Jns2183

Just got home. Sidewalks and walkway are sheet of ice. Yard is halfway there. Roads finally started caving last mile home. Happy to be home. Far far too many people are out and about at shopping areas currently. Just heard 283 has a major multi vehicle accident Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I have nothing but freezing rain. Car is encased in ice now Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Wherever you are, it seems more in line with weather in DC than Harrisburg. I would follow forecasts for them instead of Harrisburg Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Why dry slot? It's freezing drizzle here I saw one car spin out already? This was never supposed to be a single blob. Did you even look at simulated radar the past few days? Dry slots also usually only happen in miller b or miller A with a defined ccb. This is a clipper Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

You just gave the perfect description of what I was saying regarding dryer being more ice and heavier being more sleet. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

What are you talking about? The forecast has been steady as a rock temperature wise for days. It's 29 Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Freezing rain to start in midtown Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I also think it's hard for people to grasp that a low preceiptitation rate and this lower preceiptitation can turn out worse for ice accretion than a steady rain. Ice accretion has a band for maximum effect that depends upon temperature, basically the lower a temperature at the surface the bigger a band. A multi hour light preceiptitation event that's freezing rain in the upper 20's is prime trouble. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

If you want a storm that is a blizzard cradle to death you had one in 1993. It happens once ever 50-100 years. Everything else is going to be hard around here. If you move to mt. Shasta it's a bit easier Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Dry is what gives you a worse ice storm around here. Wet we would have a raging sleet bomb which is fun in its own right, but much easier to handle road wise. 0.02" to 0.05" per hour is the ideal rate for ice accretion at the temperatures this evening. I don't know what you want from this storm besides. It seems like you would be happiest if we got nothing. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I mean it is 1030am and I see the halo sun. Did we not expect temperature to rise at all today? Don't most winter storms have a component of dynamic cooling? If anything today I would pay attention to mid level dry air intrusion. That's why I'm bullish on more freezing rain/drizzle than most. I think we see an extended period of freezing drizzle at the end. That's outcome of less preceiptitation in total. Much more ice Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Skew-t diagrams are going to earn their keep today Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I'm surprised he's sticking with that forecast. Normal WAA usually always has last second big north tick in snow, the mid layer warmth is usually under modeled, the surface level cold is also usually under modeled. I'm guessing he sees something with this. I know there wasn't many analogs showing up so he might be right. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Maybe the good forcasters were just on extended Christmas vacation and the a-team is all back in the office today. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

At this point I'd be afraid to go over 5" for NYC Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

If anything I would bet the over on freezing rain, ice Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

They went on a rant for the ages when they came to gribs their torch was not going to happen Friday. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I wish the storm was delayed 12 hours so the Pinstripe bowl would become legendary Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I'm going into work 2 hours early just so I can be done before 3 and get home. I have no doubt tomorrow night the roads will be full of the exact people that you don't want to meet. The ones that thing because they have an SUV that ice doesn't effect them, as they try to text and change Spotify while driving making them into lethal weapons in their tanks. They then will post to social media how it's the weather mans fault they wrecked. Last year I saw a lady complaining that they need to shut down all the roads so that there is no social pressure to go out, and in the comments it came out she was playing a game while driving as well as attempting to do makeup and that was the reason for the wreck moreso than the 2" of snow. Her response: "blocked!" Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

The one thing is with a sleet base it's much easier to freeze on contact Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

4 to 10pm is mostly after sun set Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Which models? The NAM has been the only one with funky high run to run variability. The Euro, GFS, HRRR have been steady as a rock with 0.30-0.50". Further a drier solution causes even more issues more likely due to a higher probability of it falling as freezing rain, at a rate that has maximum accretion unfortunately enough people are going to convince themselves it's not a big deal and end up with a totaled car, injuries, and putting unexcusable strain and risk on first responders. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

If we get above .10 it's going to be a major issue Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Latest prediction is for about 0.3-0.5" of sleet and 0.15 of freezing rain for Harrisburg Cold front has past, skies have cleared and a breezy north wind is pushing cold air in Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Oh boy oh boy. Look.at that jet coming down from deep artic. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk