WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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31/11
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@Bob Chill, totally agree on the soundings. Razor thin line between 2”/hr or sleet that can peel the paint off your car. Hopefully @high risk agrees with @psuhoffman that it can be a little aggressive with warm layers at times.
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Seems a bit drier vs the overnight runs (that’s been the trend all winter up to game time), but generally stronger with the initial snow thump. Less sleet. So far happy hour’s been pretty good for the cities and immediate suburbs. I’d say 3-6” plus some sleet is a pretty reasonable call for our yards. If we can hold off the warm layer just for another hour or two, it would make a big difference.
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Lol not sure what to make of the RGEM. Focuses the heaviest morning band through DC and southern half of 495. Then has a long second wave which most other guidance has dropped. But overall fits with the happy hour theme of good for the cities and drier for far N/W areas.
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34/11
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Time to switch to obs and now casting
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CWG updated forecast looks pretty decent to me although their "boom" range increased. I know they like to make their regions sort of "elegantly curved", but it always makes me a little twitchy that it doesn't align with the Fall Line.
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Euro still low 10s in the cities and single digits in the 'burbs Sunday morning. Euro's the coldest global on this point.
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Outside of the NAM and RGEM, seems like the sleet part has dried up a bit. That's fine with me. Maybe we get lucky with the banding tomorrow am and get a quick 5" thump with some sleet on top. That seems very possible given a blend of the guidance. Of course, if we get split like happened on Super Bowl Sunday, could be more like 2-3". I think saying 3-5" for us plus sleet/ice is a pretty solid forecast. Could say 3-6" to hedge.
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Pretty much every storm this winter has been 3-4" with mix for our areas. Feel pretty likely this one will fall in the same category. Maybe we get lucky and it ends up closer to 5" with mix? That's possible.
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I think apparently it did really well with the December event showing the Binghamton jack? But yeah, I'm not sure if I buy it.
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Ukie is really warm at 850mb. Blech.
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Para is a weenie run for the I-95 corridor. Thumped in the morning, just light sleet during the mix period, and then bullseye with snow on the 2nd wave/backend idea.
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It's about the same as 6z. Nice 6hr snow thump for cities before mixing drops 3-5". Then a little snow on the backend Friday. I'd take it. Far N/W folks probably won't like it because it's drier there as they're between bands.
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RGEM kinda sucks. Much drier for DC and points south. Slighty colder at 850 and 700, but not enough to make a huge difference.
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My wife and mother-in-law both got their first this morning!
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Hrrr and the Nam Boyz both have a better thump tomorrow morning than previously advertised at 6z. Hopefully the globals do the same.
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12z 3k is certainly better then 6z was for the metro areas. Better snow thump before sleet. 3k has been sleetier than the 12k since the get-go as it's usually better at seeing thin warm layers in the vertical column.
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Can you please post much less? Thanks!
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Interestingly (?) the NAM has dramatically reduced the 700mb warm layer that was showing up yesterday. Look at the difference between 12z yesterday and today for my area. Warm layer now is 800-850mb, which was also present yesterday. Eventually, the 700mb warm layer does punch in, but several hours slower than shown previously.
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Just keep in mind that the Super Bowl storm showed the I-95 corridor being the precip max right up until the start. Meso bands are not well predicted ahead of time.
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I hate that little blue blob right over my house surrounded by yellow. But can’t say it’s wrong. Every major storm this winter has basically been 3-4” of snow plus mixing. Don’t see a reason to change that for tomorrow.
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Post mortems before the storm is over are weird, but I’ll say this. The NAM held onto the OH valley primary idea way longer then other guidance. That’s a big part of that reason it was showing so much more mixing than the globals in the last 48hrs. That certainly looks like it’s going to be wrong. Now there seems to be decent agreement with the mesos and the globals on track and the slight differences are due to location and strength of the warm layer aloft.
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I can’t decide which is worse: 10:1 snow maps that include sleet or snow depth maps that must be based on measuring on top of your running car’s hood.
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Still seems aggressive at this point but whatevs. I’m fully expecting tomorrow to be Rug Pull: Episode V, Revenge of the NAM.
