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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    Still hasn't managed to rain here. I'm not sure what it is about the pattern that East Tennessee/SW Va can't get rain, while it rains in basically every direction around us. Incredibly, still no big fires here. That's the most surprising aspect of this particular dry stretch.
  2. John1122
    Western areas getting slammed with heavy snow always equals warmth for here. Hopefully that flips.
  3. John1122
    Rain fell apart before it got here. The tropical system is looking west of my area. Crossing my fingers and toes a brush fire doesn't start near by.
  4. John1122
    GFS and others bringing heavy rains to the area with the tropical system. The GFS bringing some flakes to the Eastern Mountains and Plateau near mid-month. Highs in the 30s/40s on the 15th on that run.
  5. John1122
    We've still not entered La Nina, been holding neutral since August. It's running later than expected and the chance of it happening has fallen from earlier in the year. Still a 60 percent chance. The strength of the Nina, like Nino, usually greatly impacts what actually happens weather wise.
  6. John1122
    If, always a big if, the GFS is correct, the dry issues will take a blow next weekend as a tropical system influences weather again for the area.
  7. John1122
    The leaves were fantastic here this year but short lived. They are mostly gone now with today's wind. If it rains much tonight, that'll finish the majority.
  8. John1122
    Really needed some sun this evening for photos I'm doing. Instead I get ultra thick clouds and a rain shower has popped up in the area. This was no where in any forecast.
  9. John1122
    Actually getting more rain that I thought we would after it went around overnight. Steady shower going that hopefully lasts 30 minutes. Crazy that we just go from drought to downpours and record rains the last few years to drought with no in-betweens.
  10. John1122
    The 00z GFS was pretty wet late run, the 06 was bone dry. We are probably going to set an October record for driest month after many September records for wettest.
  11. John1122
    I'm hoping to squeeze out a tenth Friday night. Fortunately, the pre event and Helene dumped so much rain that the deeper soil is very moist still. In 2016 the deeper soil went dry. Root systems were burning here, well underground.
  12. John1122
    See the NOAA winter forecast is a copy/paste La Nina map.
  13. John1122
    Made it to 31 this morning. First freeze of the season.
  14. John1122
    Notice we are ringed by freeze/frost products but MRX said that those products were no longer going to be issued here between October 1st and May 1st. I assumed it was a large scale policy but apparently it's only for Tennessee by looking at the map.
  15. John1122
    Had a dusting here overnight from the 13th into the 14th in 1977, and another dusting on the 16th. Lots of low 20s for lows in that stretch. I've seen several similar weather events to 1995 this year and that year had October snow flakes flying too.
  16. John1122
    Slipped into the 30s. Looks like a few more spokes of precip upstream.
  17. John1122
    When this went past.
  18. John1122
    I wonder if that means over an inch. According to the GSMNP website Le Conte averages a trace of snow in September. I know temperatures in the teens have been recorded in September there.
  19. John1122
    This one was pretty heavy here and it sounded like sleet on my metal roof at first. Went out and it was some half melted/half frozen flakes.
  20. John1122
    Just had my first frozen precip of the season. Graupel mixed in with the rain passing over currently. It's 41 degrees.
  21. John1122
    Truly a raw day today. Currently moderate rain and 49 degrees.
  22. John1122
    Looks like it may not get out of the 40s here on Wednesday.
  23. John1122
  24. John1122
    They are going great guns here too. Seems most of the area is getting a show.
  25. John1122
    Got .38 inches of rain today from an absolute soaker of a shower that rolled over.
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