Bubbler86

Pretty substantial expansion of D0 on the latest drought map.  Will probably shrink some in 7 days.    D2 just south of the M/D line.   All that rain in pillow this summer and still in D0. 

Happy Thanksgiving everyone. 37 here this am.

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Purely a qualitative thought on my end, but it seems like the 06z guidance is routinely dry year after year.

Most people know to take any GFS mention (op or ens) past 5 days with a huge gRAIN of salt when it talks about qpf or slp locations.   

This is interesting so going to expand on this back farther and show the area where things have changed as to what many of us notice (and this has been stated a lot by many here.)  Red line showing the cooler years are going up consistently.  This past summer was seen as a success for not being too hot but was hotter than any other "cooler year" since the early 80's. 

47 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

I have now been at my current home location for 20 years this week here in East Nantmeal. I have taken daily weather observations every day of those 20 years. I have used the exact same station equipment (Davis Vantage Pro 2 solar fan aspirated model) sited at the exact same spot on my property. I thought I would begin to share some of those individual 20 year records.

Thanks for posting.  Here is the same chart for MDT and Williamsport summers as a compare.  Summer is based on seasonal met summer as defined by the NWS...June, July and August. 

6 minutes ago, Voyager said:

What universe is that in?

The Myra asteroid belt. 

38 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

53 at 11am under slowly clearing skies.

A bit cooler over here at 49.  Have not had any sun yet.    MDT has leaped Lanco and is 55/56.    A recent rare occurrence where they are out pacing the models. 

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

This is the stuff that makes you shine. Great insight.

Post of the month stuff even if it is not exact.  Hard to make a call like that. 

1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Putting my feet to the fire; I like it!  MJS performs best under pressure!  *whispers* I'll stop talking in third person now

Back to business.  The last couple of days of the month are still pretty far out so tough to get an exact read on, but I'm going with temps a little cooler than what some of the long-range commercial forecasts are currently showing.  All in all, I calculated a final nine-day average temp of 38.6, which would be good for a negative 2.5 degree departure off the current average temp of 47.0.  Put it all together, and I'm predicting a final mean monthly temp of 44.5, a few tenths below the climate normal period average and a few tenths above the entire period of record average.  Put simply, can't get much more of an average November than that.  Book it.

Good stuff!   Makes my head hurt to do all that mathin'.  MJS in the book.

11 minutes ago, paweather said:

Looks like a winter morning. 

Yea, last winter.....in the 50's.  LOL.  The hot house this week, Lancaster, is already in the mid 50's. 

@Mount Joy Snowman MDT is .6 AN right now for the month and I suspect that goes up the next 1-2 days especially with a current standing low of 46 for the day...will they end Nov AN, BN or within .1 of either side of the line? 

10 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Two things I took from this storm, with both being things we all agree on and hope to carry forward through the winter season, are that it was modeled extremely well and was a bit of an over-performer.

Agreed.  The amount of mod-hvy qpf was something I have not seen since last winter or early spring.  Hopefully a good sign. 

18 minutes ago, Coop_Mason said:

2.49 house 

2.81 Fairfield 

We ended up very close to 2 1/2" here.    Will push to avoid this being the driest year ever.   GFS is totally dry over its entire run though (LSV.) 

12 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Mine is very green too despite several hard frosts.

I do not record when the grass goes "dull" in winter but does seem later this year.  I had a temp of 23 as a low for the fall.  Looking at the GFS I have a shot in the last 8 days of fall to beat that 23. 

9 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Maybe you can even sneak in a secret mow this week, just to pad the books for 2023

If I were the snow mow type I could definitely mow as it is high enough, but I like to let it sit at 2-3" through the winter.    Grass is very green despite the frosts. 

6 minutes ago, pawatch said:

We hit 49 yesterday for the high. Was a nice day to stay inside.

The coal stove = 71 degrees yesterday which was a nice heat.

That was higher than some stations down here.  Quite a jump up there.    Mesos have backed off highs the next two days to low to mid 50's LSV/Low 50's MSV today and upper 40's to low 50's LSV/mid to upper 40's MSV tomorrow.   Some Meso's were pushing 60 in the LSV today as of yesterday. 

8 minutes ago, pawatch said:

1.15” for rain total yesterday and overnight. Still a light sprinkle this morning.

44 degrees

Bubb you won’t have to water anything this week!

Some much needed rain for the river, it was low and clear. Should make fishing a little better. River Water temperature 44 degrees up here.

Gearing up for turkey day tomorrow, smoking 7-8 tomorrow.

No doubt, finally a break for the water bill.    44 here this AM.  MDT feel just short of 50 yesterday at 49.  LNS was leading the way all day and spiked to 53 last evening with some WU temps nearing upper 50's at 56.   Did not check Williamsport's but the 50's were not supposed to invade that far.  

8 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Cold November rain…

Could have made the same song for every winter month last season. 

1.9" so going to make a run for 2.5" as the final line of heavy rain approaches.  

Up to 1.6" here. 

37 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Up to 45 here now. I'm impressed with how the temperature is responding this afternoon. Winds are starting to crank and the rainfall rate is increasing. 

The temp rose faster than nanny's libido.  

Just hit 1" and it is coming down fast. 

45 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I think temps shoot up tonight. Wouldn't be surprised to see the 50s come morning.

Mesos still have low to mid 50's 7 or 8ish to midnight.   Will see how that works out.   They have low 40's right now which is pretty spot on here and LNS sitting at 43 right now.  The Harrisburg stations are lagging 2-3 degrees.  

1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

 

Add me to the confirmation list.  Went out for lunch with the fellas and was colder and just generally more miserable than I expected.  What did they say our high should be today, because man it sure doesn't feel like we're getting there.  Although I guess this is one of those scenarios where the temp rises after sundown due to WAA being more potent than diurnal drops.

Yep.  Midnight high coming up maybe,