Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
1123 AM EDT Mon May 8 2023
PAZ024>028-033>036-056-063-064-091530-
Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-
Franklin-Perry-Cumberland-Adams-
1123 AM EDT Mon May 8 2023
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.
.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.
An area of thunderstorms will move southeast across the
region very late tonight through the mid morning hours Tuesday.
Locally heavy rain of over one inch in less than an hour and
frequent lightning is possible with these storms.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
$$
MDT should break into an AN normal day today to break the streak after an AN low this AM. Tomorrow looks well BN with a possible midnight high coming up in 10 hours and the risk of a frost Wed AM and Wed may be BN as well.
The GFS depiction is not super warm the next few days after that easterly induced BN day Tue. Probably get into the low to mid 70's each day but that is close to Norm. 72 is norm for Thursday. Then the GFS drops the bottom out of the temps Monday the 15th. Other depictions are warmer later next week with the CMC showing 80's on Thur and Fri.
Just started raining here...very light. 68. May not even make 70 here today. CMC and Euro just caved to the Americans and Germans for Tue. Midnight high around 60 and low 50's just past lunch.
39 is 11 BN with MDT's numbers. Depends which suite of models you believe but if the GFS is close to right, it has been advertising about 1/2 of the next 15 nights being in the 40's for you. No freezes...soil temp would probably exceed 50 though.
The warmth is coming, just a BN stretch. The GFS has some warm days sprinkled in and lets face it, mid 70's will be normal in a week and mid 70's is not cool. But if we are ranting, damn you Voyager! LOL.
A mild 51 here this AM. GFS continues to promote more BN days than Normal or Above through its entire run. An afternoon high in the upper 40's and low 50's this Tuesday. The EC and Canadian are milder on Tue while the Icon and Nam both support the 20 BN daytime temps.
MDT easily scored another BN day yesterday running their streak to 14 but faces a chance of having one of the next two days slipping AN before the potential Tuesday chill due to an Easterly flow from a low scooting by to the south. MDT already has a 46 or 47 in the books for today so the high will need to get above 74 or 75 to get it too normal or above. They now stand at 7.8 degrees below normal for the month with an average temp below 52!
The norms for today are 71 and 50. Many of the days during this extended BN run have featured the lows leading the way.
Not ready to bite but still worth mentioning...several suites suggest MDT MAY make a run at 20 days BN in a row or maybe 18/19 out of 20. What looked like slam dunk warm days Sun and Mon and wavering a bit. Some suites do have it getting into the mid 70's tomorrow so a bit of a spilt. GFS has one AN normal day out of the next 6-7. Rain also arriving earlier tomorrow on some suites so today is the mow day! LOL.
We have been below normal 13 days in a row now with another one seemingly on tap today with MDT's low being 6 or 7 BN this AM. Will take a really hot high to overcome that...80ish. Not that this is shitty weather though. It's a beaut! . If it stays around 42 on May 19th, yes...wow. No one betting on that. LOL.
36 frosty degrees this AM. Special statement out for Fog for the areas outside for the LSV. Interesting stat that will not stand for long.... yesterday was both the warmest and coldest day in May so far at MDT.
I had not looked at the LR models much but did not see a ton of AN highs on the GFS (saw more on the CMC). Saw some early next week but then back into the 60's for highs. I have been busy this week so not checking until now. So may still be some cold nights to go. Maybe not, who knows. I think a surprise Frost is coming for some in the LSV this weekend (to include Friday AM as one of the possible mornings).