OHweather

That band disappointed this morning. Somewhere between 1-2" here, and am not expecting much more. Maybe another inch or so later at some point.

Great to hear! Snow starting to increase now across Cleveland...worst timing for the commute here.

I'm confident in a decent band into Lake/Ashtabula into NW PA tonight dropping 4-8" type amounts, with a nice squall dropping 2-4" on a short period as the front causes that band to pivot south during the early morning tomorrow. After that though I'm definitely worried about a period of very disorganized snow in the Cleveland metro before an increase in the evening. I think the band tonight into early tomorrow will be intense enough to get a lot of areas close to my low end totals, with any bands that can redevelop during the evening adding to that. The ARW is stingy and shows .1-.2" of liquid across the metro and a little more in parts of the Snowbelt... The NMM looks like a decent quarter to half inch in the traditional Snowbelt with close to 0.75" in Lake County. So we'll see how it plays out

Yikes at that ice! There are still probably some holes so there will probably still be some heat/moisture flux from the western basin, but it won't be as strong. There's still a decent band hugging the Lake County shoreline and the instability isn't even that good right now, so I think we'll still be ok later. It'll be windy so the central basin can only freeze up so fast. I agree that CLE is a little aggressive with their amounts. Their advisory reads 4-6" with locally more, which I generally agree with for those counties, although their grids have a lot more as shown by the map posted above. It looks like they have a good amount of snow tonight across Lorain/Cuyahga/Geauga when the winds will be SW and causing any snow to hug the eastern lakeshore which adds probably 3" to those areas. With the dry air working in tomorrow, this strikes me as an event where the bulk of the snow falls in two bursts...one early tomorrow as the front drops south and another tomorrow evening as the winds become more WNW again. So there could be a lot of downtime late tomorrow morning and afternoon where it's just cold/windy with flurries. Looks like about 1.5" here from the clipper, and 2" on the ground.

