Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
650 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2026
Key message 4: Small possibility of snow next weekend with development
of coastal low pressure to our east or southeast. If snow were to
fall, it could easily reintroduce or worsen travel impacts due to
the cold temperatures prior to onset.
The latest models are coming into a little better agreement on
a sharp vort lobe carving a deep trough over the Southeast late
Friday into Saturday. This wave may provide energy to induce
cyclogenesis somewhere near the South Atlantic Coast. The low
looks to likely form offshore the Carolina Coast, resulting in
largely dry conditions for our area. There still could be some
brief NW flow snow shower activity with the passing upper trough,
but confidence of any precip east of the mountains remains low. A
handful of ensemble members from each of the GEFS/EC/GEPS and the
AI ensembles all have some QPF over our Piedmont with a possible
precip shield extending NW of the coastal low. The air mass in place
would be so cold, that the most likely precip type would be all
snow for our area. The latest NBM PoPs are still only in the 10-20%
range Friday night thru Saturday. But this situation bears watching,
as such cold temps ahead of this system would make even light snow
stick to roads more than usual, and lead to slippery conditions