Models aren't exact, for all we know we have that? That's why I like to start looking at the radar. We could get screwed the other way as well? It's game time...
Paved surfaces are starting to cave. You can see it around the perimeter. Then it usually takes over especially with sunset, darkness and lowering temperatures.
Didn't 6ABC/accu weather put a radar out that way? I remember seeing a commercial with Adam Joseph explaining something of that nature. Maybe it was somewhere different.