A deep upper level trough will move across the Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday and allow very cold air to spill into Ohio. An arctic front will drop south across Lake Erie and northern Ohio between 2AM and 8AM Wednesday, with a northwest flow setting up behind it. Ahead of the front, a strong band will likely form along the eastern lakeshore and then swing south with the front. Behind the front, questions about drier air and a short fetch due to a NW flow make the forecast tough, despite extreme lake induced instability and very high inversions. Ahead of the front, the hi-res models suggest strong convergence along the Lake Erie shoreline, with the winds trying to back to the SW over land while they become west and eventually WNW over Lake Erie. This seems like good support for a decent single band to form along the eastern lakeshore, and the NMM and ARW both show this by 1AM Wednesday: BUFKIT forecast soundings by this point indicate moderate lake induced CAPE with equilibrium levels near 8k feet and rising, with moisture depth to 6-7k feet. These parameters are all marginal to good, and with such strong convergence evident on the mesoscale models along the eastern lakeshore I’d expect a band with moderate to heavy snow to be developing quickly by this point if it doesn’t develop even a few hours sooner: The surface winds have a good southerly component, however with decent WNW winds in the boundary layer mixing to the surface over the lake, I’d imagine the band would be a few or several miles inland across Lake and Ashtabula Counties. There is good moisture and instability in the DGZ, so I’d expect very high snow ratios on the order of 20-30:1 in any band in this timeframe, so snow rates of 1-2” per hour seem like a good bet under any banding in Lake and northern Ashtabula Counties between midnight and 4AM Wednesday. By 4AM Wednesday, the front is approaching the lakeshore but still hasn’t pushed inland yet per the 0z NAM, GFS and Euro, so I’d expect any band to still be close to the lakeshore…although it may begin budging south. Also, note the decent convergence as far west as Toledo, suggest a burst of snow could occur across all of northern Ohio as this front drops south just before dawn on Wednesday. The convergence across Lake and Ashtabula Counties into NW PA is extremely strong, and heavy snow rates are very likely in this timeframe. By 7AM Wednesday, the models all show the front south of Cleveland and pushing through the Snowbelt, likely with a band of heavy snow with it. By this point, lake induced instability will be extreme (800-1000 J/KG of CAPE) with equilibrium levels rising to 10-12k feet. In addition, the NAM shows very strong omega along the front (CLE briefly has -30 ub/sec!!). Any band along the front could produce very heavy snow rates, although the band will be moving so the snow may not add up a ton: Behind the front, instability remains extreme and equilibrium heights will remain in the 10-12k foot range until mid to late Wednesday afternoon. However, the fetch will become shorter and some low-level dry air may work in, limiting additional snowfall behind the front. The winds immediately behind the front (see the BUFKIT forecast sounding for CLE above) will be very well aligned out of the WNW for a couple of hours, so I suspect some convergence and half decent snows will hang on for a couple of hours behind the front a bit inland from the lake…mainly across parts of Lorain, southern Cuyahoga, Medina, northern Summit, southern Geauga, Portage into Trumbull and possibly Mahoning. These areas could see another couple inches right behind the front by mid to late Wednesday morning. By later Wednesday morning and into Wednesday afternoon, the flow will be true NW (one of the shortest fetches across Lake Erie for northern Ohio), and the models show some dry low-level air working into parts of Michigan from Canada. Although the air over Lake Erie will be extremely unstable with high inversions, I’m worried about this dry air. NAM forecast soundings for CLE suggest it may be hard to maintain a deck of lake effect clouds at times: The winds are very well aligned, the layer of instability is deep and the amount of instability is very impressive for a lake effect situation. However, with a short fetch and a good 25-35 knot flow in the boundary layer I have some concerns. This may be where upstream lake connections come into play: The NAM shows a couple of things that concern me…first of all, it shows cold and very dry air (dew points below 0 into lower MI, and -20 to -30F dew points in the core of the colder air) working across the narrow and partially frozen portions of Lakes Michigan/Huron and working towards central Lake Erie late Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon. This would potentially limit lake effect off of Lake Erie given the short fetch. In addition, this cold/dry air pushes the Lake Michigan connection well west of Cleveland. It is very typical to get a Lake MI connection in a NW flow and that is often why there is a band on the west side in a NW flow. You can tell where the connection is by following the convergence in the wind barbs. Between the two connections close to NE Ohio, the winds at the surface are somewhat divergent. This would also limit how organized any lake effect between the two connections is. Because of this, it would not surprise me at all if by late Wednesday morning after the front passes well south and the winds become true NW that the lake effect across the Cleveland metro and also Lake and Geauga Counties becomes very weak/disorganized for a few or even several hours, with perhaps just light accumulations in this timeframe in the higher terrain. There could be heavy snow in eastern Ashtabula County into NW PA under the Lake Huron connection and perhaps decent light to moderate snow in the Lake MI connection well west of Cleveland. Snow ratios during this time frame might not be great either due to the drier air causing the ceilings to climb above the DGZ for a few hours Wednesday afternoon. The NMM and ARW also show the cold/very dry air trying to work its way down towards Lake Erie early Wednesday afternoon: Note how they both show one band west of Cleveland (one model shows it stronger than the other) and the Lake Huron band well east of Cleveland at the same time: By Wednesday evening, the winds will begin backing to a more WNW and eventually W direction, which will lengthen the fetch over Lake Erie and perhaps allow some upstream conditioning from Lake Michigan and increase moisture some: By this point, there will still be decent instability and pretty high equilibrium levels, and convergence will increase some along the central lakeshore and into the Snowbelt as high pressure moves in, so there will probably be an increase in snow Wednesday evening into Wednesday night across northern Lorain, Cuyahoga, Lake, Geauga, Ashtabula, Trumbull and possibly northern Summit/Portage that drops another 1 to locally 4” of what by that point should again be high ratio snow: By 3-4AM the winds go pretty WSW which should confine things to the lakeshore by that point and effectively end the event for most of us… So, how did I figure accums? I figured 4-8” Tuesday night in Lake and northern Ashtabula Counties due to the band I expect to develop there…and then 2-3” across Cuyahoga, northern Medina, northern Summit, Geauga, southern Ashtabula and northern Trumbull as the arctic front drops south early Wednesday, with possibly another inch or two immediately behind the front across parts of Lorain, southern Cuyahoga, northern Medina, northern Summit, southern Geauga, northern Portage into parts of Trumbull, which pushes those areas to 3-5” by mid to late Wednesday morning. The arctic front could produce a quick inch or so everywhere else across north-central and NE Ohio outside of these areas. After the arctic front, I figured another 2-4” Wednesday afternoon across eastern Ashtabula County due to getting fringed by a potentially very heavy Lake Huron band…and perhaps another 1-3” across parts of inland Lorain, eastern Huron County into parts of western/southern Medina and maybe even the higher elevations in northern Ashland Counties due to the Lake MI connection there…with maybe another inch in the higher terrain in the primary and secondary Snowbelts. I think figured another 1-4” from Cuyahoga east Wednesday evening into the overnight with the last flareup I expect. This pushes most of Lake and Ashtabula up to 6-12”, with perhaps a little more in eastern Ashtabula if they do get into the Huron connection. This gives a wide 4-8” area in the rest of the primary Snowbelt and surrounding areas. I drew 3-6” amounts well west to account for the possible Lake MI connection in that area. I didn’t feel comfortable with leaving the higher terrain in SW Cuyahoga and northern Medina in just 3-6” so I added a small 4-8” area there as well. Due to favorable orographic lift in northern Geauga I figured they could squeeze out a little more in every phase of the event so I also drew 6-12” in there. Although I didn’t draw it in on this map, I expect 1-2 feet across a good portion of Erie and Crawford Counties PA as they should also get in on the band Tuesday night ahead of the front and also the Lake Huron connection for several hours on Wednesday. Map:

