OHweather

Pretty sure we could just expand the advisory for Sunday to the entire CWA at this point...this is coming in more amped / north and the 0z hi-res models like 3-5" (locally a bit more with some LES) for all of northern OH now. Should be a nice fluff factor along with a brief period of moderate to heavy rates.

Early stuff looks a bit south with Monday's clipper, perhaps due to Sunday's being a little stronger in front of it. The NAM has some LES behind the Monday clipper and a bit more LES Tuesday night into Wednesday, assuming there's enough moisture flux through the ice on the lake by that point. This could be trending to quite a snowy few days for northern OH into NW PA! 

Definitely a trend to amp the clipper a bit more on today’s runs. May end up just being 2-4” across the board for all of northern Ohio. 

Chicago gonna pull its largest storm of the season (so far) out of this? The lift is really good for a brief time and ratios should be something like 20:1. Can easily see 1"+ per hour rates for a time...question is if it lasts long enough. Good model agreement, though the American models are a bit more amped and would be ideal.

Clipper / lake enhancement are looking a bit more interesting late tonight through Sunday afternoon...the strongest lift with the clipper will probably be somewhere south of US 30, perhaps towards I-70. Could be a quick 2-4" of fluffy snow down there. I think north of US 30 we get a quick 1-2" with the clipper on Sunday. The exception is lake enhanced / effect snow. A decent west-east convergence band looks to develop late tonight into Erie County and then gradually push south into Sunday, probably getting into NE Cuyahoga, Lake, and northern Geauga before breaking up into more disorganized multi-bands through Sunday afternoon that will wind down Sunday evening. 

The lake enhanced band may be quite intense with the synoptic snow from the clipper on top of strong convergence, EL heights of 7-8k feet, a light flow and very good snow growth yet again, especially into Erie and Chautauqua Counties. Could see 2" per hour rates. The band will gradually push through, but spots may get close to or more than the 6" warning criteria quickly before it sags inland. Could see a need to expand advisories into more of the primary NE Ohio Snowbelt too, but the band will be weakening slowly and moving a bit quicker here...however, between the synoptic snow and lake enhanced band sagging in could see the route 6 corridor getting 3-5" in less than 12 hours which would warrant a headline. We shall see! 

The best of Monday's clipper may go to our north but we should all get some more snow. 

YNG hit -9 and HZY hit -11. Had a co-op in northwestern Crawford County PA that hit -15 this morning. Many backyard wx stations -10 to -15F in rural areas from Summit, Geauga and Stark Cos points east, with a few cold spots in Ashtabula Co getting to near -20F. 

5 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

Wow. Didn't get a fraction of that much here in Stow. 

I lied apparently. The observer put snow depth in as new snow. Oops. Had already sent out the LSR for it too when they corrected the report, blegh 

There were a few other 4-6” reports down 271 in eastern Cuyahoga and also near 77 down into western Summit 

We got an 8.5” report from near Brecksville where that heavy band in the secondary Snowbelt sat for a while yesterday afternoon. That’s an oof 

We got about an inch of fluff out here in Reminderville this evening on top of half an inch to an inch while I was at work. Very much feels like a Cleveland winter the last couple of weeks with a big synoptic snow plus a few LES events that have been tough to forecast but have kept us on our toes. Drove out to the Independence / Seven Hills area around 7 PM and drove through the same band that was still extending from Lake Huron down the 271 corridor into the Garfield Hts / Mayfield Hts area (and actually started snowing as far east as 91 and 422 in Solon). It was absolutely dumping near the 271/480/422 interchange. May have been 2" per hour rates. 1/8th mile visibility and just pouring dendrites. Highways were in rough shape. Got a good inch or so in the Seven Hills / Independence area of fluff in the few hours I was there, looks like what was left of that band drifted into that area. 

A cold front followed by some LES and perhaps a weak clipper look on tap Saturday night through Sunday night...could be a few inches where LES occurs with a W-ish wind. Another clipper Monday or Monday night is possible (GFS still has some southern stream interaction and the timing would be more like Tuesday, but today's Canadian and Euro just have the clipper Monday evening-ish which is what I leaned towards a bit in the forecast today) followed by more cold weather and some (likely modest) lake effect with a NW flow off the icy lake through Wednesday next week. 

Don't see any significant snows out of all of this but it will be cold with flakes in the air at times over the next several days. 

