tombo82685

whatever county it is in, still holds same merit.

Should say, I think beginning of that period holds the cold, could be moderation for back half of that if euro guidance is right

roch airport measured 1.11 qpf with 13.1 snow, avg 11.8-1 ratio. buffalo had 1.02 qpf with 9.7 snow for a 9.7 total, thats 10.5-1 ratio. This is through midnight last night. Where are you getting these 15/16-1 avgs? Even @DeltaT13 said those maps are wrong and he lives in the same county as you.

this is lake effect, which verifies, no doubt. It's the synoptic event in which they did not verify, where numerous people have pointed out to you

that 8-14 day outlook to me is highly dependent on how mjo verifies. Could see that going warmer if mjo propagates faster towards maritimes. If gefs are right, then colder look will be correct

In some years it certainly does, in other years the PV does. Last Feb was PV driven that cold with the ssw. But yea, really up to how the mjo propagates through IO and into maritimes and at what speed.

Forget about the strat for remainder of the winter, that is record strong. Despite the strong SPV for most of the winter, there has been a notable disconnect between the TPV and SPV which has allowed for brief intrusions of high latitude blocking across the Arctic domain. That looks to come to an end as it looks like the SPV and TPV look to finally couple. Can see how all the blues have been stuck above 300hpa, that looks to change by Presidents Day. So that could signal to a possible warmer than normal March. In terms of February there are some weak intrusions of -AO. To me the biggest difference if you look at the 2 ens guidance the gefs and eps is how they handle their mjo forecast. The eps/euro mjo goes right into phase 4 which is warm for us with more zonal flow across the US with a +epo. If this were the case, would favor northern tier as cold air might be tough to come by The gefs bring this into phase 2 then 3, then slowly work towards 4. Thats a much colder forecast and would promote much colder weather with more wintry impacts. Can see on the gefs OLR starts in eastern IO then slowly propagate towards Bay of Bengal. Looking at the VP maps, definitely would support more convection firing in the eastern IO than what the euro would advertise and would be a nod to the gfs mjo forecast http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png The roundy mjo plots which I love and think grab convection tendency the best would show the phase 2/3 emergence but quickly go towards phase 4/5 into maritimes which would support warmer pattern So it basically comes down to which MJO forecast is correct. The gefs seem to slow to me with its wave propagation and would tip my cap towards euro evolution going off roundy plots. The euro looks wrong to me with not pushing this into phase 2/3 more before heading into 4.

.2 of lake effect over night. 11.5 for total. almost 55" on the year.

Dang, really? Looks very light on radar. Guess arctic air overhead squeezing out some decent moisture

You weren't missing anything, clearly I was lol

lol, yea my math failed me there

lowville coop melted down .6 with 8" of snow. Not sure if that liquid number is right, but thats like 30-1 ratios. Seems pretty high honestly.

No I’m talking qpf wise. Wpc had 1-1.25 but he showed the map for last 24hrs. What fell prior qpf wise?

wasn't that forecast for the entire event? What fell wednesday night into Thursday AM?

this last wave under some decent returns looks like lake effect stuff. Big dendrites coming down.

it was pure powder up here, granted I'm much colder up here. It was dense, but powder

Looked to me beginning to mid part of next week always looked more seasonable to slightly above as the flow gets a bit more zonal. Colder look starts later in the week and the flow goes more meridonal. I like how the pattern looks going forward. Not overbearing cold, but cold enough for snow and active as the mean trough axis looks to be to our west. Should cause a storm track closer by. Then looks like a lot of northern stream disturbances too.

9.4 here, 14 otg. Hoping that 3rd wave brings additional 1-2. temp 11

seriously, nothing beats a good bourbon on a cold snowy night

how does that make you feel Matt, tell us from the bottom of your heart

believe perrysburg has good elev like over 1400 so could be some upslope enhancement

Yea and would think with any decent omega later on with cooling thermals aloft would increase chance of a bit better ratios

Whats the vis at tri cities, that should tell you whether it's legit or not. I highly doubt snow if the bgm is zr. Could be happening is lower elev than airport giving more time for rain droplets to freeze. Probably pelting with maybe a few needles thrown in

yea, gotta be lack of omega which lays that out well with lack of qpf. Didn't most models have like 1.2-1.4 for cuse area qpf wise lol?

thats not bad. Yea sounds like issue is qpf. Whats your temp down there? Its 15 here