Bubbler86

PS, my favorite spot is parking in the first parking area and going to the group of tables to the right of the path over the bridge. There is one table there that almost sits out over the creek because of the shape of the land. Lots of small snakes in the rocks under that area.

ITT Fall Day 1. In the books.

Outside the Chevy Chase jokes, I think for some of the dry locales, it has been accentuated by the way the totals have tallied up. Long stretches of nothing but T's and then a 1-2" hammer making the numbers look better than they really are as it pertains to vegetation. 1/4"-1/2" of an inch every 3-4 days is much better than 3" totaled over 2 days then close to nothing the rest of the month. Totals look similar but on the ground results are much different. Here is states evidence exhibit A to back your beautiful summer claim:

Those "high lows" will cause MDT to be slightly above normal for Aug as well like MJS mentioned a few days ago. Overall Met summer is well BN at MDT due to June's large departure. Looks like MDT will end up the 4th coolest summer since 2010 mean wise and 5th coolest high temp mean wise with 2017 being the last cooler date in both circumstances. Not great at all full history wise but still a break from the previous 5 year frying pan. Low temp wise, 2023 is currently tied for second coolest since 2010 (again 2017 the last one). MDT's lows have been "high" for quite a long time. Have to go back to the 1990's to see a time when MDT was cooler at night more than a random year. Some lowers numbers form the 1990's are 62.4 and 63.7. I say HIA.

As I was mentioning in the other replies, I think the highs this year, over here at least, have been "not so hot". Hot compared to full historical records but not hot compared to 2000's.

I actually do think we are warming as a whole. But was nice to score some 40's down here in Aug for once.

12Z GFS backed down a SLIGHT bit on its extremes and CMC moved a slight bit up but still some pretty big differences. Both models end the heat wave next weekend.

Cashtown's rig in 1982

Definitely warmer now than in the past....just does not come off to me as one of the warmest summers in recent times for the state. Those location low's you pointed out are extreme, but the highs were not extreme at all this summer. Just think some credence should be given to us getting a bit of a break this summer vs. many of the last 5-10.

I am saying that not everyone had the extreme warmth of those two stations.

It matters because it points toward just one piece of the puzzle in the overall big picture of warming for our area. Saying Dubois never made it below 51 when areas of far southern PA did, begs to question what the Dubois number means. Cashtown's Rig is probably up to or above the level of some first-order stations around the state and he is very much not a valley location as least in terms of LSV elevations. With that said, his 40's reading was a specific event but with any mention of situations that are the "warmest ever" some weight has to be given to other areas within the state that did not face the same level of record. 2023 has been one of the driest summers ever in my area but most posters here did not face the same extreme situation so I cannot state that PA is drying out. I am right there with you that our state/country is warmer now than it has ever been during modern times, but this summer is not a good example of it IMO as it is just low temps leading the way this year. High temp wise, this was one of the cooler summers in recent summers so that has to be added to any convo.

We had 2 posters in the LSV reach the 40's this month with one being the NWS's favorite weather person in Adams county (Cashtown). I reached 50 two times here on the M/D line @ 800-900 feet.

Windows open at 11AM on the last day of Met summer, 67 degrees.

This is why I have been steadily watching the runs over the last few days....the GFS was always on an island with its extreme temps and the Euro was partially supporting but not so anymore. And the assumption that the second full week of Sept would be hot was always something that was at best 50/50 to me....this does remind me of how we see extreme cold events in the winter and discuss effects a week or two out only to see them minor out as the event gets closer.

Yea, I am on board with it being hot next week but the Euro has indeed been extreme on both sides you mentioned too often this year. Canderson and CXY probably see over 94 next week.

In this case it was a good step down for those that do not want heat. Euro knocked 4-7 degrees off its highs from yesterday (on the hottest days.). But yea it is super dry mostly Harrisburg and South. I just posted yesterday that HGR is under 16" for the year which is ludicrous.

To add on to the evolving situation, the highest 18Z temp next week on the Euro is now 91 at MDT. Low 80's next Sat at 18Z.

6Z GFS starts a wetter pattern 6-7 days from now...not wet, just wetter. Ends the Heat Wave on Thur next week.

Tale of 2 different states....North 2/3 vs. South 1/3. Meet up in Gettysburg to hash this out?

The Great LSV Drought of 2023 is starting to eclipse 2020 for me....

An unlastdayofsummerlike 50 this AM.

12Z EC Sun-88 at 18Z (like the Icon and 7 below the GFS) Mon-88 at 18Z (11 degrees below the GFS) Tue-93 at 18Z Wed-95 at 18Z Thur-96 at 18 Fri-87 at 18Z So, a couple days which are possible 100's but timed different than the GFS. Sunset about ~15 min earlier by next Fri.

Some may not open at all if they have no AC. But again, not all globals are on board with excessive heat at least early week (much over 95.)

18Z on Sunday at MDT: GFS Says near 95 CMC says near 85 Icon, which apparently won the short-term model forecast for Idalia says 87....a lean toward CMC. 18Z on Mon at MDT: GFS says near 100 CMC says 90-91 Icon says 90