Jump to content

nycsnow

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    3,807

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by nycsnow

  1. nycsnow
    The reasoning behind the high wind warning and wind advisory. The main key feature is a low level jet maximum of near 100 kt that develops this evening at a height of around 4-8 kft. Model sounding BUFKIT profiles do not depict a strong inversion, as the thermal profiles appear to be close to isothermal. Winds just 1-2kft above the surface are shown to reach 50-60 kt across the coastal areas and with the heavy rain and aforementioned thermal profiles, much of this should get mixed down to the surface through downward momentum transport. The timeframe for this generally after 02Z Wednesday and before 09Z Wednesday for Western Long Island and New Haven CT west. The timeframe for this to the east generally after 03Z Wednesday and before 10Z Wednesday. Also, coinciding with this timeframe will be tremendous increase vertically with omega and the total southerly flow extending throughout the troposphere will increase the PWATS to well above 90th percentile climatology values. Models still conveying PWAT values near 1.4 inches maximum overnight into the coastal parts of the region.
  2. nycsnow
    Upton calling for 70mph now in my high wind warning
  3. nycsnow
    https://x.com/weatheroptics/status/1744478180210016499?s=46
  4. nycsnow
    Upton thinks it won’t matter * SHORELINE IMPACTS...Large breaking waves of 15 to 20 ft along the oceanfront will result in widespread dune erosion and damage to dune structures. Scattered overwashes are expected, resulting in some flooding of roadways and vulnerable structures behind protective dunes. Isolated breaches or inundation of the barrier island is possible where dune structures have been severely compromised by previous storms. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Peak surge of 4 to 5 ft will likely be between times of high tide Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning. Tidal piling will likely inhibit the recession of water before the Wednesday AM high tide, which could cause locally major flooding for area from Freeport eastward. Of particular concern are areas along the eastern Great South Bay from Lindenhurst to Mastic and along the bay side of Fire Island, where west to southwest gale winds may pile waters Wednesday morning into afternoon along with 2 to 3 ft of wave action. Residents in vulnerable communities should prepare for the potential of major coastal flooding (3ft of inundation above ground). PRECAUTIONARY
  5. nycsnow
    Upton SE winds will increase through the day Tuesday with the strongest winds expected Tuesday night. The low level jet that is modeled is concerning with around 95-100 kt between about 4-5 kft. These winds are well above an inversion, but winds around 1-2ft are quite strong around 50-70kt when the jet peaks overhead. A model consensus has the peak of the low level jet and winds over the area between 03-09z from west to east. The highest winds are still expected near the coast with gusts around 60 mph (in the High Wind Warning). Gusts 45- 55 mph are expected in the wind advisory area away from the immediate coast. Sustained winds could reach 25-35 mph at times Tuesday night. The peak of the winds may occur in just a few hours coinciding with the passage of the low level jet, 10pm-1am north and west of the city, 11pm-2am in the NYC metro, 12am-4am Long Island and Southern CT. Once the front and winds shift more to the S and SW, winds should weaken, which is expected to occur before day break Wednesday. It will then remain breezy on Wednesday with gusts 25-35 mph possible.
  6. nycsnow
    Gonna be a big costal flood event as well
  7. nycsnow
    National Weather Service New York NY 318 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2024 CTZ005>007-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>073-091000- /O.NEW.KOKX.WI.Y.0001.240109T2300Z-240110T1100Z/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex- Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen- Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union- Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester- Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx- 318 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2024 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. * WHEN...From 6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Locally higher gusts up to 55 mph are possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. &&
  8. nycsnow
    URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 318 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2024 NYZ074-075-078>081-176>179-091000- /O.UPG.KOKX.HW.A.0001.240109T2300Z-240110T1100Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.HW.W.0001.240109T2300Z-240110T1100Z/ Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk- Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk- Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 318 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2024 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Southeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected. * WHERE...Richmond (Staten Island), Kings (Brooklyn), Northwest Suffolk, Northeast Suffolk, Southwest Suffolk, Southeast Suffolk, Northern Queens, Northern Nassau, Southern Queens and Southern Nassau Counties. * WHEN...From 6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive.
  9. nycsnow
    https://x.com/weatheroptics/status/1744438809364767214?s=46
  10. nycsnow
    This wind event is probably going to be more widespread and possibly damaging compared to last one. Longer duration as well
  11. nycsnow
    Next storm has potential to be a widespread long duration wind event
  12. nycsnow
    Gfs showing 60++ wind gust for a lot of us Tuesday into Wednesday
  13. nycsnow
    Winds looking impressive again
  14. nycsnow
    Gfs has 70mph winds Tuesday night
  15. nycsnow
    Models showing a decent wind event with gust 50+ possible next week 9th and 10th
  16. nycsnow
    400k without power in Maine wow
  17. nycsnow
    Gusting into 30s now, Maine getting absolutely slammed
  18. nycsnow
    Heavy rain and wind now again
  19. nycsnow
    Power outages popping up again down south must be from that last round
  20. nycsnow
    Just got real dark and breezy again
  21. nycsnow
    Wonder if that slug of heavy rain down south makes it up here
  22. nycsnow
    Radar filling in down off Jersey
  23. nycsnow
    Winds calming down a bit
  24. nycsnow
    Robins reef gusting to 68 lol
  25. nycsnow
    Do you have a link to view them I used to have a mesonet site but I can’t remember it
×
×
  • Create New...