Bubbler86

It has been modeled but then the models waffle (both day to day and pattern forecasting such as the MJO) so not sure it happens but today's depcition is pretty extreme in the length of time it lasts. Over 1/3 of the month.

After seeing the cold thoughts relax on the GFS yesterday, they are back with a vengeance today. The northeastern 1/4 of the country is locked in winter with temps that would be normal for Jan over a very long stretch of the month.

By March standards, the GFS is back to being quite anomalous cold wise. In addition, without fail, a snow chance at 10 days.

Vodka cold for snow covered areas of North PA. 0.

It does snow in much of PA but the coastal is east bound.

Later on, the Icon spreads snow and rain over PA as a Chatanooga Choo Choo Approaches SW PA Sunday night while a new system forms off NC then heads east for a bit before being captured/phasing and pulled back toward New England. Not real impressive for most of us and even rain to start for NE. Having the low pivot back north is a big improvment from 0Z though.

Perusing the start of 12Z/Nooners. Nam has WAA snow in PA Friday afternoon but rain for the LSV. Low position is slightly south of 6Z. Too far out to put much stock in extrapolating IMO but not a lot of bagginess on the SE coast at hour 84 but some semblance of something near NC/SC. RGEM slightly further south with the blocked cutter and more bagineess in the SE allowing the LSV to stay snow at that time frame. RGEM has low forming on NC/VA border. Icon loser to the Nam and does not really form much south of us until it is heading to the East.

A departing cold mass makes a perfect way for a low to climb but not face suppression.

Mod-Hvy snow and 32 here right now. Looks like some good snows happening just west of Harrisburg. Pretty decent amount of snow for this far south.

The whole run is a veritable snow train. Ralph Wiggum is probably back to belt buckling.

32 here this Am. Saw it snowing overnight but no accums so not much to it.

On my phone but though hrrr and 3k showed at least an inch. Is it north of you on the maps? That heavy band is really skinny.

I figured @pawatch would have some good obs tonight.

Potentially exciting night for you guys. Even if you do not get 4", a 2-4" snow would be great this season.

I am not suggesting it is cancelled just doing a model post mortem. I think it is better if we get a real cutter vs. 3 almost ITT's.

The one thing a super bomb offshore risks is changing up the Vodka Cold/best since 1960 JB thoughts. Pulling ocean air from Georges Bank to the Baltimore Canyon is not exactly going to freeze us out. The lack of a system cutting to our northwest or north limits the chances for drainage into the country. Scanning through the 2M temp maps from 18Z yesterday vs. 18Z today shows a drastic difference.

We have been tooting about your snow since last week...PA is PA. LOL.

18Z GFS spins up a monster off shore for ITT2. Some comments on the MA suggesting it "just missed". It may be a little worse than just missed IMO but you move the whole setup west a bit and we have a super storm. Mid 960's pressure for the fishes here. The GFS really does a similar thing all 3 ITT's. Make a run for the lakes then Miller B past us.

Kuch up close. Pretty extreme and not a forecast.

The 3K snow map is crazy. A good ole namming up there.

18Z HRRR and 3K both stayed fairly steady on the location of the vort for tonight. The HRRR moved the main stripe of snow a tad south from 12Z. Some accums near ABE going into double digits on the 3K. Could be some pretty big totals in Central and NE PA and NJ if this stuff accumulates decently. Still some light stuff in the LSV on both...mix of light snow and light rain.

Coming from JB it may be an Impossible whopper.

Bastardi should be out with a whopper of a proclamation at some point today. The most recent thing up there is some (part of which is bad IMO but other may not think so) advise that Elon Musk posted.

I literally posted the same thing right when you did, buy me a coke. LOL.

ITT4 watching on from the Mountainous regions of the West US. Super blocky pattern. Prime for very large changes run to run as we have been seeing. Exciting.