There wasn't any ice on that camera yesterday morning, too bad it's already icing again. The winds will shift around with the clipper going by, so hopefully that keeps the ice from forming solid until at least Wednesday night.

About half an inch here, roads are pretty icy. Lake effect may take some time to organize.

The NAM appears to show saturation and decent omega in the *small* DGZ on Wednesday, so I don't think it'll be too cold. Ratios might come down to more like 15-20:1 due to the limited size of the DGZ by Wednesday afternoon, but I figure it won't be so cold that all we see are needles falling. The interesting potential IMO is a potentially really nice squall along the arctic front around daybreak Wednesday. The NAM shows an extremely nice cross-hair signature (omegas better than -25 in the DGZ) as the front pushes south off the lake early Wednesday, could be a period of white-out conditions with that. We should all be getting light wrap around snow soon, will be nice to see.

CLE ended up issuing an advisory for Lake, Geauga and Ashtabula into NW PA for tonight into tomorrow, so we'll see. There will be a little shortwave that goes by tonight which may help a half decent band develop by dawn tomorrow and persist for a few hours, possibly as far south as 422, before it starts gradually shifting up the lakeshore. Should be the fluffy snow so we'll see if a band can actually form this go around or not. Moisture depth after this evening is iffy at only 5-6k feet, with an inversion at 6-8k feet and 300-500J/KG of lake induced CAPE, so it will probably take an organized band that doesn't move too much to get a few inches. That looks possible tomorrow morning behind the shortwave, so we'll see.

Looking at the 12z NAM and recent RAP runs, they now bring the winds around to a solid WNW direction tonight. Granted, moisture depth and inversion heights are very marginal. The 0z ARW and NMM again spit out a quarter to half inch of QPF under any banding across the Snowbelt, but that may be a bit high. There could be an ok burst this evening with the wrap around snow showers that drops up to an inch, and then we see where any bands set up. I could see locations like 422 doing OK if the latest NAM and RAP are right about the winds. Moisture depth and inversion heights are pretty marginal (inversions around 7k feet and moisture up to 4-5k feet) so you'd have to get under a band for a little while to see more than an inch or two.

I'd imagine they got enough rain and will see enough wind to disperse the ice starting to form, although a warmer push of air would've been nice there too.

Looking at their forecast graphics, they have temps quickly rising into the lower 50's tonight, but have lower 40's right about now (which is several degrees too cool) which is where that low comes from. Cincinnati is pushing 60, so I wonder if we can get like 57 or 58 as a pre-dawn high tomorrow.

