ggem) on that site esp out further in time, they don't match up, they are different

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Pretty sure thats the RGEM. But the CMC animated model is definitely not a 6z run of CMC as evident from the bottom time stamp. 

I actually think that might be 6z ggem. if you compare the two, they aren't the same the 6z rgem and 6z ggem 

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Pretty sure thats the RGEM. But the CMC animated model is definitely not a 6z run of CMC as evident from the bottom time stamp. 

Yea I know the gem collaboration wasn't 6z ggem. 

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Theres no such thing as a 18z or 6z CMC/GEM. If you go to the bottom hover over hours 48 and 49. As soon as it turns to 49 it goes back to the Oz run. Wolfie explained this to me once and I got it right away. 

not sure if this is the 84 hr rgem, or legit ggem, but it says 6z ggem here

https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?run=06&mode=latest&map=na&mod=cmc_gdps&lang=en

28 minutes ago, tim123 said:

https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

thats not the 6z ggem, thats 0z. It says it at the bottom of the page. It goes 6z untill hr 48, then jumps to 0z ggem after 48hrs

Only place I know where 6z ggem is on meteocentre