Jackstraw

I'm one of those weirdos that tends to over anthropomorphize stuff all the time and when I saw that slide from that model run yeah, that looks just like a big 'ol Inuit mitten scooping out warm air over the continent leaving a trail for some good wet cold lol. I'm also a believer in storm track trends and when they set in it can be hard for them to break. I forget which one of the few insanely cold winters we had last decade but I remember it started with a huge super typhoon in mid Nov that translated via the N jet across the continent and left and insanely strong like 1060mb polar ridge in its wake that basically stayed for most of the winter. I remember it sucked because we froze while the storm track was suppressed way south with southern snows across MS/AL/GA into the Carolinas. Until that point we were being forecasted to have a snowy even odds cold/mild winter and had been having a decent SW/NE oriented storm track. Anyway, lol, my point before my ADD rambling set in was the storm track through most of the summer has been oriented in such a manner that one would think cutter time is at hand. We've got a Super Nino to juice things up yet we've had some pretty stout cold shots re-enforced by some deep digging lows, lots of cutoffs, right through our neck-o-the woods. As warm as this summer was (mostly in high overnight lows) we had some strong cold shots too. I seem to remember a dip into the 40's once or twice in July. Regardless I don't think we'll be lacking moisture this winter and Nino's don't necessarily mean no snow. If the storm track pattern stays put in it's current general orientation could be fun. Of course it'll be nail biters as usual IBY lol. Snow 5 miles N, rain 5 miles S and pingers on top. Enough rambling lol

Late to the game been bust outside. The Canuk's won the smack down fairly substantially for QPF the last week of Sept. IBY. They have been by far the most accurate QPF models for MBY all the way back into Aug so I'm gonna ride them through this winter lmao.

Models have been all over the place with the southern portion of the incoming rain (to be expected when a cutoff L is involved) but for MBY as of 12Z its the Canuk's vs everyone else. I will say over the last 30 days the Canuk's have won. Canuk's have me at less than .25 while most other's are around .75 to 1.5 through Sat. Early October smackdown begins tomorrow lmao.

43 last night. Woke up with a shiver lol.

East/Central Pacific has been a Tropical nerds dream this season. Mostly harmless but absolutely beautiful blow torch storms. Polo is another gorgeous Major. I hope we're getting as much research data as possible.

I've had some Fall work to start getting ready for Winter to do outside, shoring up the roof over the little barn, some fence repair to keep Goat and Donkey from raiding the neighbors (and they would lol) etc. Having to cram it in before another trip to Florida next month. I can attest it feels like fall out. I don't think I've ever mowed with a coat, gloves and winter hat on before. Maybe its just because it went from 87 to 50 in a day lol. Its a bit windy, that's not helping. And now we have cold "wet air" this morning. Its not really foggy or drizzle per se. Its just wet. Like a cold body shower lol. It's phreakin cold with the breeze I know that. Looks to stick around for another week, albeit a little warmer (70 maybe) and maybe some sun. I'll take every minute of that stuff. Top tier climo for the next week.

Yes it is. It really shows up in winter where the snow/rain cutoff can be brutal, especially for me lol. I've seen in just kitchen sink and could literally drive 2 or 3 miles N and there's 4 or 5 inches. I have my own theory as to my the main E/W trail through history basically follows the I70/US40 corridor through the Great Lakes/OH Valley from the NE and East Atlantic. It being due to roughly that line being the average storm track line making more winter treks (although muddy) possible out of some of the larger Eastern cities. My own stupid theory but it kind of makes sense to me lol. Of course its also the southern end of the last glacial extension so theres that. I ramble, it's early lol .

Tag y'all are it lol. Been super dry locally. I mean the rain around here has been 10 miles north or south. Which is fine, we received nearly a summers worth during the flooding rains a month ago. Grounds back to dry lake bed cracking around here lol. Just got back from Fl in time for our first Fall like week it looks like. Thats fine with me. I'm ready for some sub 60/50 dews for awhile. Even up here, Aug and most of Sept was just humid as hell. El Nino Humidifier been running full tilt this summer. One of the muggiest in recent memory here. I expect it down there. But I'm 1/2 mile from the ocean down there so usually a nice breeze. I'm in the ocean when I'm not helping my mother anyway so it really doesn't bother me. Pretty cool this trip with a lot of low to mid 80's. But also a lot of Florida Woosh Bangs. Nothing louder than Florida Hammer lightning lol. Munched down a 35lb Cobia I caught surf fishing, my favorite ocean fish to eat!

Lets see how the models do over the next 10 days precip wise. The mean average for MBY last Sunday was .5 inches, I received over 2in within 72 hours. To be honest, the Canuk and Baby Canuk did the best with last week and this week in the medium to long range. It has me around 1.5in thru 10 days while the others just a spittle. If it keeps up I'm riding it into March in mby lol

It's been raining for 6 hours straight again. This is getting stupid.

So we broke all time river crests through North Central IN down to Northern Indy last week. Now a rain train is setting up to dump again. I'm already pushing 13 inches for the last week, 90% came on Thurs thru Fri night. Insane.

Yeah. I'm more concerned with home growns this year . Not necessarily hurricanes either. Tropical systems that can form in the GOM, even weak ones, this year are going to be loaded water guns moving inland. While El Nino's usually cut down on overall numbers, they usually load up weaker storms. And we certainly don't want a GOM system riding up the MS river this year after what just happened. We're going to be flood prone for the next month with no rain. Rivers and creeks are still in Moderate to Major flood stages. If you stop and walk up to a corn or soybean field theres a lake under most of them.

Yeah, been watching it from my back porch. It just started moving right. Wind here abruptly changed direction about 15 min ago like 180 degrees heading into that thing. Got my eyes on the one behind it. Its freaking juicy as hell out.

I'll try and get some pics tomorrow. That is if this if we dont get the supposed amounts being forecasted right now overnight. Another 1in+ and its gonna be Schitts creek territory. Cant believe I forgot my phone lol. Sux getting old.

Yep. We have November which I kind of think as our second tornado season compared to Spring early Summer.