Bubbler86

Models are not suggesting much....the GFS is fairly dry for the next 7 days. You can chop 1/2 to 2/3 off those totals in most areas as the precip maps are smoothed out and do not reflect the convective nature of what it is predicting.

I suspect the continued drought here plays a role in allowing slightly lower temps than normal. Only 1/2" of rain in the last 3-4 weeks.

59 for the low here this AM. Just 2-3 days ago, a soaker was on tap for this weekend.

You had said that before but to have a 2 point difference is not something I can accept as being proper mathematical statistical analysis for compare purposes. So, going away from the 30 vs. 100 plus year averages, the true numbers show July 2023 was warm and top 15 but not top 10 at mdt. I feel like it was a breeze compared to recent summer's. Glad you had a good day on the water.

You need to hit up MU and ask what aggregate means in this context. LOL. Over 1" in Newville being reported.

No doubt, that over 3 number caught my attention and thought I would ask since MDT finished 1.2 AN. I assumed he meant MU's number but cannot believe they are 2 degrees higher than MDT.

Not sure what his aggregate number is but the mean temp at MDT was 78.5 making it number 15 and 3.7 degrees behind number one 2020. Maybe someone can explain what the aggregate means....several stations taken together?

They are showing the same pattern as all summer, but of course past results are not a guarantee of future results, in blowing up as they approach the central LSV. That one just west of Carlise is a potential to be warned.

The great valley took out our storms again....heads up Harrisburg?

Good thing MJS did not catch that first!

Some small cells forming on the western edge of the LSV. The lottery is on.

Early nooners...another BN day appears possible with it only being at 77 under very hazy and smokey skies. MDT sitting at 80. The HRRR gets the convection cell lottery started between 3 and 4.

A smokey 64 for the low. Surface smoke was pretty bad last night and is totally blotting out the sun (higher up) this AM.

Chile is a crazy county in that is it is so long. It is like comparing temps in PA and Florida in Winter. I think it is normally hot all year in the Northern Chile desert but not sure about the Andes area so would be interesting to hear more about this if anyone has more details. Did not see much on a quick Google search.

12Z HRRR continues to promote scattered showers/convection Thursday afternoon and night for much of Southern PA. 6Z Rgem as well...Nam a bit stingier.

The models last night were also showing the valleys lower than the higher spots. The yellow on this previous HRRR shows some of the higher elevations like mine and Western Adams (yellow meaning over or near 60).

58 for the low, 61 now.

Definitely smoky at the surface now. Not as bad as before but can smell. On mow #10 and done for the summer for now.

12Z Globals and the CMC will not relent on keeping a shortwave near us Sunday while the GFS and Icon focus energy more down along the SE coast and leave us dry. CMC is an LSV soaker for Sunday.

Late nooners....smoke filtered sun and 74.

Quite smokey up top this AM. A little at the surface but mostly a sun blocker.

All the globals, except the CMC, have pulled the plug on our widespread rain event for this weekend. A surface wave is no longer progged to undercut PA. The Icon lead the way on losing our soaker if it does come to pass.

53 for the low this AM. 55 right now.

That does not work IMO unless you get an irrigation system to run at night. You need .15 to .25 of water to mean anything so you have to spray directly down on the grass and soak it. Any less and you promote weak root growth. Sprinklers are ok at night but not going to leave them running all night plus we are not supposed to be watering our yard so sprinklers would be too much. I risked walking around the yard with the hose tonight. One rule of thumb I read was putting an empty tuna can near the sprinkler and when it is full, that is enough. I would guess that would take 2-3 hours per section of yard. Ugly.