WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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^That 987mb off Wallops Island would be acceptable I think.
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Looks disastrous. Better pack it up and maybe we get lucky in March before spring arrives for good.
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As I said earlier, the Op runs have been wanting to phase in the PV and make it dig deep in the Rockies over the last day or two. Not sure why, but the ensemble means want nothing to do with that. If that dichotomy continues through ~Sunday, then I'll start to get mildly concerned.
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Close the shades?? This is "close the shades"?? I mean, are we only hunting for HECS here? That ^^ is like a 9/10 look for snow chances for us. The VAST majority of our snow falls in a long wave pattern that is not a 10/10. If we can only deal with 10/10 or we only get snow in 10/10 patterns, then it's time to move north or quit this hobby.
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Nice post @brooklynwx99! Having the ridge along the west coast vs slightly inland would normally favor a coastal runner or inland track. But the Atlantic side, with the PV well west of the canonical 50-50 location will fight against that. Long way out still, but with a very good airmass in place, I’d favor at least SOME frozen for everyone. Best chance at a white Christmas since 2010 without a doubt.
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Yup. For whatever reason, the last 24-36 hours of Op runs have often wanted to phase in the PV to this event. Ensembles want nothing of the sort.
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When it comes to arctic PVs phasing into giant storms, the Canadians should obviously be better equipped to model that
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Dude's 87 years old, you can't just make him dance for nothing!
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I'm skeptical of that much sleet for areas south of @mappy/ @psuhoffman / @HighStakes, etc. But we'll see. If my kids can slant stick 0.1" of sleet accumulation I will take it! There's not going to be any snow for our subforum's region outside of maybe the northern part of the Blue Ridge area or eastern WV/Garrett County MD.
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3k is very sleety to start.
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You mean next Thursday’s massive cutter that will ruin Christmas and our great pattern?
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I know when I was a kid in Harford county there was chatter about splitting off North Harford HS like the Hereford zone. As a kid outside that zone, I was of course violently opposed . Hasn’t happened still.
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In a "normal" winter (if we ever have such a thing), there's probably 1-3 days where an east/west split would make sense for a HoCo school delay or closing. And I think that's just not worth the fight and logistical headache to make that work out.
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Given the redistricting experiences I've watched, I'd imagine some very angry people with strange alliances of convenience. "Easiest" way would be to have the Glenelg HS and its feeder schools separated for these sort of events, but I've seen no major effort to try and do something like the Hereford zone for HoCo.
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Nope, we're uniters not dividers in HoCo!
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There will be a little ice out by Mt. Airy and Sykesville and my kids will get a "rain day" Thursday. Book it.
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For perspective, the last -20F or greater wintertime (DJFM) departure at BWI was Jan 31, 2019. We've had MANY +20F days in DJFM since then.
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Normal high/low the last week of December is like 45/28? Gives a mean daily temp of 36ish. So 25F off that is mean daily temp of 11F. I’ll take the over.
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lol this is funny
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Precise timing and orientation varies, but this s/w could produce some flurries or snow showers Saturday I’d think.
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This is the standard “it’s looking good but still 7+ days away and I want my snow now” angst
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Hard to say. As I’ve said, I think we need to clear this week’s storm before getting good clarity on next week. But even if a storm cuts, I think we have a solid chance of front end frozen with a good airmass in place. I get that, but I think we clearly have a window here starting next Sunday/Monday. Whether we score at the beginning, middle, end, or all points during that window I don’t know. But we’ll have chances I think.
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All sorts of action today and end of euro run is like a “Buy milk and TP!” warning sign, but we’re at a low point If this is a low point, than I’m more excited for next week.
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We miss our snow map pr0n, but I’m perfectly fine just seeing storm potential when it’s D12+.
