Both the 12Z CMC and GFS have qpf numbers similar to that EC map Mitchnick postered yesterday (front passage next week at this time.)  Drought denting type. 

Just now, canderson said:

You’ve been warmer than me all week.  54 here. 

We continue to have a southwesterly component which screws me being on the wrong side of the mountain for it.   I get no valley protection.    57's and 58's a plenty over here.

58 and Mostly Sunny here. 

15 minutes ago, paweather said:

I didn't mean just snow but colder. Just got to lay the groundwork LOL.

ITT's post was about snow, so I was posting ouch in respect to MU's forecast that says no snow is in the cards for at least 2 weeks.  Sorry about the confusion.  

9 minutes ago, paweather said:

I didn't take it that way. 

Not a forecast from me, just what he said. 

In a pattern like this, there is essentially a "nil" chance of any early-season snow for at least the next two weeks. During an El Niño, there is often a "split flow" Jet Stream pattern. Storm systems associated with the southern branch of the jet track across the southern tier of the nation, while those associated with the northern branch trek across southern Canada or northern New England. In between, there is often a lack of precipitation and milder air (relative to average). This is why there can be long stretches of quiet weather during an El Niño winter. However, major Nor'easters often form and dump crippling amounts of snow in the mid-Atlantic and I-95 corridor when the two branches of the Jet Stream "phease," or join forces. After a quiet start, I suspect that this happens at least once between mid-January and late-February. So hang in there, snow-lovers.. your time will come! -- Elliott

26 minutes ago, paweather said:

Expected for near term late next week should start the fun I hope. 

MU's Near term is into Dec.  

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

I left the post as is intentionally, I did not want to add any commentary. Anyone who reads can take away what they want. 

I added near term to my post to clarify. 

5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

MU's thoughts on the upcoming pattern and snow chances:

https://www.millersville.edu/weathercenter/forecasts/weather-discussion.php

Ouch for near term. 

10 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

So he's probably wrong...again!

There is a bulge in the southeast (yes, funny) on Wed/Thur but it flattens out on all 3 globals.   The Paweather post Turkey Day cold bullies it. 

13 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

JB was going out on the limb yesterday saying the models were wrong. He expects a big storm along the east coast prior to Thanksgiving.

The ULL map on all 3 main MR models is pretty transitory around here.  Quick rainer Wed for us.   EC winds a low in the GL.  

59 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Compare my average month temp to MDT for November.

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000
CXUS51 KCTP 150900
CF6MDT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6)

                                          STATION:   HARRISBURG PA
                                          MONTH:     NOVEMBER
                                          YEAR:      2023
                                          LATITUDE:   40 11 N      
                                          LONGITUDE:  76 46 W    

  TEMPERATURE IN F:       :PCPN:    SNOW:  WIND      :SUNSHINE: SKY     :PK WND 
================================================================================
1   2   3   4   5  6A  6B    7    8   9   10  11  12  13   14  15   16   17  18
                                     12Z  AVG MX 2MIN
DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD  WTR  SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX    SPD DR
================================================================================

 1  48  36  42  -8  23   0    T  0.0    0 13.3 25 310   M    M   4        36 290
 2  51  32  42  -8  23   0 0.00  0.0    0  5.7 14 190   M    M   1        17 200
 3  62  31  47  -2  18   0 0.00  0.0    0  5.3 15 180   M    M   1        21 180
 4  62  36  49   0  16   0 0.00  0.0    0  1.3  6 150   M    M   6         8  50
 5  67  45  56   8   9   0 0.00  0.0    0  3.6 16 330   M    M   4        20 320
 6  62  39  51   3  14   0 0.00  0.0    0  4.7 12 180   M    M   5        17 170
 7  75  47  61  13   4   0 0.00  0.0    0  7.4 24 270   M    M   5        32 310
 8  57  41  49   2  16   0 0.00  0.0    0  5.0 13 350   M    M   3        16 350
 9  63  43  53   6  12   0    T  0.0    0  5.7 18 320   M    M   7        24 320
10  54  38  46  -1  19   0    T  0.0    0  8.0 23 210   M    M   6        29 220
11  56  36  46   0  19   0 0.00  0.0    0  4.9 12 310   M    M   4 1      15 300
12  50  32  41  -5  24   0 0.00  0.0    0  2.5 12 290   M    M   3        20 280
13  55  28  42  -4  23   0 0.00  0.0    0  3.3 13 220   M    M   1 8      19 240
14  58  32  45   0  20   0 0.00  0.0    0  6.0 17 330   M    M   1        28 320
================================================================================
SM  820  516       240   0     T  0.0     76.7          M       51              
================================================================================
AV 58.6 36.9                               5.5 FASTST   M    M   4    MAX(MPH)  
                                 MISC ---->    25 310                 36 290   
================================================================================
NOTES:
# LAST OF SEVERAL OCCURRENCES

COLUMN 17 PEAK WIND IN M.P.H.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2

                                          STATION:   HARRISBURG PA
                                          MONTH:     NOVEMBER
                                          YEAR:      2023
                                          LATITUDE:   40 11 N      
                                          LONGITUDE:  76 46 W                   

