Jns2183

I feel like I got hit by a 2x4 tonight. How is your COVID progressing? Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Wtf. I haven't felt a guest of wind yet. Someone needs to figure out the physics of this crap so actually flows can be predicted Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Eventually we are going to cash in on one of these storms. The important part right now is they keep coming. I already had an amazing surprise in the January storm. Forecasted to get 4" I ended up almost to 9". So I can't complain Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

I mean sometimes it's 7. I think it depends on the pattern and ultimately upon the paucity of data upstream. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

I would say 4 days, sometimes 3 Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Just liked they looked for South of DC last week for this week Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

We may have to sacrifice some weenies to achieve this Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Is next Thursday rain now? Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Moderate snow in camp Hill. Beautiful snow globe day Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

When are we getting 50mph winds? Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Where are they now? Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

I think if someone calculated a statistic of posts per person (total population covered by our sub forum) we probably come in first by a mile. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

700mb. Do not under estimate it Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

I'll take my chances with this radar Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Haha there is a boxed weather special statement for heavy snow up north Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

How are you 38? I'm in front of capital reading 33 Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

We have a shot here. Especially when looking at radar Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Can someone pull all the 700mb 850mb-700mb frontegesis maps off the mesoanaylais Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

I maybe totally wrong but I started looking at the 700mb low after what it did in the January storm after @AllWeather post. There really wasn't a single model anywhere that showed what actually occurred back in January. I would hold off of announcing failures until we get a good beat on the 700mb. @ruin you won't be happy unless you move to mamouth mountain or Phoenix. For you it's always going to be all or nothing for anyone. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

The last few days have taught the observer in Schrödinger's cat is very analogous to the NAM. Being able to see so many model runs that go outside the NAM range is like being able to look into the box and see cat both alive and dead for all possible future conditions Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Haha, then decides to pull a 2010 next Sunday on hour 216 then late two Thursday nights from now at hour 333. Both storms 12-18" Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

This storm looked like a nothing burger for days. It was this past Thursday's storm only drier. We have had so many short term models fall on their face in the spring and summer this year we would refuse to believe any rain would occur when we had 70% plus chances. The other side of that I discovered were these areas with a 10% ending up with deluges from the blue. Let's cheer for nature giving us many changes for randomness to occur Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Honestly on the pure potential available in this pattern, with no post hoc rationalizing lucky scores I will take this February setup probably more than any other one since 2010, maybe before. 3.5" of qpf from 5 storm systems in 16 days with 80% of the time below freezing and highest temp basically 45-50 in Harrisburg for a few hours overnight before crashing hard due to a low bombing out by buffalo before realizing he went wrong way somehow appears off cape code 3 hours later. There is just so much opportunity with the quantity of systems, moisture, boundary position and oscillating, temperature profiles. With so many moving parts coming so often I'll take my chances at being lucky since a small scale chance e in some overlooked region can drastically alter our events without warning Let us remember back to our ultimate lucky moon shot in 2016 that although we we stocked at the crazy high numbers the models kept putting out, the whole weather community basically automatically cut everything in half if and called it a 1% Highend possibly. It had seemed to happen to other locals that whole winter and apartment row before that. So much so that the Ctp discussion 5 days before mentioned medium confidence in a 8-12" forcast. Here is horst probabilities 4 days before: January 19, 2006 Here's my "probabilistic forecast" for LanCo--accounts for various uncertainties: 20% chc of I believe 12-16" was forecast as snow began that evening. Pittsburgh people came over saying the waa hit like freight train. @Bubbler86 told everyone in a remark that he probably was laughing at for typing such absurdities that in 2 hours from 12-1 the HRRR was pasting the southern counties and lsv in something like 4-6" of snow in an hour due to waa. In the grisp of all our weenie fever we thought it was absurd. An inch maybe two an hour is damn near the limit for waa we figured, then 4"+ verified all over. I think I got up at 6am with 14" on the ground ecstatic because I figured we get hit 20" maybe 24". A couple hours later that route 81 deathband gave me 16" more in 4 hours with a few hours of moderate snow giving me a few more. I had thought nothing could top overshooting the high end snowfall forecast for all 3 storms in winter of 2010, but that did it. They all had last second changes that gave us winning lottery tickets. Each and every storm we have a chance at is another chance at one of those tickets hitting again Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

I remember seeing a retired nws employee who had spent his whole career in the guts of their model explain the 1993 model coup in these terms: On small scales in closed systems watching them hit some kind tipping point where the end result Is certain is just how we've done science experiments forever. A point is reached where are you 100% know happen in a week unless some force outside the closed system acts upon it even though it will continue looking calm till almost the very end. We could hit a 50% verification wait for many things and I'll models even hours into the future. So what occurred to me was what kind of ungodly force is this thing going to be that it seemed more akin to end result of a city when Godzilla shows up in a movie than to any weather phenomenon I saw in my whole career before or after. Except he said it in a much more funny and illuminating manner Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

What I would give to find access to the text output of the 15 daily snow totals of each ensemble for each run for last 7 days. Can you post the qbf totals for each ensemble at runs end? For us at least I think 35%, maybe more of those totals come Wednesday storm on there. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk