strongwxnc

1 hour ago, lilj4425 said:

Uppped totals. Good to see as I get up I thought a decrese. 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
116 AM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Snow amounts have been bumped up slightly across the region, mainly
over the NC Foothills, but most places very similar to the previous
fcst.

LETS GO. Flakes. 

I just woke up!

They’ve got me in the 3 to 7 range Saturday day. Possibility of an inch before sunrise.


.

Solid. Solid!

Its quite interesting noticing the same precip maximums as the meso low snow that forms in 2003. Obviously that was more of a strong clipper but this could have the same footprint but with more widespread totals. I could see someone getting 12-15" out of this in a small area. 

Our little guy coming down out of the Dakota's .

Just now, wncsnow said:

It's a bit concerning they give the NAM that much weight

My brain is mush after the last two weeks. Ready for go time.

6 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

GSP lowered totals a bit, I do think they are playing catch up a little with the lower overnight trends vs the higher trends today. I expect them to bump it back up later. 

Quote

The 06Z ECMWF and GFS depict a mesolow developing over northeast
Georgia and tracking southeastward across the South Carolina Upstate
on Saturday, but the 06z NAM shows the mesolow developing farther
north and east, just on the edge the GSP forecast area. Depending on
where exactly this mesolow develops and tracks on Saturday is one of
the main forecast challenges.

From the updated AFD at 1:53. Working off the 06 runs as stated. 

9 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

lovely Euro run. Someone near @strongwxncis getting 10+ out of this 

Got that strip through the SSE side of my county. Im like 5 miles to the N of it. 

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Another short range gets juicier! 

 

RAP has a later start time also for MBY. 4am

3 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I know it’s the Graf but in my past observations it’s pretty good with picking up unique meso features and banding. I’m glad every run seems to be looking better on it.

Got a link?

UNCA will be sending Balloons  up starting at 6 Pm today

4 minutes ago, Maggie Valley Steve said:

Haywood County schools will let out at noon.

Thats a good call for them. I hope others do. 

I work in Rutherford County school (AP at East Middle) and over buses. We had a 1 hr delay today (for some reason). Lots of issues even this morning. I hit lots of ICE still around on many roads. 

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Pretty solid NAM runs. Upstate gets hammered. We need just a little push north. 

I think this will be the battle zone (at least until a new zone is created LOL). 

Current WV LOOP

Watching this today among many others. 

Ugh. Those short range models have me nervous. The 6Z Euro still looks good, though.

Feeling good under a warning this morning. I hate the word lock in winter weather but the 9 in 10 chance is 2-3" . Of course the high end 1 in 10 is 9-11".

Getting close to nowcast time

“Hey siri… add baby oil to my shopping list.”


.

Myself and I assume others also have been dug into models runs since the sunday before last. This has been an epic time frame for tracking. 

Quote

ARea Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
153 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The winter storm watch has been upgraded to a winter storm warning 
across the North Carolina mountains. The remainder of the watch will 
likely be upgraded to a warning tonight.

Snowfall totals have increased with the highest totals still 
expected along and east of I-77, but confidence in heavy snow is 
increasing for portions of the Upstate and mountains.

Quote

Key message 2: A significant winter weather event will impact the 
region from Friday night through Saturday night, with snow expected 
to be the primary precipitation type. Due to cold temperatures 
leading up to the event, impacts to travel will be significant.

