EastCoast NPZ

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

We can't? Let me re-introduce you to last winter! Now THAT would be difficult to top.

It's a 7" of mostly slop difference for me.  I'll live.  

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Annual family vacation to guaranteed snowy destinations. That's gonna be the way...

Especially next year's Super Nina, +QBO, +AO, descending solar off a maximum, with continued marine heat waves off Japan and the West Pac warm pool. Did you see the CFS sst forecast in the NCEP ENSO update? Winter 2024-25 is going to be historic... and not in the way we want it.

Look at this. Horrifying.

Honestly, we can't do a whole lot worse than this winter.   It'll be warm/wet cold/dry, but maybe the cold will actually be cold.

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

That is unbelievable. I am like 10 miles NW of you have double that amount so far this winter. You shouldnt have moved back

I lived here for 10 years previously,  so I knew what to expect.  The differences from N to S in this county are stark.

Just now, T. August said:

8.3”

Wow, I've beaten someone.  Lol.

1 minute ago, Wxtrix said:

i’m at about the same. 

Yeah, just too warm.

I never measured, and half of it was probably gone by the time I could've measured.  Based on a 6AM look out the window, I'll go with 1".  Just slush on hard surfaces.  Pretty crappy event here.  No surprise.

8.5" for the year.  Lowest in the region I'm certain. 

Early AM, may have approached an inch on grass and elevated surfaces.  By the time I got out of bed there was less and continues to steadily melt.  Drip, drip, drip.  About what I expected here in the heat island of Stephens City.  Places out in the north and west part of the counties look to have 2 - 3 inches.

4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Where is the cold air coming from?

Top of the troposphere.

Didn't you see the Day after Tomorrow?

9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

My bad. Winchester city is closed. No the county yet. Just saw the alert and assumed. 

Thanks..that's weird they closed the city prior to the county.

16 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Frederick County, VA schools already closed. Ridiculous.

I've not been notified 

3 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Honestly, any winter that starts slow (like this one) is an immediate flag to me. I’m not surprised at all by this outcome so far and was one of the reasons I went low on snowfall.

Now watch us get a March hecs.

For us, delayed is denied.

1 hour ago, wxdude64 said:

So for second day in a row set a new 'warm minimum', old mark was 40.5 from 2018, new is 44.7 degrees. Currently 45.6/44.6 and fog/drizzle here at 8 am. 

Deep winter is an overnight low below freezing.

It's the NAM

53 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

LR GFS has a signal for temps in the 60's for our epic pattern period. Hell.. sounds like good news. Anything but the 40's and low 50's with 2-3 inches of rain every few days. 

Upper 40s was always going to be the best case for temps by that time of year.  But we still need the rain.

Just now, wasnow215 said:

Then why is it still called the “panic thread”? Shouldn’t it just be called the “Run of the mill-pessimism thread”?

It should be called the Long Range Thread.  And the long range thread called the Hope and Pattern Change Thread.

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That wasn’t his best moment but I’ve seen way worse.  

Yes.  There is a lot of overreaction about this.  Sideline stuff like this is not rare.

9 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

No idea, and have no confidence in the LR models either. They missed the wintry week in Jan, and underestimated the “relax” period afterward. They were honking the great pattern, and then it fell apart so quickly. Doesn’t mean they’re more correct now, and ironically the GEPS is now the warmest of the three when it’s usually biased coldest. 

modeling has been a crapshoot this winter is all I can say

Of course they're more correct now, they're closer in time.

30 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said:

Unfortunate. So what’s next? 

Summer

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS, congrats New England, epic period for them...

Is this a nino or nina?

10 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

If winter ends now it's an F- in my book.

About 40% for my average seasonal snow fall. And worse than that in an nino.

basically 1 week of winter lol.

I have 25% normal.

But, in all honesty, that probably is above our new normal.  Considering that is about what this place received the past 3 winters combined.

And this is the best month of our "winter".  Literally 1 week. 11 weeks in, 10 weeks of warmth.

A bit of an overperformer today, .20" so far.

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

+20 high temp and +12 low temp at BWI in early February. . .

Pretty typical these days.  Not even noteworthy anymore.

Winter here now simply consists of sub 50s highs.  And we can't even achieve that with any consistency.

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Been a pretty wet winter brother. Just turned over my garden beds today. Soil was soaked pretty damn deep.

I've got .02" for the month.  It was 4.5" for Jan.  Good, but that hardly put a dent in the -12" for 2023.