This fluffy lake effect again over-performed a bit today. Light flow, connection to Huron, and really good snow growth resulting in perfect dendrites all helping. Wasn't totally shocked at accumulating snow, but I think what pushed things over the edge to an advisory was the consistent flare-up in the secondary Snowbelt as the main Huron band started approaching from the east. Those bursts in southern Cuyahoga, northern Medina and Summit weren't really modeled at all but were ripping. We had gotten a couple of reports of a quick 2" and any better bursts were easily dropping visibility to a quarter to half mile, covering highways and starting to cause accidents. We were on our third or forth special weather statement of the day and it was obvious the snow would impact the evening commute and the lead felt an advisory would be more pragmatic than re-issuing SPS's every hour for the same general areas. We'll see how many 4"+ reports there are...it would be pretty localized...but definitely a squally day. The commute across 480 and 422 about an hour ago from Brooklyn Hts to Reminderville was certainly slow. 

The lake effect should gradually push west and eventually weaken overnight as the ridge moves overhead and the flow goes more northeast...shear will also increase some. Think amounts this tonight are 1 to locally 3" additional, with the bulk occurring over the next few hours with perhaps some decent bursts occurring where the Huron band goes overnight. 

Yeah the more organized bands are producing decent bursts that are accumulating and covering roads. Really nice dendrites too. The office near 77 and 480 has had a few borderline moderate bursts with radar showing heavier in the hills just to our south. 

Very much need the PNA to drop and the core of the cold to shift west for those outside of the southern/easternmost fringes of the sub-forum to have a shot at anything other than clippers. That seems like it will happen into February...but given how this winter has gone, watch it go from too warm to too cutter-y in 3 days. The current pattern very much is coming in on the colder side of the envelope compared to what was shown on the ensembles 10-15 days ago, which is why the southern Ohio Valley, eastern Great Lakes (and I-95) are getting the snow.

Not an impressive lake effect set-up, but it will be in the air later tonight and Thursday. With a light flow and fluffy snow, any Lake Huron band will drop some accumulations, but unless it stalls for a time (which could result in a fluffy few inches for a small area) it'll be light stuff. 

Trudged through a bit of fresh snow in the Metroparks in the eastern Cleveland suburbs this afternoon. Seemed like closer to 18" than 12"...it was a lot. 

Average of a few measurements was 13-14" here. 

Yeah there’s a silly amount of snow out there, eyeballing close to a foot. Not snowing as hard as when I went to bed but it’s still coming down. Wow. 

More sleet than anything else between about 9:30 and 11:30 PM...some snow was mixed in but with the sleet it was compacting about as quick as it could accumulate. Back to mainly snow for the last 45 mins or so and coming down now, about 3" perhaps slightly more. 

As of midnight, 4.2" at KCLE, 5.0" at KYNG (they mixed too for a bit), and 7.1" (somehow) at KCAK. All 3 sites reported 1" per hour rates last hour, except for CLE, which reported 2" last hour. It's coming down! 

Just now, dilly84 said:

Short range models still showing a lot for here. We'll see.

I think they're a little too bullish but I think if you get into the NWS 3-5" (granted it can be argued that was a little conservative) I'd take it and run this winter. We need to get you out of the little screw hole between banding though and it should go back to snow and start accumulating quicker. 

53 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Back to sleet in knox county. This is ridiculous. I should be far enough north that this isn't an issue with this system. It's starting to look like a massive bust just like the one storm last year. It's gonna have to hammer down to even come close to model totals.

Huge bust for some of the models sure, but you’re in an advisory for 3-5” which still should be doable. Hi-res models had this mixing this evening. The low is closed off early, the warm air is wrapping in from the east. I’ve actually mixed a bit here. Any pockets of sleet will go away over the next few hours. You should still have enough liquid left to get into the 3-5” range, but 6”+ is probably off the table. I know that’s not that much after waiting this long to get something but if it hits the NWS forecast it’s hard to call it a huge bust (at least IMO). It seems like your area is sort of stuck in a little screw hole for now…things will move around but I think that’s why you’ve done so poorly and mixed so much so far. That storm last year you’re referencing stayed well under everyone’s forecasts (including mine) for a large area. I don’t think this is that, though some models will be pretty wrong for your area so it feels like you’re leaving something on the table.  

Already nearing 1.5” here. Did mix with sleet a bit ago but went back to snow pretty quickly as rates ramped back up. There may be a bit of sleet at times the next few hours, but feel pretty good that it won’t significantly hurt totals…but it will keep the ratios below 10:1 tonight. It will be a dense, wet snow. Seems like a fast start with radar and short term models looking good for it to continue. 

Copying over from the other Ohio thread...

