tombo82685

On 2/21/2022 at 11:45 AM, tombo82685 said:

These systems are notorious for late in the game warm pushes 

On 2/21/2022 at 9:10 AM, tombo82685 said:

Reason why I’m thinking mix gets to i90. Globals will miss sneaky warm layers as we have seen all winter long. Let’s see what mesos show as we get closer in. Regardless still looks like 4-8” event region wide 

Not bad thoughts from Monday 

1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

That was expected, "should" blossom overnight, we'll see lol

Once waa pushes into that cold air should increase lift and precip should expand 

2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

New Nam run looks like garbage. lol... Way north, and cut precipitation. The models are all over the place. The other 0Z runs aren't looking as juiced either.

enjoy your 4-8"

4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Gonna leave us hanging like that huh? Lol

Lol I figured someone would of posted it already 

we violently take that 18z euro run

I still don’t see the support for kbuf snow map unless they are expecting decent ratios? Nam looked pretty decent with omega within a fat dgz, but that could be overcooked with it having more amped look still. 

14 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Euro was too far south on the last one of these storms. Consistently had southern tier within the axis of heaviest snow but ended up busting a good 40 miles too far south. Gotta start to weigh the meso models more heavily starting with tonight's runs.

Agreed, on using mesos. But to me nam is probably to amped up. But they will have correct idea with mids where euro and gfs will miss the tiny warm layers a loft 

3 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Less expected snow but higher end then most lol

I’ll sell on that. Looks like a 3-6/4-8 type event to me 

58 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

I'm not sure if this has a chance to phase or kick lol

would bet on the kick aspect of it. Though that should bring some light snow maybe decent lake effect with the ull energy swinging through 

Stuck at 44

Euro looks good, let’s get that about another 50-75 miles further north please 

Euro looks ggem like, maybe hair warmer. Gets mixing to about bgm

1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

Ping ping

Just now, 96blizz said:

The taint kissing line is knocking on the door. You want that!  

If it means a big waa slug of qpf, yes, me personally I would. Sleet just adds girth to the pack 

Just now, TugHillMatt said:

Sigh always a push of warmth up through the anus of the Finger Lakes.

These systems are notorious for late in the game warm pushes 

1 minute ago, tim123 said:

Atleasy thruway is ok for now

Yes, your area being further west look fine. It’s give and take though. While primary low is hanging on more it increases the waa precip for a better front end thump. I’d rather blitz for 6hrs with 1-2”hr rates than 12hrs of yawn flakes 

2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

It's close..Those maps may include sleet..

they def do imo lol

1 minute ago, tim123 said:

Where do you see that

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=850th&rh=2022022112&fh=96&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

Ukmet was about 4mb stronger this run..

 

 

Gets mixing line up north like icon

Ggem does look good. I’d like to get that a bit further north that low track 

1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said:

Well, only so far north until it transfers (hopefully).

Yea, but that transfer can be delayed as primary holds longer basically what I’m alluding to. 

2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

I'm all in on the later transfer lol

Solid run..

Yup, I will gladly risk taint if it means we get a better waa push of qpf. 

Lock that gfs run up, 8-10 up here. Sadly though, still 4 days away and there is nothing stopping this from going further north outside of tpv placement. More energy consolidates out west, north we go. 

Gfs gets mix to syr now maybe a hair north. Solid hit up here. 

That’s a throttling on the icon up here