The Rgem is not on board so that is a big sign that it may not happen but Nam, GFS, Fv3, Icon all quite cold. Nam is the coldest right now. Going to be a full potted plant in, covered other plants night unless the rgem is right.
Just past the midway point and temp wise MDT stands at -2.4 BN and a measly .15" of total rain putting them 1.71" behind normal for the month alone. As others have echoed on here, ag wise this is not good in having 2-3 weeks of little rain regardless of a bountiful bonanza in late April.
I think the MVP award is like a magnifying glass on the situation. I did not see the game but surprised in what I am seeing from some high profile tweets.
CMC has been caving to this front penetration predict by the GFS. GFS has been rock solid on this for days. This would be near state wide Freeze and Frost warnings. Nam on board.
Both April and May 2020 were between 3 and 4 degrees BN. Jan 2022 was -2.7 as a close one as well. Would be something to have 3 months of 3-5 BN in a row. Not something that is common for AN or BN. The Summer of 2009 had 3 months BN but not all 3 months were over 3 BN.
The only model that does not show rain in the LSV is the Canadian. Even Dr. No says yes though lighter than some of the other more siggy looks. Icon is close to being dry but certainly not Mostly Sunny.
They sit at a nearly 1.5" deficit so far this month. Next up is Tue. Looks promising for wet a lot of areas south. Want to keep the Paweather 540 line out of PA to allow for the front to straddle a bit farther north vs. the RGEM look though.
We saw some sun her late as well. Down to 59 now so a well BN high of 64 today in the West 'Ville. USGS need not stop out here for quite some time with rain also possibly coming Tue (and possible Frost). Blizz may have to post the drought maps for a while.
Frog strangler today.....best all day soaker in a long time. Slow, steady rain. Between .4" and .5" and the high so far was 64 at 9AMish. 61 right now.