nycsnow
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Posts posted by nycsnow
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Upton calling for 70mph now in my high wind warning
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5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:
Hopefully the worst comes overnight Tue into Wed which would be at low tide. By Wed AM high tide the winds might switch to offshore which would lessen the coastal flood impact quite a bit.
Upton thinks it won’t matter
* SHORELINE IMPACTS...Large breaking waves of 15 to 20 ft along
the oceanfront will result in widespread dune erosion and damage
to dune structures. Scattered overwashes are expected, resulting
in some flooding of roadways and vulnerable structures behind
protective dunes. Isolated breaches or inundation of the barrier
island is possible where dune structures have been severely
compromised by previous storms.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Peak surge of 4 to 5 ft will likely be
between times of high tide Tuesday evening and Wednesday
morning. Tidal piling will likely inhibit the recession of water
before the Wednesday AM high tide, which could cause locally
major flooding for area from Freeport eastward. Of particular
concern are areas along the eastern Great South Bay from
Lindenhurst to Mastic and along the bay side of Fire Island,
where west to southwest gale winds may pile waters Wednesday
morning into afternoon along with 2 to 3 ft of wave action.
Residents in vulnerable communities should prepare for the
potential of major coastal flooding (3ft of inundation above
ground).PRECAUTIONARY
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Upton
SE winds will increase through the day Tuesday with the strongest winds expected Tuesday night. The low level jet that is modeled is concerning with around 95-100 kt between about 4-5 kft. These winds are well above an inversion, but winds around 1-2ft are quite strong around 50-70kt when the jet peaks overhead. A model consensus has the peak of the low level jet and winds over the area between 03-09z from west to east. The highest winds are still expected near the coast with gusts around 60 mph (in the High Wind Warning). Gusts 45- 55 mph are expected in the wind advisory area away from the immediate coast. Sustained winds could reach 25-35 mph at times Tuesday night. The peak of the winds may occur in just a few hours coinciding with the passage of the low level jet, 10pm-1am north and west of the city, 11pm-2am in the NYC metro, 12am-4am Long Island and Southern CT. Once the front and winds shift more to the S and SW, winds should weaken, which is expected to occur before day break Wednesday. It will then remain breezy on Wednesday with gusts 25-35 mph possible.
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Gonna be a big costal flood event as well
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National Weather Service New York NY 318 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2024 CTZ005>007-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>073-091000- /O.NEW.KOKX.WI.Y.0001.240109T2300Z-240110T1100Z/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex- Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen- Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union- Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester- Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx- 318 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2024 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. * WHEN...From 6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Locally higher gusts up to 55 mph are possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. &&
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URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 318 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2024 NYZ074-075-078>081-176>179-091000- /O.UPG.KOKX.HW.A.0001.240109T2300Z-240110T1100Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.HW.W.0001.240109T2300Z-240110T1100Z/ Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk- Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk- Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 318 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2024 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Southeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected. * WHERE...Richmond (Staten Island), Kings (Brooklyn), Northwest Suffolk, Northeast Suffolk, Southwest Suffolk, Southeast Suffolk, Northern Queens, Northern Nassau, Southern Queens and Southern Nassau Counties. * WHEN...From 6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive.
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This wind event is probably going to be more widespread and possibly damaging compared to last one. Longer duration as well
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Next storm has potential to be a widespread long duration wind event
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Gfs showing 60++ wind gust for a lot of us Tuesday into Wednesday
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6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:
The GFS is even more amped up for the next system. That one will be the much bigger story than a few inches of snow.
Winds looking impressive again
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Gfs has 70mph winds Tuesday night
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Models showing a decent wind event with gust 50+ possible next week 9th and 10th
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400k without power in Maine wow
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Just now, jm1220 said:
Farmingdale gusted to 44 last hour. Branches were swaying in my backyard but not as bad as before. Cleared up fast however once rain ended.
Gusting into 30s now, Maine getting absolutely slammed
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Heavy rain and wind now again
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Power outages popping up again down south must be from that last round
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Just got real dark and breezy again
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Wonder if that slug of heavy rain down south makes it up here
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Radar filling in down off Jersey
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1 minute ago, psv88 said:
Wind starting to crank. Gusts 35 range consistently now. ASOS sites reflect this too. Buckle up
Robins reef gusting to 68 lol
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5 minutes ago, psv88 said:
ASOS sites all gusting 30-33
Do you have a link to view them I used to have a mesonet site but I can’t remember it
Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
in New York City Metro
Posted
The reasoning behind the high wind warning and wind advisory. The main key feature is a low level jet maximum of near 100 kt that develops this evening at a height of around 4-8 kft. Model sounding BUFKIT profiles do not depict a strong inversion, as the thermal profiles appear to be close to isothermal. Winds just 1-2kft above the surface are shown to reach 50-60 kt across the coastal areas and with the heavy rain and aforementioned thermal profiles, much of this should get mixed down to the surface through downward momentum transport. The timeframe for this generally after 02Z Wednesday and before 09Z Wednesday for Western Long Island and New Haven CT west. The timeframe for this to the east generally after 03Z Wednesday and before 10Z Wednesday. Also, coinciding with this timeframe will be tremendous increase vertically with omega and the total southerly flow extending throughout the troposphere will increase the PWATS to well above 90th percentile climatology values. Models still conveying PWAT values near 1.4 inches maximum overnight into the coastal parts of the region.