Jns2183

Advisory up forum wide URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service State College PA215 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025PAZ006-011-012-018-019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-261700-/O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0012.251226T1200Z-251227T1200Z//O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0027.251226T1700Z-251227T1200Z/Potter-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-Including the cities of Lebanon, Coudersport, Danville, Berwick,Williamsport, Lewistown, Sunbury, Chambersburg, Huntingdon,Altoona, Renovo, State College, Lewisburg, Newport, Mifflintown,Lock Haven, Mount Union, Mansfield, Pottsville, Selinsgrove,Gettysburg, Shamokin, Wellsboro, Laporte, Carlisle, Lancaster,York, Philipsburg, Hershey, Bloomsburg, Bedford, Harrisburg,Emporium, McConnellsburg, and Trout Run215 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 AM ESTSATURDAY...* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations up to two tenths of an inch.* WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania.* WHEN...From noon Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday.* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest roadconditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained bycalling 5 1 1.&&$$For more information from the National Weather Service visitweather.gov/StateCollegeMartin/Lambert/Tyburski Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Also @WmsptWx I hope you didn't take any of that as negativity directed towards you. I thought you were talking about an on air meteorologist in one part and I was utterly confused by it. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

One thing I'm very interested in is the perceived utter failure of mid range models by a cadre of professional forecasters. I know mag mentioned known struggles in winter when switching to -NAO, but it appears this ongoing failure is way on top of normal struggles. I have not checked verification scores. The other hersay is that the AI models have done a significantly better job in mid range the past couple months. If anyone knows a site for verification scores of those it would be awesome! From my basic understanding the AI models run on basically a similar algorithm to guessing the next pixel in a image vs the normal models extreme physics modeling. Finding out when and we're each one excels seems like the obvious move. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I only ever saw forecast with highs 30-35 for Tuesday/Wednesday. Where forecast highs lower than that before? One of the reasons I found Friday storm intriguing was NWS having cut there forecast high Friday by 25 or so degrees. A forecast high that did have basically full model support for days before having the rug pulled out and one they were parroting a bit on social media the end of last week and last weekend. I saw some models lower for this upcoming Tuesday, I don't think it was full consus. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

After our areas first chance at snow this year I observed just how far the areas winter weather driving skills have plummeted after a few meager winters. They weren't great before, but they are bordering on Atlanta drivers during a snowstorm bad now. Throw in Friday being a big holiday driving day and I fear any downplaying of this is going to lead to bad bad outcomes especially with the uncertainty of sleet or freezing rain. Sleet is relatively easy to deal with road wise, but the minute it goes to freezing rain with temperatures in the 20s it's going to be real bad. The pavement is not going to hold the warmth of this afternoon. The low tonight is 25. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Where is this all coming from? The temperature forecast hasn't budged. Friday night in Harrisburg it gets down to 26-28. The storm was always a clipper and always a 6 hour affair. When did people get the idea that this was some big behemoth of a system? Is it just because we have a winter storm watch so people have preconceived notions of what that means? The one thing is clear is that people need to be off the roads totally Friday evening. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I'm seeing some wind guests 25-30 Friday night Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

That's great to know!! Thank you for that insight. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

The Poconos might be decent Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

A week ago we were looking at 50's for tomorrow. Now it maybe a mess, but it's our mess, and we will get some amazing landscape images come Saturday morning Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

We seem to be trending towards a more traditional FRZ event. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

The preceiptitation won't be particularly heavy so it might be prime accretion weather especially Friday night with temperatures in mid to upper 20's. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Ice ice baby Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

You do realize every other model is 4x-5x that? Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Merry Christmas to all Apparently the nuclear tests in the 60s had a significant impact on weather. We all know what that impact was in this area. https://purehost.bath.ac.uk/ws/portalfiles/portal/205424677/PrecipMod_Paper_preprint.pdf Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Gfs says get ready for true ice storm Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

My brother got my daughter and I , a nephew of his dog. Pure Husky. I had to put my dog down a year ago. He was alive before my daughter was born. He knew I was looking for one because I thought it was the right time with her almost 11. Yeah I definitely shed some tears with this one. My daughter is on cloud 9. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Here she is Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Not the CTP update but This is kinda funny Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

They are late.... Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

For the kids who do play it might be a memorable fun game on the tail end of a snowstorm. It's all one can wish for in a game like this Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Next briefing from NWS is in 30 minutes at 6pm. Another interesting aspect is the Pinstripe bowl Saturday at noon. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Remember the rule with CAD. It's almost always under modeled. If anything where you are I'd worry about more serious icing than they are portraying. Would not worry about temperature going above freezing overnight Friday. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Frozen is frozen. I just want it to look like a winter wonderland Saturday morning. Give your family a big hug. Found out today that my daughters good friend mom passed away today from sepsis all from a cut on her knee. It all happened with such shocking speed it's almost unbelievable. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

What's freezing rain graphics look like? I hope we have a balloon launch close to kmdt Friday at 12z to get a good hold on the layers Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk