GrandmasterB

Submission denied

@Festus @Jns2183 one of you needs to pick either 16.5 or 17.5. I’ll accept the first response.

You guys do know where Middletown is, right?

I’m going 8.2 and you are going to hate it.

God you guys are weenies

Who’s in for a contest? Total storm accum for KMDT. Closest wins. None of that without going over bull****. I’ll keep track. You win pride and maybe a small prize. I’ll close it at 11pm tonight.

I love seeing the GFS hold, but it’s still on its own. Really need some other guidance to buy in…hopefully starting with the Euro.

Bit of a discrepancy between these two models.

Even with 60 hours to go…just based on the factors we have going in, I think it’s safe to lock in at least 8”+ for the both of us. I’m looking for trends to see if we can cash in on the high end amounts.

Great outcome for us, but it’s in the Euro/CMC/NAM camp with the primary running pretty far north and not as much coastal action. GFS still alone on that evolution I’m afraid.

Took this from the MA thread and I 100% agree: ”Seems like a theme of 12z so far has been flattening the flow over the central CONUS. Nice because it should help with keeping the primary from rushing north so much. Hopefully it is a trend.”

Canadian weakens the primary faster and colder up top vs. its 0Z run. Pretty much all I care about from that model.

GFS is super long duration due to the coastal influence. It’s a little bit alone in that aspect, but let’s hope it’s onto something!

This is going to sound incredibly weenie, but that snow map is probably under done if that’s the way this thing goes down. I could see 20+ if that GFS depiction is accurate.

I let the whole GFS run play out before I formed an opinion, but gawd damn. I need a cold shower! That’s pretty much the perfect evolution for the southern crew. (True central is getting smacked regardless). This run is a hair flatter and primary never gets north of West VA. I don’t need to see the snow maps to know we just got buried.

So far using the NAM and ICON, I liked the small trends at 12Z on both models. Slightly later phasing and a little flatter heights to our east. Now onto the big boys!

Always a good idea to keep an eye on what it’s showing and put it in a camp. In this case it’s much closer to the Canadian solution than the GFS. I wouldn’t weight it as much as an operational out past 48 hours. When it shows this type of mid level warming though it’s unfortunately been right quite a few times.

Hard to know since the run ends at 84. My takeaway is that it was colder overall vs. its 6Z run and our area is properly mauled before we lose the 850’s. It also tried with the coastal this run, but the primary made it just a bit too far north.

Ha! Have you met people?

With some new folks finding this forum you should put a 288 hour disclaimer somewhere.

Sorta like seeing the GFS less aggressive with the phase. Hopefully that leads to more of a compromise instead of continuing trends of amplification.

Dang, that is SUPER aggressive from Horst! Love to see it.

This won’t be a popular opinion, but I prefer yesterday’s modeling that had mostly over-running from the less phased solutions. On the northern edge of those solutions we didn’t have the max QPF but excellent ratios where .7 QPF is 10” of powder. Plus, we could afford some north trends. Now we are playing with literal fire from these amped solutions taking the primary into Pitt. All of the Miller B downsides now apply…WAA can surge well ahead of the precip, a transfer directly over us can rob moisture, the dreaded dry slot, all of the Miller B failure routes. AND we’re still 72+ hours out! Ok, that’s my only Deb post for today! Let’s get a Hatteras transfer on the Euro!

Appears the trend has been to amp the storm earlier, now we need to root for a GFS like transfer south of our latitude. Primary into Pittsburgh is guaranteed sleet for us southern folks.

Going off of that GFS progression I would expect snow amounts to be higher, honestly. Just lock that solution please and thank you.