[TEMPERATURE DATA]      [PRECIPITATION DATA]       SYMBOLS USED IN COLUMN 16    

AVERAGE MONTHLY: 47.7   TOTAL FOR MONTH:      T    1 = FOG OR MIST              
DPTR FM NORMAL:   0.1   DPTR FM NORMAL:   -1.37    2 = FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY  
HIGHEST:    75 ON  7    GRTST 24HR     T ON  1- 1      TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS      
LOWEST:     28 ON 13                               3 = THUNDER                  
                        SNOW, ICE PELLETS, HAIL    4 = ICE PELLETS              
                        TOTAL MONTH:   0.0 INCH    5 = HAIL                     
                        GRTST 24HR  0.0            6 = FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE 
                        GRTST DEPTH:  0            7 = DUSTSTORM OR SANDSTORM:  
                                                       VSBY 1/2 MILE OR LESS    
                                                   8 = SMOKE OR HAZE            
[NO. OF DAYS WITH]      [WEATHER - DAYS WITH]      9 = BLOWING SNOW             
                                                   X = TORNADO                  
MAX 32 OR BELOW:   0    0.01 INCH OR MORE:   0                      
MAX 90 OR ABOVE:   0    0.10 INCH OR MORE:   0                      
MIN 32 OR BELOW:   5    0.50 INCH OR MORE:   0                      
MIN  0 OR BELOW:   0    1.00 INCH OR MORE:   0                        

[HDD (BASE 65) ]                                                                
TOTAL THIS MO.   240    CLEAR  (SCALE 0-3)   6                                  
DPTR FM NORMAL    -4    PTCLDY (SCALE 4-7)   8                                  
TOTAL FM JUL 1   493    CLOUDY (SCALE 8-10)  0                                  
DPTR FM NORMAL  -100                                                            

[CDD (BASE 65) ]                                                                
TOTAL THIS MO.     0                                                            
DPTR FM NORMAL     0    [PRESSURE DATA]                                         
TOTAL FM JAN 1  1178    HIGHEST SLP M ON M        
DPTR FM NORMAL     6    LOWEST  SLP 29.71 ON  7        

I know you are colder because you are in a valley (my above freezing temp this AM continues to question how much elevation means around here.) 

3 minutes ago, paweather said:

Thanksgiving Day brrrr:

That cold shot is on the surface maps but not until after Thanksgiving.  Highs in the 50's on Turkey day on the 6Z Op. 

14 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

22.8 here!

11 degrees colder than MDT!   Down to 33 here. 

34 this AM.  

Made it to 57 here today.  MDT topped out at 58 and ended the day 1/2 degree BN, CXY 2.5 degrees AN with a warmer low of 37.  

15 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Anyone interested in making 2023-24 seasonal snowfall guesses for fun? (I don't have the time to compile and track everyone's guesses, but I'll provide mine for 4 terminals in our area):

IPT: 58"

MDT: 37"

LNS: 29"

THV: 33" 

IPT: 39

MDT: 28

LNS: 35

THV (Not sure they record precip): 33

HGR: 26

33 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Stupid lawyers. Once management realizes they don't need them thanks to AI, it's a Dios. 

Wall-E may not be too far around the corner.

Mow #17 in the books. 

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'll take this as a legit pattern change to Niño on the Euro 12z. Qpf total thru 216 hrs.

Much needed. 

For the LSV.....12Z Euro a week out....really close to normal most of the first 6-7 days outside this Thursday and Friday which are much above normal.   Then not so ideal for Thanksgiving white mischief. 

1 minute ago, canderson said:

Presented without commentary: AI is starting to outperform meteorologists 

https://www.engadget.com/ai-is-starting-to-outperform-meteorologists-173616631.html?src=rss&guccounter=1

How do we know you are not AI?  

3 minutes ago, paweather said:

Thanksgiving snow getting better 

12Z Op GFS has a system forming off the SE coast in the wake of the Wed Rain but the LW pattern gives it the scoot. 

Pleasant and 52 at noon.    Central LSV sites seem a good 3-6 degrees higher today at 55-58. 

50 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

My wife went to Pitt for grad school in 2011-2012. I went to see her in the Burgh every weekend. If it's one thing I've learned, it's that Steelers fans are never happy with their teams record. Even if they win the Super Bowl, it probably wasn't a "good win".

7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I think that's probably a true assessment about most diehard fan bases. Our oldest son is an Eagles fan and is constantly telling me how the fans are ripping the team on social media for not winning in an "acceptable" manner. As far as Pittsburgh specifically...In fairness...I think most football fans outside of Steelers Nation would say that this edition of the Steelers isn't very good. They've been out-gained in every single game this season. And yet, they're 6-3. 

As someone who spent a lot of time in Lanco in the past, what are your thoughts for our area this winter? 

I think a lot of it is the psychological beating people take if they think they are going to win and do not.... many people turtle up and say bad things so if it turns out bad, it is easier to swallow.  Not in your case though, you are more than fair on both sides of the pendulum. 

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Stillers are the worst 6-3 team in the history of professional sports. The Packers had 5 plays of 35+ yards on Sunday - 4 of them came on 3rd and long. The 5th was in the final minute with Jordan Love throwing essentially a hail mary to avoid a sack...except for the fact that the hail mary was to go a guy who had no one within the city limits covering him. 

How this team keeps winning is beyond me. Well, they don't turn the ball over. That's one thing. And they can run it some now. Other than that...yeesh. 

This past weekend was the best weather day that we've ever had. Low 50s and full sun in November. It was a glorious fall football Sunday in Pittsburgh. 

Two headed running attack! 

38 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

The stations around me all bottomed out around 3am and then the winds picked up and mixed-out the inversion.  My low was 35 but it was 41 when I left the house at 6:20am.  My high yesterday was 55.  MDT is now almost exactly spot-on for its average monthly temp.  Onward.

With the end of the week heater on tap we may be going into the last full week of Nov slightly AN...though not sure I trust MDT to have the same level of heat as the rest of us.