nycsnow

It is possible that there may be better agreement with tonight`s guidance as one of the many players is now over the CONUS upper air network and may be sampled better. This is a vigorous shortwave that is currently diving south along the west coast. This shortwave will have some influence on another shortwave/mid level close low farther north in Canada. This interaction could be important because the northern energy may end up being the main driver that digs down and helps spin up the surface low.

Upton knew it was coming Something else to note which has been consistent in the EPS Ensemble is that through the last 3 runs (18z 2/18 - 06z 2/19) there has been a pretty large cluster of member lows that are lying just northwest of the mean low location. This gives some confidence to an eventual continued northwest trend even though the ECMWF has consistently been one of the farther/drier solutions. The latest 12z run however has actually had a slight tick to the northwest. This is a trend worth monitoring.

We’re getting a lot more recon data in models to hopefully the trend keeps Going

Guess I’m going to work on 4 hours sleep tomorrow

Ukie eps

Sref came west

Some of those would be monster storms for most this forum

Euro AIFS eps

Model noise probably

ANd if not? Euro isn’t the euro it used to be. No models are good anymore can’t discount any of them. Euro has been all over the place

Euro ai change in one run @ 50@ is wild

Euro ai 500 already better @ 60

Yea it’s rolling on pivotal now early in the run

That twitter met mark margavage has been saying for days this is gonna come north he’s using the norm Macdonald rule… really interested to see how that works out for him lol

White rain unless majority of it falls at night like this past Sunday

can’t get one coastal storm to go our way lol… that’s about it ready for spring mode. Over this winter was nothing but wasted cold and fantasy storms

Ready for spring in some with tracking after this, feel like tracking has just been getting worse and worse this winter lol

Gefs supporting the op