Bubbler86

The EC is upper 60's and low 70's on Christmas. It's the extreme high but the CMC and GFS and 60's. Crazy.

384 so....LOL. But I agree with your sentiment I think. No slam dunk winter weather for a bit. Models are insistent on not allowing the Southern Stream system, late next week, to get tugged up. On the plus side, lots of people travelling so decent weather is good for them.

Just looked at the end of the GFS. In the mode of crazy weather, that is REALLY cold in the upper Mid West. Pray your car does not break down cold.

Another thing, just to be up front, you would would have to look long and hard where I replied to a teleconnections post directly. The comments you attributed to me were in response to someone attacking my less than rosy outlook at that time. I do not enjoy the teleconnection talk so mostly stay out of it...but when its used to refute my opinion, I will give my opinion of it. Let's face it...we had that bad day some 7-10 days ago and the OP runs did pretty well in predicting a less than ideal pattern for the next 7-10 days coming up.

I am not banging anything, I was just talking about the current run of the GFS at the point Training posted the MU stuff. I did not look for a model, I just posted the current run and how it had changed from last night. The 6Z (and now 12Z) GFS was not a good look for us. Trying to forecast the MJO is voodoo stuff to me. It's one thing to say what phase we are in but (mostly on MA) suggesting what phase we will next be in is not forecastable, IMO. So discussing it is great but making definitive statements that it will happen, is not the best in my opinion. But when I made that statement, I did not have you in mind vs. the MA LR thread. Forecasting off teleconnections is akin to 200 and 300HR GFS maps in my opinion. One can say what the teleconnections show but they are modeled just like the OP runs. LOL, I am not mad. I have posted about snow chances several times in the last week....looking for a needle in a haystack as it were. I will say that some posts suggested we would be heading into a colder time starting now and I think that was off base.

I think we have to do MDT or MDT and another station. Backyards is tough! The 12Z GFS says we are all too low.

Basically the 6Z 15 day GFS

Yep. We are just throwing them out there. Honor system and memory :-).

It's hard to go against trend. But could be wrong. Seems CMC is in the low to mid 40's here.

Did you put a forecast in for the Christmas day contest? My 49 looks a bit low right now. May change.

In fairness, some of those same posters were talking pattern change as of today. Pattern may have changed but there is no cold progged to settle in over us the next 10-14 days. I personally am not looking beyond 10-14 days. Jan may very well be rockin.

I am just looking for a signal that we have a source of actual cold air. Highs in the Upper 30's to mid 40's is too warm IMO.

I am not writing off winter weather but the Op is doing what we all fear...kicking cans. Over the entire run, the daytime highs in the LSV stay below 40 only one day out of 15. Hope it's wrong (well my wallet would like it).

Yea, I was just talking about the Op run. I need to see that cold coming before I get too excited.

The clowns still have the deep trough but moved the orientation west a bit. Frankly the GFS runs makes me feel a bit sick. The cold air continues to stay locked away.

Heatmiser, we have not had much winter yet :-)

You know the drill. January will be 'rockin is the mantra. Lol

In the last 10 days someone posted last winter was bad and I told them to prepare to be corrected...but you never did?! LOL

Since you posted I would like to give a shout out to the NAM. It did fairly well in spotting the enhanced cold you guys would have this AM. I did not look at every model but the Nam gets bashed enough that it deserves kudos when earned. I am surprised there are many unvaxxed players left. I know the majority of PA is unvaxxed (land wise, population wise the city centers are highly vaxxed) but thought most sports players went with it.

Totally agree. We are only 18 days into winter. Patient in that something could happen and we are not in a total washout pattern. But assumptions that something great will happen is not good either, IMO. It's always tough when we never get deep cold over us so waiting to see that consistently modeled. The teleconnection's may support it but I personally need to see it modeled at least in the MR.

Oh not at all, I was just pointing out something with at least a modicum of interest in the models. But maybe someone was already on it? You have an SLP from both streams going by at the same time...and the southern system is loaded with moisture. MR models are having none of it right now though.

Have not been following much this last week, so guessing someone has already posted, but if the vorts are timed a bit differently mid to late week, we have a snow storm on our hands next week. Basing that off this AM's run.

The models have been depicting a Miller B like screw job for much of Southern PA. Dry, dry. If that happens some could get little to no rain.

49. And I would call seasonal with a few degrees of average.

It almost seems to be hitting Vax people more often. Maybe that is a result of more people being vaxxed (in metor areas at least) than not.