It looks like tomorrow evening the remaining deform snow moves through. It won't be much, but some lake enhancement should occur in a WNW flow as the deform moves through so I think most of us in the Snowbelt will get an inch or two tomorrow evening. Later tomorrow night pure LES takes over. The parameters are similar to Tuesday night. There might be a little more instability, but moisture depth and inversion heights are similar. The NAM shows just a slightly north of due west wind which would keep things probably north of 322 up towards Chardon, while the GFS would be WNW enough to get the better snow as far SW as the 480 corridor out into Solon and probably even where I am. The Euro is in between. Regardless, it looks like a mainly light "event" Sunday night into Monday...1-2" from the deform/lake enhancement Sunday evening, and then another 1-3" wherever the lake effect sets up. The GFS brought the clipper back north a little bit, with the 0z Euro and 12z GFS both showing .2-.3" of QPF across northern Ohio. Ratios will be decent with the clipper, probably close to 20:1. That does imply a 4-6" snowfall, however the snow will be quick hitting and omega looks modest in the DGZ, so I'm thinking more of a 2-4" with the clipper. Behind the clipper the flow looks WNW with increasing moisture and instability Tuesday night, with the GFS and Euro both showing a surface trough dropping across the lake Wednesday morning. This may support a primary single band from northern Lorain and Cuyahoga points east that drops south on Wednesday, with a multi-band setup taking hold in a NW flow by Wednesday afternoon. The instability and equilibrium heights progged by the GFS are more impressive than any of the November events for Wednesday and Wednesday night with impressive moisture depth to over 10k feet. My one concern is the GFS shows very dry dew points at CLE which may hurt us with a NW flow, however the GFS is going to under-do heat and moisture flux off of the Great Lakes, so I imagine that as the NAM gets in range it will look better with the low level moisture. If we get into range and the NAM does show higher dew points, I'd imagine that the eye-popping parameters and also conditioning from Lake Michigan would allow decent snows to continue in the NW flow Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. It will be cold enough by Wednesdy afternoon to stunt snow growth somewhat, so ratios might be held to 15-20:1 outside of any intense bands. The winds start going west on Thursday and eventually southwest by Thursday evening which should push the lake effect up the eastern lakeshore. So, it looks like a little snow Sunday evening through Monday...a general light snow with the clipper on Tuesday...a very good setup for lake effect Wednesday...with the lake effect winding down Thursday. Sounds fun to me at least...

This would be ideal...very cold WNW flow with deep synoptic moisture, with us still in a cyclonic flow. I will forgive the last few weeks if something like this pans out.

Just glancing on my phone, the GFS and Euro appear to get cold enough for some lake enhanced by Sunday evening with a NW flow too before true LES starts on Monday.

Yeah, it would be nice to be rewarded for our mild December by a January LES event. The lake will probably start to freeze next week. The GFS, Euro and Canadian all agree on how cold it will be more or less but differ on the clipper and how much moisture will be around. If we keep a more WNW flow we'd be able to get away with a drier airmass due to a longer fetch. As always, lots of details to work out, but a deep trough with very cold air sitting just to our north for days is a good look for decent LES.

The 12z Euro would be a long duration W-NW flow event starting Monday through Thursday with a clipper thrown in Tuesday. The airmass is bitterly cold with 850mb temps below -20C except for Tuesday when the clipper goes by. As long as there's some moisture which there should be with any little shortwaves that go by it'd be a great setup. The rain this weekend should ensure the western basin is open.

I saw that, but every model appears to show NW at some point, maybe SW for brief periods ahead of any clippers. Euro was especially fun looking in terms of possible lake effect.

Evidently, you can now download radar data from COD's website, save it, and upload it elsewhere. Pretty cool! Anyways, you can see the issue with last night's lake effect. The winds never stopped shifting, so the bands kept moving. Rates weren't heavy enough to add up to much without a steady-state band. Cloud tops actually got to 6-8k feet at CLE through the night so they got right up to the inversion height, but limited moisture depth couldn't be overcome due to the shifting winds.

It looks like the Chardon cam shows maybe 3" on the ground. Looking at the long radar loop on COD's website, the bands just took too long to get their act together last night. It looks like northern Geauga, parts of Lake and Ashtabula will end up with around 3" give or take due to a brief period of decent snows this morning, but probably not quite as much as I thought. Got 0.2" here. All three models get really cold by the middle of next week at the latest. With the PV sitting just to our north and Lake Erie not frozen, this could be our best opportunity yet. It has almost a week to change though so I'll reserve my excitement until we get to the weekend at least.

There's been an uptick along 422 in the last hour and the "band" extends back to the western basin. I'd expect the band to shift north some and intensify as well as the diurnal snow showers inland weaken and convergence increases along the shoreline as the winds back a little bit later this evening.

