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cny rider

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Everything posted by cny rider

  1. We best enjoy whatever we get in the next 7 days because it looks like the January thaw comes with a vengeance later next week. And if the ensembles are to be believed it's not going to leave any time soon after.
  2. That damn SE ridge needs a stake through the heart. You think it's dead, and then it comes right back to life and it's 45 and raining out again.
  3. You're right, I need to keep the faith. It's just that for the last 2 years, everything that could go wrong for us in winter, has gone wrong. Let's hope that's changing.
  4. The next 4 days look like a lot of fun but next week the storm track turns ugly.
  5. I usually look at the NAM, HRRR and RGEM. Then pick the one that seems to most closely resemble actual conditions. If I had to pick one: RGEM. Buffalo WRF also useful.
  6. Things did seem to break our way. We escaped the last storm with about 4 inches of thick crusty snowpack here, and now what looked like a really ugly SE ridge and prolonged torch with a cutter is more like a couple of warm-ish days with a mild frontal passage.
  7. I hate to admit it but that is a very impressive Bermuda high that builds in after Christmas. There's no fighting that thing. Just going to have to wait for it to relax.
  8. Yeah I underestimated the power of the 47F and raining, magic snow eraser. We still have 95% of the ground covered but as far as skiing on it, fuhgettaboutit. It's a tragedy. The nordic skiing was wonderful yesterday.
  9. 4 inches here.....and we have a pretty good snowpack. I'd say this is an outperformer on cold.....still 31F here. I expected to have gone above freezing about 6 hours ago. Since we should be back below freezing around noon tomorrow I think our pack will survive, albeit taking a modest hit.
  10. I have the same sentiment about these systems in general. It's only the extreme cold of this antecedent air mass that gives me any hope that this time will be different. But if I had to bet I would say a mushy 3 inches in my area and raining by noon Saturday, with temps well into the 40's by Sunday morning.
  11. I looked at the ensembles this morning and I agree, I think this weekend is the last hurrah for a while.
  12. I also enjoyed that. I hope we can look back in a week, using this post, to understand how and why it ultimately plays out.
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