GrandmasterB

I believe that was going to be fun to look at had it gone past 84 hours!

Are we taking the 981 closest to the bay or the 957 nuke a little further east?

18Z EPS ensembles. Big move northwest

Ripped from MA but I think this is spot on messaging. It’s an extremely delicate set-up where a 100 mile shift will make a significant sensible weather difference: KEY MESSAGE 3...Monitoring the potential for a coastal system this weekend. Very favorable storm patten in terms of analogs for big snows in the Mid-Atlantic this weekend. A 50/50 low & -NAO, Idaho Ridge, blocking over the Hudson Bay, and trough moving into the east Pac. Couldn`t ask for a better synoptic setup, but the formation of a storm remains in the details of this highly sensitive pattern. Guidance continues to show a Miller A type Nor`easter (it has been a while for one to form, let alone show up in model guidance). While the ceiling is certainly high for this storm, there is equally if not higher odds it just skirts out to see as indicated by the latest 00Z guidance and ensembles. Future runs will have to be seen if this is a trend or noise. How the TPV evolves will be one of the biggest factors on if this storm comes to fruition or not and impacts land. Regardless, expect fluctuations over the next day or two until the pattern is better sampled as associated energy is onshore across the western US.

Read more and post less for now. There are dozens of model runs throughout the day and locking in any one model solution 72+ hours out is foolish. I suggest reading the NWS discussions each day and learning from the seasoned folks on this board. Saying “congrats X location” or “way east” after each run will get a lot of buns thrown your way.

12.5 makes Blizz a razor’s edge winner over canderson. Nice work Blizz! I will DM you in a bit.

I’d love to track another one this week. This is how to run a winter!

If 14” is official that would make @pasnownutthe winner with an entry of 13.9”, just edging out @Itstrainingtime(14.2) who wasn’t even in the state.

Is this the official number then?

“Pretty darn close to the snow/sleet line”. I was speaking for our area.

Going back to happy hour NAM from Friday. Pretty darn close on the snow/sleet line.

50/50 snow sleet. Crazy. I’m not sure how many times I’ve ever seen it go back to snow after warming to sleet. Zero maybe?

The contest will likely come down to me vs. Blizz. I have 8.2 and Blizz you took 12.3 putting the number at 10.25. I agree that we have a ways to go yet with accumulating sleet and a changeover back to snow at the end very much in play.

My prediction was 8.2 but the next highest guess is pretty far above that.

Absolute nukeage. Man, if we can hold onto this for just 2 more hours.

Looks like very heavy returns just to our southwest and inbound. If that is all snow, I think we’ll make a run to double digits even in the southern tier.

Trace was one of the predictions of all time.

Best rates of the morning so far and it’s really starting to pile up. Radar looks great too. All systems go!

You’re in a great spot. I don’t think you end up mixing at all.

Blizz, don’t you think that has to be over done for MDT and points south and east? I mean I’m praying and all but the mesos aren’t in the 12-16 range!

Good morning all! Does anyone have a good radar for mobile that they like and want to share?

Stolen from MA and the LWX office. Interesting: If anything, perhaps some guidance leans slightly slower in terms of a transitioning to sleet Sunday morning. However, not buying into that just yet, and would like to see the 00z guidance roll in with the latest upper air data around the country. Could be something to watch though, as a slower onset of sleet in any one given location could make a significant difference in snow amounts. Will be something to watch this evening into tonight."

This is amazing

Absolutely razor thin margins down here. Nowcasting will be important.

Thanks everyone for all of the commentary on the 18Z runs. Great last minute trends! It’s been fun tracking with you fellas! I hope everyone enjoys the storm. Going out to get wood set-up then pouring a drink!