While some variations in model guidance persist, the overall 
forecast trend is coming into better agreement with high confidence 
in a significant winter storm for the western Carolinas and 
northeast Georgia. A potent Tropospheric Polar Vortex (TPV) is 
currently analyzed just north of the Great Lakes within a broader 
gyre over southeast Canada. Farther south, a subtropical jet extends 
from the eastern Pacific to the Gulf Coast with a lead shortwave 
trough diving through the Southern Plains. And to the west, a tall 
western ridge resides from the Great Basin through the Cascades and 
into the Canadian Rockies. Heading through tonight and into 
tomorrow, the TPV will drop across the Midwest and dig into the 
Mississippi Valley. The trough will initially have a very positive 
tilt to it, but will quickly take on a neutral tilt over middle 
Tennessee before becoming negatively tilted as it swings across the 
Southern Appalachians through the day on Saturday. The latest trend 
in guidance has been for a slower evolution of the TPV, which would 
allow for the lead southern stream wave to get out ahead of the 
bowling ball upper low and initiate surface cyclogenesis along a 
coastal baroclinic zone along the Carolina coast. 

Furthermore, guidance has latched onto the development of a mesolow 
in the lee of the Southern Appalachians with the mesolow moving 
southeast through the Savannah River Valley and into the South 
Carolina coastal plain. This would place much of the forecast area 
in a very favorable location north of the mesolow and north of the 
bowling ball closed upper low. Here, strong forcing for ascent will 
be present in conjunction with convergent low-level flow, some 
component of which will have a moisture connection to the Atlantic. 
This will also foster the development of a notable band of 850mb 
frontogenesis across the Upstate and into the North Carolina 
Piedmont and portions of the foothills. The result of which has been 
a notable southwest trend in QPF with an uptick along the I-85 
corridor. Snow will start as early as tomorrow afternoon across the 
mountains as upper divergence increases as the TPV encroaches on the 
Tennessee Valley. A strong upslope component of the flow will also 
help force precipitation across the mountains. Snow will then 
overspread areas east of the mountains late Friday night into early 
Saturday morning. The event will peak through Saturday morning into 
the early afternoon before gradually tapering off from west to east 
late afternoon through the overnight hours with all snow coming to 
an end by daybreak Sunday morning.

This will be a very unusual and highly anomalous event in many ways 
with near record low 500mb heights, very cold temperatures and rare 
Snow-to-Liquid Ratios (SLRs) of 15:1 - 20:1. The dendritic growth 
zone will be very deep with plentiful forcing for efficient snow 
growth. Thus, it won't take much QPF to reach warning criteria snow 
across practically the entire forecast area. The winter storm watch 
across the mountains has been upgraded to a winter storm warning 
owing to earlier onset time tomorrow afternoon and evening. Snow 
will take longer to break out east of the mountains and the winter 
storm watch here will likely be upgraded to a winter storm warning 
with the overnight forecast package. Forecast confidence in where 
the highest snowfall totals occur is moderate and some variability 
still exists. Right now, the highest totals are still generally 
along and east of I-77, but this is subject to change pending the 
evolution of the mesolow. A band of heavy snow could setup along a 
corridor extending from Greenville/Spartanburg to Charlotte. 
Snowfall totals along and north of I-40 are a little more uncertain 
now with the heaviest snow potentially shifting south towards I-85. 
Nevertheless, warning criteria snow of at least 3" is still highly 
likely. There has also been a signal for a "dry slot" between snow 
bands in the general vicinity of northeast Georgia, although where 
this occurs is still uncertain - but even there warning criteria 
snow should still be realized. The ceiling is high with this event 
and a swath of 8-12"+ totals cannot be ruled out where the greatest 
banding is able to set up shop. 

https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/latest-snow-events/

Cool map about snow history in NC based og amount since last. 

2 minutes ago, scottk said:

As someone who is not a regular on the forum, I have a question.

Where are the majority of you all located?  
 

I’ve gathered that it is somewhere in NC. But when I see posts saying things like “this model run was really bad” or “this one looks like a great trend for us!”, I don’t immediately know what/where/who you’re referring to. 

Most have locations logged under the user name. 

NWS GSP chat says they will upgraded to a warning this afternoon.

7 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

We’re looking good. Only critique would be that I’d like to see the digging calm down a bit. You want to be just northwest of the ULL, not way northwest.

Hopefully we will have a good agreement on this today into tonight.