John1122

That clipper on the euro is almost what the gfs showed the other day. It thumps northern middle Tn and southern middle Kentucky where those convective looking snow showers are.

Second wave is a clipper on the euro with connective snow showers. If you get caught under one you'll get dumped on.

Definitely improved from 12z and as Tellico noted, it actually stepped towards the GFS.

Pops too late for most of us on the Euro. Eastern mountains and SW Va make out though.

The Euro is maybe a little better with the first wave than 12z so far. Nothing like the GFS with that Lee side low it pops and bombs us, at least not yet. Still rolling.

Euro AI has lost it as well on today's runs, including 0z here. I hope it's wrong but with only the GFS and ICON on board, this is very unlikely to be a big event. Every other model is just some N stream snow showers. I'll be surprised if the Euro Op isn't the same.

The AI GFS has wave one and two. Cooperative 540s. BN 850s. But temps in the mid to upper 30s even with precip falling and crashing 850s.

The UKIE is in the Canadian camp. Not much cooking there except some NW flow snow showers and cold. It's not the best place to be on team ICON/GFS vs the other models.

The GFS would be just about perfect for most of us if it came to pass. First wave buries the east side, the second is nice 3-5 inches for the west and still added 1-2 inches over the rest of the state.

The second wave is also big on the GFS. The Canadian sees none of the first wave.

@tnweathernut nailed it. Huge hitter on the first wave there from the gfs.

Then it sends a clipper through at the end of the run and ends up here.

ICON lost the second wave, like the Euro.

ICON hits from Eastern Rim and points east, especially north of 40, on the 15th. Another round headed for Western areas by the 16th or so, with snow breaking out in Arkansas.

If I recall correctly the AIEuro was better than just about every other model regarding snow last winter. The GEM was usually too extreme.