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About John1122
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Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
KCSV
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Location:
Campbell Co, Tennessee 1750'
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It's possible, there's a mountain to my SE that rises about 900 feet above me.
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That looks like an AI version of the GFS ensemble.
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Now WVLT says my area will get a dusting. So I take back everything positive I said about him.
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The AI GFS has more precip futher west than the Op GFS, but less precip along the mountain counties than the Op GFS.
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I believe the HRRR and RAP do, possibly the Rufus and FV3 too.
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They were made available to emergency management offices.
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The GFS is slightly down with totals. Basically today the low end models have went up, the high end have came down, and they are meeting in the middle.
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I will also credit the WVLT met, as he said expect snow showers in the extreme cold that isn't showing up on models. This will be one of those situations where the dgz is probably around 2500 feet and up so snow will fall and it will seem to come from nothing on radar.
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Whatever model wvlt used showed 4 inches for my area, 5 for Knoxville, and 6-8 east of there.
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Yes.
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It's just getting more into a better range for it. Also, keep in mind, most models tend to actually underestimate QPF.
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Johnson City is 93 percent for over 4 and about 80 percent for oved 6.
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Newest NWS graphics dramatically increased snow accumulation percentages for my area. I was 22 percent for more than 2 inches last package. I'm now near 70 percent. I had a 10 percent chance of 4 inches or more, now that's 50 percent.
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The RGEM backed down by about .2 on snowfall across the area. 4.4 in Knox at 12z was 4.2 at 18z.
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The ICON was a tick better. 2.8 inches at 12z is 3 inches at 18z in Knoxville for instance.
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