John1122

The long range isn't exactly inspiring for winter lovers either, the GFSAI is a torch, the EuroAI has a few cold frontal passages but quickly rebounds to AN after each. At this point, I'm going to hope we get a February event, as January (unless the gfs pulls off a miracle coup with the nw trend) is looking lost. The odds of getting a truly wintery pattern with snow on the ground for a while like we've managed the last few years, seem to be fleeting.

The UKIE, which has been the furthest east, was probably 150-200 miles west vs 12z.

Canadian, while nothing for us, went from off the coast to precip well west into NC from 12z to 0z.

I don't actually believe the GFS here because it's the GFS. It digs the S/W further south and west and pumps the ridge a bit off the east coast, thus the more NW track.

The Rufus now has the Sunday system hitting East Tennessee.

0z RGem is a rainer under probably 1800/2000ft.

The 0z NAMs are similar to 18z with precip, but they were also warmer. Rain across our area but snow on the Gulf coast would be the ultimate weather slap in the face.

It would be wild to be significantly trailing the Florida/Alabama Gulf Coast in snowfall two winters in a row.

ICON is also a mostly rain event. Frustrating to say the least.

18z is really warm as well, at this point, it wouldn't shock me if it warmed up and rained.

It's the model that is supposed to eventually replace the HRRR and NAM.

The RUFUS has the same moisture feed as the NAM but is very warm, and it rains over the entire area.

The warm nose on the 3k runs up along the mountains all the way towards NE Tn on that run. Hopefully that doesn't happen but it seems to have been a thorn for several years now.

3k NAM is less patchy than the 12k and is a major event for many of us. Unfortunately misses the far west but nails the midstate. Heavy snow falling still on it at hr 60 when it ends.