Drove through a half decent burst in Solon. The flakes were big and fluffy, if a band does set up later it won't be hard to rack up a few inches with that snow growth. Most of the BUF WRFs do show a band tonight although with mainly light snow. The NMM and ARW both show a quarter to half inch of liquid from NE Cuyahoga east through northern Geauga and the rest of the Snowbelt. So I feel the parameters and hi-res models support a 2-5" snow if a band forms. I feel like some kind of band will form tonight, although with only a small northerly component to the wind it might get stuck along the 322 corridor, which is just a bit too far north for most of us. I'm not expecting much here but our Chagrin and South Russel posters may be in the game, but it'll be close for them.

It looks like some lake effect will finally occur here over the next couple of days. It may affect Cleveland's currently 3rd least snowy December depending on where any banding sets up. A weak shortwave will move through northern Ohio tomorrow morning, with some increase in mid-level moisture. Instability will be pretty marginal, with lake to 850mb temp differentials tomorrow of 15-17C (increasing towards evening) and equilibrium levels of 6-7k feet, however, forecast soundings do show moisture below the EL so I do think there should be just enough moisture and instability for light snow showers tomorrow. With a short fetch with NW winds and such marginal conditions I don't expect more than an inch through tomorrow afternoon, but it will be nice to see a few flakes around (I saw a couple of snow grains yesterday, but that's about it) For tomorrow night conditions get more interesting, and a band could setup and produce plowable amounts of snow for some of us. Mid-level temps will cool several degrees with lake to 850mb temp differentials of around -20C tomorrow night into early Wednesday. The NAM shows equilibrium levels rising to around 7k feet or a bit better tomorrow night into Wednesday morning, with good moisture to about 6k feet. The NAM in BUFKIT gives 300-500 J/KB of lake induced CAPE for CLE, which is moderate. The winds will be well aligned from the WNW tomorrow night into Wednesday morning before going more SW by noon Wednesday. The lake effect parameters support moderate snow rates, with a good portion of lake induced CAPE on the BUFKIT forecast soundings lying in the dendrite growth zone, which may promote the more common fluffy LES ratios we're used to. Surface high pressure will be building in from the SW with colder air temps inland which tends to support convergence near the lakeshore, and the NAM does appear to show a lake aggrigate trough downwind of both lakes MI and Erie which may also help support convergence along the central lakeshore tomorrow night. Given the potential for moderate snow under any banding tomorrow night with good ratios, and what appears to be some potential for a band to set up for several hours from northern Lorain County east through a good chunk of Cuyahoga and into Geauga, I could see a 2-4" or if a persistent band sets up possibly up to 5" snow event. This is way more than any outlets are mentioning at this time, but I believe the parameters support this potential, especially if a band can setup for several hours tomorrow night. If there's no band we'd probably see more of a 1-3" type scenario play out. The 12z NMM and ARW both did produce over a quarter inch of QPF across parts of Cuyahoga and Geauga Counties through 7AM Wednesday with a band still continuing at the end of the run, so there is some model support for this idea. "BUFKIT graph" for CLE using the NAM. The yellow line is equilibrium level, the white line is lake induced CAPE (CAPE values are on the left). The purple and yellow outlined area represent the snow growth zone. Note how good lift (the red contours) and moisture do get into the snow growth zone tomorrow night, which coincides with half decent lake induced CAPE and EL's: A more traditional skew-t off of BUFKIT for 6AM Wednesday: You can see the NAM trying to show some convergence near the lakeshore in the wind barbs, and also note the modest kink in the isobars near the southern lakeshore of Lake Erie and also just downwind of Lake MI at 7AM Wednesday:

Hopefully everyone had a nice Christmas. Didn't realize quite how bad this December has been historically.

The winds are underperforming by a good 10-15MPH, likely due to the low ending up several MB weaker and a good bit east of where it was modeled last night. A severe thunderstorm warning was issued for Cuyahoga and CLE gusted to 54MPH with the line. I was in Solon and saw a whopping one flash of lightning and gusts probably close to 50 with the line. Behind the line, the peak gusts with the synoptic winds were generally 40-50MPH looking through METARs from this evening, but are already essentially subsiding below advisory criteria. The squall line was kind of cool but overall not as exciting as I was expecting, which is probably a good thing with it being Christmas Eve. Hopefully we can at least get some decorative flurries Christmas morning.