frd

For once this actually fits the potential of the overrunning pattern.

I was trying to estimate your location in relationship to the precipitation banding isn't your location close to the bands between .31 and . 41 on the 6z Euro ? If so you thinking 3 maybe for you ? up my way I am in the same banding but have little expectations.

Seems the entire PV shifts South putting us under battle zone with Frigid air to our North and waves moving along the boundary to our South.

We are due!

RGEM wayyyy NW

No, sorry.

Interesting data here that seems to support the Euro at handling 500 millibars for hours 72 and 96 slightly better ( reduced average error ) than other models.

Compare

Yes it is. EPS supports the OP with many strong members.

Hmm....

EPS members look better, many more are West, expect EPS snowfall to move West as well.

EPS looking to move West.

Delaware and Eastern Shore close up. Sweet !

Better for @CAPE

If correct about the RAOB data and the Euro doing better out West then maybe the GFS will be somewhat incorrect with its 12z run evolution. Heard it from a met.

Believe the Euro has been over amping all systems so far this winter. But yes, good points.

So bascially I am hearing the Euro has already caved to the handling of the feature out in the Four corners. I think I will only use the GFS Op from now on.

If the Euro caves fully to the GFS can you seriously even consider it useful any longer for East Coast Snowstorms? Four days before the event you had the EPS, Euro Op and Control with decent to very robust snowfall projections for our area. I know it has been pointed out that the GFS Op has had a significant upgrade, but for the GFS to match or possibly exceed in this case the forecast abilities of the Euro ensembles/OP. etc so relatively close to game time is to me stunning.

Well in hindsight, ( caveat..... so far ) HM's tweet might end up being correct, in stating that his expectations were zero for this area with this type of storm. Actually, he was referring to Philly so that makes the statement even more depressing for areas South and West. But maybe we can be saved by Jack Sillin.

Extensive area of snowfall along the East Coast at hour 72. Impressive !

Pretty crazy. Liking what I am seeing .

Looks better so far at hour 39.

Exactly, seasonal trends so far, combined with climo, Nina, etc., all seem to converge on a less impactful event away from the coast. Of course, there can still be positive changes, but those seem to be fading for areas to the West. But, even some snow combined with high winds and cold temps will make for a nice winter landscape. @CAPE seems to be in a good location and I have faith in @MillvilleWx latest thoughts that here in Delaware we can still get a decent event. Outside the models is the luck factor which is still in play for some. On to the NAM

Yes, in Middletown, DE, so hopefully I have better odds, we will see. Hopefully we all score across the board with an over running event in early February. Do you have a favored time frame for early Feb? Last I checked was near Feb 6 th or 7 th. But, that was days ago.