Big snow band starting to take shape parts of southern and eastern OH, and will ramp up more over the next few hours as it slowly moves north-northeast

Multiple things contributing...THIS IS CLASSIC...you have weaker stability on the edge of the dry slot which can allow for slantwise convection (which is what typically occurs in mesoscale banded snow). You also have a TROWAL nosing in from the east (trough of warm air aloft), enhancing the mid-level temperature gradient. You already have a nice deform zone and some mid-level fgen, and that means ascent/rising air, which will cool the atmosphere further (and should gradually cause any pockets of mix to go away through the evening). This cooling will also increase the temperature gradient on the edge of the TROWAL, strengthening the fgen further and causing the band to really rip. Definitely some positive feedbacks here. The branch of the warm conveyor belt wrapping cyclonically into the deform zone is adding some deeper moisture to. Parts of eastern Ohio will absolutely rip snow this evening into the overnight. Travel will be nearly impossible, this is a high-end set-up for our region (and this will go into W PA, W NY, and eventually S Ontario too).

The very heaviest may be east of CLE and CAK but this is an outstanding synoptic snowstorm for this region. I feel silly for being timid on the west trend pulling this into CLE until today. Sort of makes up for the last 6 weeks of not snowing at all. 

Big snow band starting to take shape parts of southern and eastern OH, and will ramp up more over the next few hours as it slowly moves north-northeast

Multiple things contributing...THIS IS CLASSIC...you have weaker stability on the edge of the dry slot which can allow for slantwise convection (which is what typically occurs in mesoscale banded snow). You also have a TROWAL nosing in from the east (trough of warm air aloft), enhancing the mid-level temperature gradient. You already have a nice deform zone and some mid-level fgen, and that means ascent/rising air, which will cool the atmosphere further (and should gradually cause any pockets of mix to go away through the evening). This cooling will also increase the temperature gradient on the edge of the TROWAL, strengthening the fgen further and causing the band to really rip. Definitely some positive feedbacks here. The branch of the warm conveyor belt wrapping cyclonically into the deform zone is adding some deeper moisture to. Parts of eastern Ohio will absolutely rip snow this evening into the overnight. Travel will be nearly impossible, this is a high-end set-up for our region (and this will go into W PA, W NY, and eventually S Ontario too).

The heaviest may be east of some of the posters in this thread, but it's really an outstanding set-up for our region! 

Radar is looking great! Frankly wouldn't shock me if most areas east of 77 have double digits by dawn with lake enhanced / effect to follow. This has turned into quite a storm. Was telling my dad, normally I'm excited for days before the snow starts. This had to trend so far to get to this point that it hasn't hit me that I will have an easy 6 or 8" by morning and quite possibly 10"+! Those of you in Geauga will get a larger lake contribution than I will. Plenty of snow to go around. 

A lot of hi-res models had mixing all the way into NE OH and NW PA for a time later this evening, so I don't think the mix is a surprise. It "should" go to snow through the evening as better banding develops. I wouldn't call a bust yet but you'll know which way it's going in the next few hours if banding starts cranking and flips everyone back to snow. Along the OH river went back to snow as heavier rates developed over the last hour or so. 

6 hours ago, amt5626 said:

Love to see the HREF giving 6+ here. Feeling comfortable for a solid 6-8". And too funny that you used to be in HKT! I plan on moving out that way sometime in the spring/summer to start more of a hybrid work environment. Will miss the virtual work and Ohio life some, but always open to new exploring new places.

HKT itself is a nice, little town. Very wooded and hilly area so if you're into the outdoors there's some stuff to do. Even an ok little ski resort about an hour north of Hackettstown in Vernon, NJ. But, key words here are little town and wooded. If you're looking for more of a social life you may end up closer to Morristown. If you do look for an apartment in Hackettstown yourself feel free to reach out, I know people who lived in or still live in pretty much all the places in Hackettstown. 

Anyways, agree that I like where we're at. Nice little coating down here on all surfaces. Glad Summit and Cuyahoga finally are under warnings as I don't think it'll be even close to not being worth a warning, especially the eastern half of both counties. Could see them needing to add Wayne and Medina too just eyeballing the radar. 

First few flakes have started here. 

12z HREF pretty wet along and east of 77...maybe shave a little off due to low ratios to start, but a good idea IMO. The hi-res stuff is now west closer to the globals and may handle amounts and the cut-off with the very heavy band better. Someone may really get crushed in W PA or SW NY, and that could clip far eastern OH. 6z NAM probably too far west but this is a nice compromise.