Bubbler86

Late nooners.  Steady rain for several hours now.  About .4" and 40 degrees. 

28 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

I see some of you neighbors to the west have reported some light snow and sleet this morning. If we see some light precip making it his far east we may see some ourselves this AM. The steady rain should arrive around the 2pm hour today and last through about 4am Wednesday morning. Most models show a general 1.5" to 2.0" of rain. We are over 5.5" below normal in the rain department this year. After today dry weather should continue through the holiday weekend. Tomorrow looks to be our one day with above normal temps before a return to below normal weather for most of the next week.

Records for today: High 76 (1900) / Low 17 (1951) / Rain 2.29" (1952) / Snow 1.5" (2008)

Most meso's have the LSV punching into the 50's this evening so decent chance MDT is AN at least 2 of the next 3 days if models are to be believed.   MDT needs to make it to 54 today to come in normal.   The warmer lows Wed and Thur may make it easier to get AN those days. 

37 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Is this before Cashtown has scored? Or did he get some (heh) a few weeks ago when folks like MAG and I scored?

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10 minutes ago, Coop_Mason said:

I had a trace at house.  Up to 1” on ridge tops to my west 

My house between Pen Mar and High Rock is about 1 1/4" for the year.    Trace here in Rou.   No accums on the roads though. 

36 this Am.  Had some rain or snow earlier that slightly got the pavement wet and some random rain drips falling now. 

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Although I  generally agree, the problem we've been having is that all the ensembles are showing 1" of snow or less over their entire 360 or 384 hr runs. As long as that's the case, I  just disregard operational snowfall as flukes with no "real chance" of happening. I guess that was my point with a weenie defeatist attitude.  Lol

Totally understand.  The safe bet is to error on the side of brown yards.   If anything, I was more suggesting any snow shown on ensembles is questionable if it was there because two members showed it and the rest did not, but the average was pulled up by the 2.   So, I concur!  LOL

3 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

I busted TheDreamTraveler and TheClimateChanger of being the same person. I thought my sluthery was without precedent, but Bubbler informed me I dum an slow.

TimB then ripped the mask off and said it's been him. I called him sloppy.

TheDreamChangerClimateTraveler then said some bullshit.

How's that?

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Not at all saying your sleuthing was wrong, really agreeing with you in that someone else saw it.  

2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Screenname is 16 letters with "the" followed by a descriptor, first letters capitalized, both come here to generally take a watery shit on winter. I smell a rat.

Both of you. Take a selfie of you holding today's newspaper. Do it now.

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I know of one other person who told me they wondered the same thing.   Posting styles are a bit different though. 

Eb Nooners... Mostly Sunny and 45.  Feels chilly. 

10 hours ago, mitchnick said:

We need consistent support for snowfall on the ensembles or we're just getting our chains jerked by the operationals imho. Ensembles have all had a run here and there that looked promising, then lost it. Just too early for anything legit unfortunately.  

The frustrating side of following ensembles for specific weather in my opinion.  Good for verification of Op's and large-scale atmospheric forecasts but for slp's and day to day reality, they can jump around just like the op's since they are essentially a group of op's (sometimes lower resolution) running the same data but with slight deviations to try and capture all the different possibilities.   For specific details, I think one has to look at each member of an ensemble and see if the LR forecasts are similar as just looking at the resulting average map does not give us any idea of how much variability there was among the members. 

18 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

A cold 23 again this morning.

35 here now though it got to 33 earlier. 

18Z GFS is very interesting in the 300's.   Before that a wet Nor'Easter next weekend and a few days in the 50's next week including Turkey Day. 

Looks like CXY made 59/60...MDT 57/58 today.  

1 minute ago, canderson said:

56 at 1:30. Just came on from 2 hours out moving leaves around to the curb. You s think living in the city I would’ve have many - if I bagged these leaves I’d have 30+ bags. 

They all blew in from the 'Burbs.   56 here as well.  Another above normal day in the books. 

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Enjoy! Great day to be there. I'm jealous!

53 here as well.

Not much wind so shorts and t-shirt day.

Nooners. 53 at Caledonia state park.

1 minute ago, Atomixwx said:

I mean, until they're wrong they're right lol. After three lousy years, a lot of people are in agnostic about winter.

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No disagreement big picture but winter starts over a week from now....Maybe wait until Jan?

The typical model can-kicking of cold temps has caused another prominent MA poster to throw shade on winter as a whole.  LOL

10 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

24 was the low here. these are like normal lows for January.

Your lows are extraordinarily low because of your valley.  Most of us are not see anything like that.  Even THV was at 28 and the have spiked to 41 already.  

32 for the low here.  Looks like a great day.  55-60 for the LSV based on meso's.  GREAT weekend fall weather.   MDT solidly above normal the last 3 days and could be An again today. 

Michigan having trouble with the Terps. 

Sleet in my zones for Mon night.  Got to 55 here this afternoon though that is short of the 57 midnight high.  MDT has been pushed to almost 1 degree AN for the month now.  

A chilly 40 here. 

1 hour ago, paweather said:

Its all good. I like to be trolled. It is that time of year for me. HAHA! 

Not sure anyone is trolling you but if they are they should not be, probably best to not call out people by name though.  

5 minutes ago, paweather said:

Not sure I was there for that one. I was before Marcus. Can't remember what I used. 

If before Marcus then it was the neweather Usenet group as Marcus was part of the first html based group if my memory is correct. 

5 minutes ago, paweather said:

No doubt about it! He has been around a very long time like I have been. He knows more about weather than a lot of us. 

He was part of our Usenet group as well.....back in the 90's. 

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Not completely true - he has already cancelled the winter of 24-25, but he's about to cancel this winter. Just not yet.  LOL

Ji is the smartest comedian here - I make sure that I'm not eating or drinking when he's active posting. Guy is legit funny. Like I said, he knows when to play his game though because he really does have a great knowledge/understanding. 

JI is one of the founding fathers of this type of board....he knows a lot more about weather than he lets on and like you said, enjoys the attention of being the funny guy.  Dude monetized his weather skill so have to give props there.