tombo82685
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Everything posted by tombo82685
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bit south and weaker as gfs is getting away from more phasing energy -
yup, was a tick south from 6z
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have to see now, because its holding back in the souht, not ejecting out as fast. that could allow for tpv pendulum push to swing through then that comes up on back side
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that final wave that comes up on the gfs looks to be loaded with moisture. Can see stronger s/w in the southwest, but that storm should be a bit further south than 6z.
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Yup, less phasing. Colder push from clipper being further east
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Looks about right. They were expecting 15-20/1 ratios
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They def can because models often times rush the cold air and adjust closer in. But not often you have a 1040+mb high slamming in from the west. How much energy phases in the south is the key part. More energy phases further west it goes. Less energy phases south it goes
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-21 lowville
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it looks either anafrontal to me or overunning. Wave forms along front, which is anafrontal. You can also argue overrunning because cold high in place which is aiding in the heavy precip due to sharp thermal contrast
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you were right on the ggem, I didn't refresh timestamp, the ggem is like the gfs
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No I think you get in on 1st wave too. 2nd one you may get grazed with but may be south of you
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that final wave I don't think os for us. 2 waves. First is ours, second is bgm and maybe i95. Unless this full on phases with southern stream disturbance, which I don't think it will, that cold will press bndry
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2 wave idea IMO, last wave is bgm on south
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yup, goes right over nyc
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thats a good bit further southeast. gfs has low going into pitt. gem would be towards i95 or just west of there
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its coming around give it some time
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gfs going the progressive route moreso
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The ASOS always low balls in snow with qpf. I would say look at coocorahs reports in that area for better liquid equiv. It happened with philly today. I'm down there actually right now. The asos only melted down .33 qpf with 7.5" of snow, thats way off. So in their daily climate report they have it as a M until they can determine a qpf for it
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Their omega lined up well in dgz. But when you have that much wind it can fracture dendrites and lead lower ratios
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yea, i think in general it would whiff us. The lead wave that rides the front wed night into thursday AM is probably our shot. 2nd wave I think is bgm on south
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Thing that sucks is, the stronger piece of energy, the southern stream energy is the caboose in all of this and I think that track may favor bgm or south
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eps goign that way too. Should see first wave on front that favored canada to be further south to hit kbuf to kart, then secondary wave to be further south. Maybe a track along or south of i95
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Euro going to be more progressive at 18z
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Nope, I think you will be shovelling 4+ from wed-friday system
