Bubbler86

He is not having a good game. Hard to win with the passes he is making (IMO.

HRRR was way too high at the surface out here. Seems to be more correct further east in PA.

30 min or so.

Terrible holding call against Kelce.

Surprised we lost 4 degrees. Was thinking 1-2. Won't help 850 but may portend to more frz.

And flakes are flying in Rou'ville. 17/13.

I think it is a good thing for this situation....usually a bad thing though. LOL. If the coastal were going to move Northeast it would be a very bad thing.

Dropped from 21 to 17 now as the temps and DP meet and the virga should soon be seen through my window :-)

That would still be ~ 6 hours of snow with the depict. even at 1/2" an hour, we are plus 3!

It has regressed a degree here with no precip I can see as of yet.

Mt Joy gave a good wet bulb temp earlier. I am hoping for 1-2 degree drop. Its only 22 here still. Holding pretty good.

It looks great. Still hoping for 4" though not sure how much will be gone tomorrow AM.

MA ob's reporting little to no virga though its drier here so may be a bit before ground flakes when it gets up this far.

Bolded is an important point but not much to explain why Wxbell is higher than TT at the transition zone other than individual algorithms on each suite. Wxbell is the only map I can find that has York City over 4" using 12Z GFS data. Not saying Pivotal is right but Wxbell should not be higher than TT with the same data when the surface maps show sleet/frz will be part of the event.

Inland low is in Central TN right now per the SPC pressure maps.

If you look at the current temps, its already above freezing (surface) at the Jersey Shore including some 40's. Have to keep those easterly's away. Maybe Richmond did not. 850 line looks like it is near Richmond right now.

21/9 here.

It would be a nowcasting call like LWX did. Maybe under the premise that even though we lose 850's, there would be a lot more FRZ or Sleet than depicted on models.

That was a big raise this way. 5-8" LOL No WSW.

It's important to note that each site can be drastically different. Two people could be looking at the same model and say 'What is he talking about' depending which site they are looking on. Take York City today. Wxbell has 4-4.5", TT has 3-4", and Pivotal has under 3".

Just watched a video, from 7 years ago, where Ryan Maue explains how the Euro snow maps are done on Wxbell. He did not broach GFS. He said Euro output includes sleet AND Frz and he has an algorithm that attempts to back out the liquid equivalent. So this may explain why Wxbell maps are so different from TT and Pivotal re: each uses their own method. Here is TT for the 12Z GFS and its definitely lower in some areas despite including sleet. Important to know for model PBP. TT also uses the "SLR " which is explained by Ryan also below. Today's 12Z GFS on TT

Drought cancel! LOL. If this was all snow, Rou'ville would be hurting. You would be pushing 20" and I would be 6-8". LOL. Sharp cutoff.

HRRR has over 1" of rain for you. Dry slot is to your west. Crazy.

HRRR has 5 hours of moderate or better snow at MDT. So if it could get to 1" an hour average we could have an over producer there. Latest is 2-5 for most of the LSV with the ridges/somewhat higher ground in Western Cumberland going 5-6 it appears. Lots of rain East of the Susq and well north.

That is a fair call.