Bubbler86

We always debate heatwaves and whether it is 90 or above, or a certain number of degrees above Norm for a certain number of days...the US EPA defines a heatwave on the MINIMUM temp adjusted for humidity for the day, not the Max. Here are some stats showing the increase of heat waves over recent time using the criteria below. So, all of us were wrong using the EPA standards. Not much to argue with in these stats. No heat waves in June! https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-heat-waves Heat waves can be defined in many different ways. For consistency across the country, Figures 1 and 2 define a heat wave as a period of two or more consecutive days when the daily minimum apparent temperature (the actual temperature adjusted for humidity) in a particular city exceeds the 85th percentile of historical July and August temperatures (1981–2010) for that city.

Actually I missed another stretch, 1967-1979.

Quick eye count, MDT has reached 97 or above 14 times since 1995...so very close to 50/50 out of 29 years. The lack of 100's is the thing IMO. More humidity? Different temp taking locations? Unsure but the mantra of recent times being excessively hot are not all it stacks up to be when looked at it that way...the average is up but not extreme temps.

Outside the volcanic ash theory, I would agree at the UHI sites like the hothouse around and near Harrisburg. Harrisburg is on a run of only one 100+ day in 11 years , if you count this year which is obviously not set yet. That single 100 temp was right on 100 as well so as unimpressive 100 reading as you can get. The last time this happened at MDT is 1967-1979. So, we are setting a lot of yearly average records or near records without actual extreme heat. That suggests to me that whatever the reason is, it is going to take something extraordinary to not hit 90 at least once at the UHI sites. I do not think MDT has ever had a year without hitting 90 once. 1907 it was right on 90.

Lebron missing dunks and layups.

Imagine a whole year with no 90's. Seems like a pipe dream now. (Outside volcanic sky covering issues)

The latest drought map did not change much. ITT and MJS still in D0. A little surprised they are not banging down the doors of Harrisburg with the D0. Would really expect it to expand next week if Saturday fails.

Embedded bursts in Cali.

The meso's all have embedded bursts so maybe someone scores.

We made it down to 45. Still 10BN w/MDT stats. Someone may make a run for the 30's Sun Am. More west LSV favored for that one. Cashtown has been getting back into the W column with 42 this AM.

Windows open LSV several nights in a row. Even the warmer areas like MDT go well BN again tonight and again Sat night on the Meso's.

The gfs would possibly push us out of number one on May 31st but that is a 300+ map so...LOL.

Early 12Z's not looking great for Sat rain still. Colder runs have colder places getting into upper 30's or near 40 tonight for the LSV.

Going to take a shot at the next Potted Plant Advisory (PPA) as we come out of the one from this AM....Sept 21st. On the plus side (except those that love to burn) we are 13 days from day 1 of Summer and have experienced very little summer temps (80+) to this point so can check the box for no early summer this year.

It looks like they did 40. Their 5 min readings said 30's but must have been rounded up. 40 is 14 BN.

JNS made the mention you refer to above. One more Mow (#7) and that will be it until it rains again. Grass has almost come to a full halt, and I had a decent rain on Saturday. With the sun being so "close" we cannot go 4-5 days without rain and not have the ground start to parch. May is erasing everything late April brought.

The GFS has indeed backed down from its coming heat (still normal or slightly above) next week. This forecast would put us almost 1/3 into Met summer with no heat waves.

PS, it does not exactly match on monthly days, but you getting to 29/30 is the same as getting there on Sept 24 or 25 as to normals. Impressive. We just had a gust of wind to 34 here. That is a main reason we did not get below freezing as we never de-coupled completely. Too windy here.

I have seen a lot of posts the last two months saying that night might be the last 30's. This AM or tomorrow AM for some may truly be it for the season. Although like I commented yesterday, Williamsport has seen 30's in later June. FWIW, this is the first day this month MDT has made it into the 30's unless their readings are deceiving and it was actually 40. Today will easily be another BN at MDT making it 12 of 18 May days they end up BN so far.

That wundermap I just posted showed a 29 near you as well.

Extra cold near Harrisburg and slightly north,

That is amazingly low for May 18th. (Not questioning, it was forecast by some models). We have strawberries and they have survived this earlier in the spring. Might dip into the 30's again tonight up your way. Not below freezing though.

Low of 35 here. Not much frost. I see Cashtown is 33. Looks like MDT is 38 or 39 falling a few degrees short of their record.