Bubbler86

12Z GFS backed down a SLIGHT bit on its extremes and CMC moved a slight bit up but still some pretty big differences. Both models end the heat wave next weekend.

Cashtown's rig in 1982

Definitely warmer now than in the past....just does not come off to me as one of the warmest summers in recent times for the state. Those location low's you pointed out are extreme, but the highs were not extreme at all this summer. Just think some credence should be given to us getting a bit of a break this summer vs. many of the last 5-10.

I am saying that not everyone had the extreme warmth of those two stations.

It matters because it points toward just one piece of the puzzle in the overall big picture of warming for our area. Saying Dubois never made it below 51 when areas of far southern PA did, begs to question what the Dubois number means. Cashtown's Rig is probably up to or above the level of some first-order stations around the state and he is very much not a valley location as least in terms of LSV elevations. With that said, his 40's reading was a specific event but with any mention of situations that are the "warmest ever" some weight has to be given to other areas within the state that did not face the same level of record. 2023 has been one of the driest summers ever in my area but most posters here did not face the same extreme situation so I cannot state that PA is drying out. I am right there with you that our state/country is warmer now than it has ever been during modern times, but this summer is not a good example of it IMO as it is just low temps leading the way this year. High temp wise, this was one of the cooler summers in recent summers so that has to be added to any convo.

We had 2 posters in the LSV reach the 40's this month with one being the NWS's favorite weather person in Adams county (Cashtown). I reached 50 two times here on the M/D line @ 800-900 feet.

Windows open at 11AM on the last day of Met summer, 67 degrees.

This is why I have been steadily watching the runs over the last few days....the GFS was always on an island with its extreme temps and the Euro was partially supporting but not so anymore. And the assumption that the second full week of Sept would be hot was always something that was at best 50/50 to me....this does remind me of how we see extreme cold events in the winter and discuss effects a week or two out only to see them minor out as the event gets closer.

Yea, I am on board with it being hot next week but the Euro has indeed been extreme on both sides you mentioned too often this year. Canderson and CXY probably see over 94 next week.

In this case it was a good step down for those that do not want heat. Euro knocked 4-7 degrees off its highs from yesterday (on the hottest days.). But yea it is super dry mostly Harrisburg and South. I just posted yesterday that HGR is under 16" for the year which is ludicrous.

To add on to the evolving situation, the highest 18Z temp next week on the Euro is now 91 at MDT. Low 80's next Sat at 18Z.

6Z GFS starts a wetter pattern 6-7 days from now...not wet, just wetter. Ends the Heat Wave on Thur next week.

Tale of 2 different states....North 2/3 vs. South 1/3. Meet up in Gettysburg to hash this out?

The Great LSV Drought of 2023 is starting to eclipse 2020 for me....

An unlastdayofsummerlike 50 this AM.

12Z EC Sun-88 at 18Z (like the Icon and 7 below the GFS) Mon-88 at 18Z (11 degrees below the GFS) Tue-93 at 18Z Wed-95 at 18Z Thur-96 at 18 Fri-87 at 18Z So, a couple days which are possible 100's but timed different than the GFS. Sunset about ~15 min earlier by next Fri.

Some may not open at all if they have no AC. But again, not all globals are on board with excessive heat at least early week (much over 95.)

18Z on Sunday at MDT: GFS Says near 95 CMC says near 85 Icon, which apparently won the short-term model forecast for Idalia says 87....a lean toward CMC. 18Z on Mon at MDT: GFS says near 100 CMC says 90-91 Icon says 90

I sometimes have slight variances in totals because I am not always exact like some of you guys so I am in the upper 16"'s as to the whole year. Using MDT's averages that puts me well into the double digits in being behind the 28-29" which I think would be the norm at MDT now. Officially MDT is my station, but HGR is closer and using those numbers I am in the 9-10" behind area I believe.

MDT only has ~23" so most down south are not close to your 35.

Gators like to swim in storm surge as well.

Large areas of N MD and some parts of WV are in the same boat.

We have had less than 17" of precip since Jan 1. You are probably in the 30's or maybe even 40's.

Some people down here have not mowed since June.