nycsnow

Tremendous improvement

Icon way better

Icons about 300 miles n/w from 18z

Icon looks different at 500

Long range Nam with a positive trend can’t ask for more tbh

There wasn’t even a storm here at 18z

Huge improvement can’t expect things to show a hit right away but the improvements were there

Nam is so much better

Nam surface low is way west at 00z Monday

It’s going negative tilt I think

Wow

Big changes @ 500 on nam, such a better look so far

It’s getting there

And like Upton said we should have more data in these runs

Would love to see a big nam trend

It don’t run out past 84 so ya would prob be good

It is possible that there may be better agreement with tonight`s guidance as one of the many players is now over the CONUS upper air network and may be sampled better. This is a vigorous shortwave that is currently diving south along the west coast. This shortwave will have some influence on another shortwave/mid level close low farther north in Canada. This interaction could be important because the northern energy may end up being the main driver that digs down and helps spin up the surface low.

Upton knew it was coming Something else to note which has been consistent in the EPS Ensemble is that through the last 3 runs (18z 2/18 - 06z 2/19) there has been a pretty large cluster of member lows that are lying just northwest of the mean low location. This gives some confidence to an eventual continued northwest trend even though the ECMWF has consistently been one of the farther/drier solutions. The latest 12z run however has actually had a slight tick to the northwest. This is a trend worth monitoring.

We’re getting a lot more recon data in models to hopefully the trend keeps Going

Guess I’m going to work on 4 hours sleep tomorrow