Bubbler86

LOL, I took his post as being right. I should have checked. I see the normal today for MDT is 49 (rounded). That means the forecast and modeled high temps at MDT are well BN every day over the next 5. Speaking of normal, it is not right now here. Wind chill of 18 and downright miserable out.

From what I have seen, the normal NWS Zone forecast very much follow modeled temps. I think it is rare that an NWS met deviates much from modeled temps outside 24-36 hours in advance when some meso/local forecasting skill is shown. Right now, your local NWS forecast shows near 50 for the 16th and near 60 for the 17th because most models are showing a system cutting to the west. Prior to that it is below or near normal. A few days ago, my zone said snow for tomorrow, now it says rain...models changed their depiction of the system.

The models show colder temperatures. Could they be wrong? Sure. The temps are forecast to be warmer for 2-3 days due to a low cutting to our west. Over this winter, LSV actual temps have pretty consistently been going above models temps.

30 this AM with winds gusting into the 30's already.

After that cutter you referenced above, it looks quite cold as of now. Fair to question anything on the longer range though.

Lanco is nammed.

That is the second or third time you have said that :-)

PSU got the digital crayons out and drew several maps to depict why ITT4 is the best chance this month.

Final tallies at 10:1 show the 25" line extending well into NE PA and the 12" Line extending back into the northern areas of this forum (pr right beside them). About 1/2-1" on average in Lanco. For Northern PA a few inches of that is today/tonight.

After a landfall at 102 it decides it costs too much to stay overnight any where near Boston and retrogrades back off the coast at 108.

Landfall into New England as a 979. This whole process still needs watched ever down here. The snow Tue AM in Lanco is with temps at or below freezing.

Would need it to tuck/turn to get eastern parts of this forum in later panels. It is party far off the NE coast at 90. Lanco does see some light snow at the end.

Getting stronger off the Delmarva as it climbs but too late for this forum at least for the front end.

I would think it would as to the lack of strengthening but the glass half full version is that it is prime for changes though no reason to think great changes.

Have a low organizing off the SE coast (slowly) and plenty of cold in the column but surface is toast.

Definitely not going to match 0Z it appears. 1003 vs. 996 at 0Z Monday at 7AM.

Sitting off the NC Monday AM. Light precip in much of PA...varying kinds.

Euro much more GFS like through 54. SLP is in TN with snow spreading into PA Sunday afternoon (light). Not much in the way of accums at those rates.

Euro has mixed precip in Lanco tomorrow AM...from the departing coastal. Temps are 35ish.

Did you see the end of the storm? Not that it matters that far out but to be fair that is A WSW for you (or readl close, sharp cutoff). LOL

Slight under 4" here. I do not measure in exacts like you do but fairly close. Easily the worst winter ever to this point as to snow accums. I know MDT has passed that figure for themselves though so it will not go down as the worst there.

That is fair re your forecast...but the models show it so still keeping an eye on it. The CMC depiction is near record breaking cold. GFS is just well BN cold.

After the third wave chance next weekend, both the GFS and CMC feature the coldest part of March to occur after next weekend. The CMC depiction is particularly damaging for the south. Probably overstated. GFS is also cold but not to this extent.

Nooners, light snow but no accums....34.