Bubbler86

I saw the CMC had a flatter look instead of a West Coast trough.

The Cowboys got lucky at the end but will take it. Dak is looking a bit questionable right now. On this AM... After reading nut's last post, which was a good run down on the tellies, I see more reference to that 2M map I posted. As I said then, I am looking for a signal of sustained cold so if we get snow, it stays with us. I skipped the rest of the gfs when posting it as I cannot fathom we are going into a good pattern until we see better pattern signals in the LR. It was not just the gfs, if was the gefs and cmc ensembles. Key for me though is that I did not post it in response to anyone else's post...it was more a revelation on why no one else was posting model runs. So my apologies for offending anyone. Not here to ruin fun so I will steer clear of LR stuff that may annoy.

Personality, I never take anyone's posts as a forecast or definitely happening. Not really sure how this blew out of proportion today but for this board, I will be keeping the non snow posts to a minimum so I do not upset the 90%.

It would be trolling if one was posting negative news in follow up to someone posting positive news. But sort of silly to not post and discuss something because its not good news for snow.

I, nor many others, are not punting Blizz. We are discussing an Op model run. Doing anything else with it would be trying to interpret something that the model did not output. It's equally as valid as talking about teleconnections that are often completely misinterpreted. The GFS has regressed in its winter look over the last 24-48 hours. 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: I think discussing anything more than 7 days out is truly troop rally. Couple takeaways... Tellies were brought up a couple times by myself and others....and you've responded about your dislikes w/ them. Fine, you don't like em.....but to put a 5-10 percent valuation on them is based on what data?? I/we see many mets use them. You have somethin else in your weather bag of tricks....cool bud, we're all ears.....but to dismiss his, my or anyone else's assertion while using them..not sure I get that at all. At last check....many way smarter than me are still throwin darts at the meteorological weatherboard. You say you don't discuss op runs, but post often about them, and only a week or so ago we went back n forth over a 300+ hr map. That's way more than 7 days, and agree 100%...its just a troop rally and often not even worthy of a banter thread....if we could only have one. Quite frankly, tbh I'm as tired of seeing them posted as some are snow maps. We've all seen plenty of flip flops in 6 hr intervals, and there's plenty of data to back that statement up. Unless I've got it all wrong, most of us that discuss weather regularly (cept the red taggers), have limited skillsets, and as you stated, bring different stuff to the disco table. That's part of the fun and why many of us are here. I'd ask everyone here to in the famous words of Letterkenny "throttle r back 20", and lets try not to dissuade weather conversation on a weather board. I like many come here to discuss weather, and snow (or lack of) in particular, and parse through lots of off topic/unrelated banter in order to do so, with little to no moderation. Asking you all to think about that last part a bit. This is NOT an attack, but an attempt to keep it real in here when were only a couple weeks into an already challenging and preciously short season for us snow hounds. It's gonna be what its gonna be, but lets keep the convo flowing and not get snipy and clicky....like some other forums....we ARE better than that. I'm not here to be the best/most frequent poster...not my jam. Just want to chat up weather (and some fun) with good peeps. Nut, I stopped reading when you said that I said I do not discuss Op runs. It's basically my bread and butter. Lol I discuss any and all Op runs. Past 7 days it's just a fun discussion and is as much to help keep the forum active than anything else. But I do not just post the good stuff, I post my opinion of what the model depicted. It's not a forecast, its a discussion. I never once said anything negative to Blizz about his posts (that I can remember). This is a weather board and is in place to discuss weather. It's not a board where only positive snow friendly posts are allowed.

Agreed. In the end, I think we should all be able to post and respect others opinions. Most of the long timers here know how others post and what to expect.

I think discussing anything more than 7 days out is truly troop rally.

I would put teleconnections forecast potential at 5-10% if one is trying to forecast snow or specific types of weather. Patterns and air masses are surely better. No one thinks GFS LR maps are right but they do provide clues where a model thinks a pattern is going. The MJO in particular is one I really get frustrated with because people always assume it will go sequentially from one phase to another but every year we have LR forecasters hanging their heads when it does not happen as forecasted. And to add, there is no reason to defend Blizz. I did not reply to any of his telly posts. We all have our strengths. All this discussion today started with heart burn over my "not good" post to the entire 6Z GFS run....from start to finish.

Got to 54 today and it was downright buggy. Frustrating on the bug part.

Being at 384 I would not put too much thought into it the "pattern" shown at 6Z was not a good look with no cold air at all in the US. I think the Dec 20-23 threat is something to watch at least for some snow.

Gigantic difference in the 12Z GFS 350+ vs. 6Z...since we spoke about it so much. Trough drops down out west vs the Pacific controlled regime. Not snow news for us but cold air in the US.

Yep, there is a difference between posting what is real vs. down talking something.

Hey @Blizzard of 93, I do remember doing a PBP where i said it was brought to you by Jeff Feagles and Ray Guy. I was punting the PBP...meaning it was not worth doing. I was not putting December. LOL.

Very convoluted situation on the 12Z GFS in the upper 100's and lower 200's time frame. SLP's all over the Southern US.

You cannot blame anyone for believing it will turn for the better nor anyone who does not believe. All we have are the tools to try and discuss and make a forecast if one desires. I think the one thing most agree on is that in this current pattern, we can have a snow storm.

I do not remember anyone punting either. Just a couple days ago we were talking about the Euro trying to spin up a coastal in the week after this one. It's early winter so we could get snow even in the worst of patterns and this is not the worst of patterns. @Blizzard of 93, if you separate the model discussion posts from the pattern discussion, then you will probably have less angst. Just my opinion.

January looked blank on the 6Z GFS.

I said was that I was doing a PBP on what the model showed. Specifically the lack of cold air in the Continental US at the end of the run. But I have frequently commented that I am not a fan of teleconnection forecasting, but by all means, anyone can speak about it. I did not reply to anyone's teleconnection post with anything negative. I did post a video stating that trying to pinpoint specific storms with teleconnections is like trying to hit a full court shot. That shot was damn funny, FWIW. Teleconnections do not drive the pattern....teleconnections are humans attempts at forecasting.

Here is what I think of the accuracy of teleconnection forecasting as it pertains to snow storms (its better for air masses.)

Show me the GFS January maps? LOL. No one is saying a pattern cannot change its simply a PBP of a model run. How much snow did you have on the GFS 24 hours ago? How much do you have on this Am's run? Over a foot vs. a couple inches. High near freezing on Christmas day 24 hours ago....now 65-70. Probably neither will be right but there is little to no good news on the 6Z GFS. The 24 hour prior GFS was also an 'Off model run".

I, nor many others, are not punting Blizz. We are discussing an Op model run. Doing anything else with it would be trying to interpret something that the model did not output. It's equally as valid as talking about teleconnections that are often completely misinterpreted. The GFS has regressed in its winter look over the last 24-48 hours.

And its important to note that most of the period this post is speaking about is past the full GFS run at 6Z.

You are looking for a storm, I am looking for highs in the 20's with a pipeline for more to come. If a storm were to wind up, it could pull down cold air but otherwise this looks like a Pacific dominated pattern. Run the full loop of the GFS run and you will see the true cold air does not break into the US for the entire run except a brief intrusion in the far North West and North Central. It could be worse but but there is no signs of BN normal temps kicking in.

My legs would be looking at my green grass with highs near 70.

I think we are all looking at different things. Blizz is looking for a storm while you and I are more concentrated on signs that winter is settling in. There are no signs of winter settling in on the 6Z GFS. This is a terrible look for near the end of the first third of winter. It's chilly here but there is nothing in the chute to kick winter in.