Yep, I was thinking it was more for model verification that to suggest it was right. Convection is convection though....I am not counting my drops until they are on the ground. The 3K was splitting prior to 12Z in defense...it is insisting.
Today may break it but MDT has not had a normal or AN day in Aug as of yet. Yesterday was the seventh consecutive day of BN temps at MDT (going back to July) and they stand at -2.6 for the month so far. MDT has now had one 8-day and two 7-day BN stretch's during Met summer. Who would have thought it.
Most models suggest a FFW will be needed somewhere in the next two days. Rgem shows 1-2" before dark tomorrow along the M/D line....GFS kicks the Pillow/Tamaqua split in the splits to come up with this by later Monday. GFS shows 1/2-1" over you before dark tomorrow but that is a convection bullseye.