Bubbler86

I do not remember anyone punting either. Just a couple days ago we were talking about the Euro trying to spin up a coastal in the week after this one. It's early winter so we could get snow even in the worst of patterns and this is not the worst of patterns. @Blizzard of 93, if you separate the model discussion posts from the pattern discussion, then you will probably have less angst. Just my opinion.

January looked blank on the 6Z GFS.

I said was that I was doing a PBP on what the model showed. Specifically the lack of cold air in the Continental US at the end of the run. But I have frequently commented that I am not a fan of teleconnection forecasting, but by all means, anyone can speak about it. I did not reply to anyone's teleconnection post with anything negative. I did post a video stating that trying to pinpoint specific storms with teleconnections is like trying to hit a full court shot. That shot was damn funny, FWIW. Teleconnections do not drive the pattern....teleconnections are humans attempts at forecasting.

Here is what I think of the accuracy of teleconnection forecasting as it pertains to snow storms (its better for air masses.)

Show me the GFS January maps? LOL. No one is saying a pattern cannot change its simply a PBP of a model run. How much snow did you have on the GFS 24 hours ago? How much do you have on this Am's run? Over a foot vs. a couple inches. High near freezing on Christmas day 24 hours ago....now 65-70. Probably neither will be right but there is little to no good news on the 6Z GFS. The 24 hour prior GFS was also an 'Off model run".

I, nor many others, are not punting Blizz. We are discussing an Op model run. Doing anything else with it would be trying to interpret something that the model did not output. It's equally as valid as talking about teleconnections that are often completely misinterpreted. The GFS has regressed in its winter look over the last 24-48 hours.

And its important to note that most of the period this post is speaking about is past the full GFS run at 6Z.

You are looking for a storm, I am looking for highs in the 20's with a pipeline for more to come. If a storm were to wind up, it could pull down cold air but otherwise this looks like a Pacific dominated pattern. Run the full loop of the GFS run and you will see the true cold air does not break into the US for the entire run except a brief intrusion in the far North West and North Central. It could be worse but but there is no signs of BN normal temps kicking in.

My legs would be looking at my green grass with highs near 70.

I think we are all looking at different things. Blizz is looking for a storm while you and I are more concentrated on signs that winter is settling in. There are no signs of winter settling in on the 6Z GFS. This is a terrible look for near the end of the first third of winter. It's chilly here but there is nothing in the chute to kick winter in.

Worrisome that there are no posts up this Am.

Son's Christmas gift needs: done and done.

They are right in the thick of it still.

In fairness (one of your phrases! Lol) it does have moisture over running the lsv on Christmas evening..Just a tad warm. And 384 as an impending snow storm in the MA.

Flyers up 4-2 and could be only 5 points out of a playoff spot if they hold on.

You and canderson should consider a swap to satisfy each person's wind needs. Lol

You have been letting mdt punk you more as of late,

MDT surged 18 degrees in 5 hours to crush the record coming in at 68. If, ands and buts....however if it was a sunny day, the all time Dec high would have been challenged.

Ahh, ok. I found one in Hagerstown doing the quick test.

Ugg....I was hoping it would be hours. Some CVS's do not do the quick test. The home test cost me money. Quick test at CVS does not.

The first 18Z GFS of the week is running.

Speaking of travel, has anyone gone to CVS or other location and taken one of the fast Covid tests? I would ask in the Covid thread but prefer a local response to how it has gone around here vs. big city stories. Do you usually get results back within a couple hours? I may be around some non vaxxed people next Saturday.

Thanks. I will be back this week....or next week....I am so confused. The next Friday.

Oh shit, does that mean Christmas is only one week away?