Bubbler86

Same answer as yesterday, unsure. LOL. Just reading the models right now. With the chilly snap possibly coming late week I am going to go with May wrapping up its BN status. MDT was presented with a chance to have a decent AN day yesterday and sputtered in at 1/2 degree AN.

Current top/bottom 10 for May precip at MDT. The 4th annual Memorial Day wrecker stands between MDT and infamy right now. On the 6Z GFS it is totally dry at MDT until June while the CMC does loop the cutoff low into Eastern PA over the weekend ending the chances of a sunny Memorial Day and a record. Of the months already complete, only 1 has happened in the last 45 years.

Chilly 42 this AM. Up to 45 right now. No frost noted.

It is the make or break for the record with mdt at .19 now. Having the holiday wet is the unfortunate extra thing to consider. With no rain potentially be for at least 7 days, going to be seeing some brown grass.

18Z GFS dropped the Memorial Day soaker....but has another frost opportunity. Always manages to have some drama.

I had Mow 7 in today as well assuming it would rain some. With this grass watering I will have some grass going into June with is a plus. Mowing higher this year.

We got about .07" in the first wave...maybe a bit more behind it. Watered the grass. USGS not paying attention to it.

One of my spotters has light to mod rain a few miles west of Enola right now.

Approaching Harrisburg and not look too bad on radar.

Almost here. The sky is very dark.

The Roofus is not too bad for Western and Northern LSV today. Not going to change any drought designations but will water the grass. 3K not too far off this depiction. No droughts at the shore. This crappy trend of wet weekends there continues.

3X what MDT has had. USGS has to be getting their crayons out to color up the LSV on the drought map next week if nothing big happens today. This map is as bad as I have seen it (have not looked at it prior to moving back to PA). It was probably worse before the April rain but did not check it.

I will not try to forecast 7 days out. LOL. But the GFS has a very unsettled period around that time. CMC delays it a bit into early the following week.

51 for the low here...normal or slightly BN at MDT with 53. Does MDT break out of their recent BN streak today? Meso's suggest the front will be too slow and MDT will get to the required 77 to go AN today as they top out near 80. On the GFS, back to BN tomorrow then another week near normal heading into the holiday. Today is the warmest day, high temp wise, on the entire GFS run. The areas gets caught in a slow moving ULL as we move into Met Summer.

He did not comment on hitting 90, I was joking with my comment. He only said less and shorter heat waves. More of a normal summer. If may can hold on for Bn that will be 3 of the last 8 months Bn. Not great but not a 100 full on heatbox either.

His comments were Norm to slight above and less heat waves. Early summer not really summer but drier and hotter late summer,

Joe Calhoun put the wham jam on a hot summer. Do we get our first summer with no 90's?

It was not as embarrassing as Lisa Salters interview. This Nikolai is pretty good guy, I have never watched him. lol

Both the CMC and GFS would end the discussion of a record setting dry May (as depicted) when a whirling dervish low gets cut off over in the SE, slowly moves up the coast and minors out. CMC is less but probably enough to get us out of record territory. To the surprise of no one, Memorial Day is ditched sun and fun wise for many beach communities again.

And one of the worst flops ever. The king is a cheater. Bronny probably wearing a bag over his head today.

Amongst all this actual scientific talk and trivia, the real important data is Nooners at 65 with a stiff breeze making it less than comfortable in the shade.

Interesting trivia, the Year without a Summer, due to a Volcanic eruption, resulted in the writing of Frankenstein and may be the reason the bicycle was invented. https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/how-climate-works/mount-tambora-and-year-without-summer#:~:text=Snow fell in New England,The Year Without a Summer.”

We always debate heatwaves and whether it is 90 or above, or a certain number of degrees above Norm for a certain number of days...the US EPA defines a heatwave on the MINIMUM temp adjusted for humidity for the day, not the Max. Here are some stats showing the increase of heat waves over recent time using the criteria below. So, all of us were wrong using the EPA standards. Not much to argue with in these stats. No heat waves in June! https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-heat-waves Heat waves can be defined in many different ways. For consistency across the country, Figures 1 and 2 define a heat wave as a period of two or more consecutive days when the daily minimum apparent temperature (the actual temperature adjusted for humidity) in a particular city exceeds the 85th percentile of historical July and August temperatures (1981–2010) for that city.

Actually I missed another stretch, 1967-1979.

Quick eye count, MDT has reached 97 or above 14 times since 1995...so very close to 50/50 out of 29 years. The lack of 100's is the thing IMO. More humidity? Different temp taking locations? Unsure but the mantra of recent times being excessively hot are not all it stacks up to be when looked at it that way...the average is up but not extreme temps.