Forget about the strat for remainder of the winter, that is record strong. Despite the strong SPV for most of the winter, there has been a notable disconnect between the TPV and SPV which has allowed for brief intrusions of high latitude blocking across the Arctic domain. That looks to come to an end as it looks like the SPV and TPV look to finally couple. Can see how all the blues have been stuck above 300hpa, that looks to change by Presidents Day. So that could signal to a possible warmer than normal March. In terms of February there are some weak intrusions of -AO.
To me the biggest difference if you look at the 2 ens guidance the gefs and eps is how they handle their mjo forecast. The eps/euro mjo goes right into phase 4 which is warm for us with more zonal flow across the US with a +epo. If this were the case, would favor northern tier as cold air might be tough to come by
The gefs bring this into phase 2 then 3, then slowly work towards 4. Thats a much colder forecast and would promote much colder weather with more wintry impacts. Can see on the gefs OLR starts in eastern IO then slowly propagate towards Bay of Bengal.
Looking at the VP maps, definitely would support more convection firing in the eastern IO than what the euro would advertise and would be a nod to the gfs mjo forecast
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png
The roundy mjo plots which I love and think grab convection tendency the best would show the phase 2/3 emergence but quickly go towards phase 4/5 into maritimes which would support warmer pattern
So it basically comes down to which MJO forecast is correct. The gefs seem to slow to me with its wave propagation and would tip my cap towards euro evolution going off roundy plots. The euro looks wrong to me with not pushing this into phase 2/3 more before heading into 4.