moneypitmike

Looping the WV images, it looks to be moving right toward RI.  I guess it'll begin kicking to the NE soon

Euro is def a bit east of the 18z nam. I think the nam is probably too far west. It is quite a bit further west than even the rap only 12 hours out.

It doesn't make a huge difference for most of us in here but the western fringes it might.

Some of us really care a lot about the western fringes. 

According to mesoanalysis the storm center has dropped from 1004 mb to 996 mb in the last 4 hours.  Bombing out has commenced.

Has any model caught this right time/location?  Trying to read the tealeaves.

It sure does.  And it spits on GC.  lol

Oops--my bad.  I didn't see it past 18z.  2' for the Berks sounds great.

I hope so too, but I was focusing more on the western part of SNE in my post. Good luck up there. 

 

FWIW, 18z NAM still gives most of the Berkshires 24"+.

Even though you're further west, I think you're locale being further south is better situated than up here.

The NAM is the ultimate savior for NYC but boy does it clobber SNE.

It sure does.  And it spits on GC.  lol

LOL, live and die by the Euro out here. it doubles up every other model for snow in W MA.

Well, I called it quits and am now back home.  I'm going 18" for GC if the EC plays out, 10-12 if it doesn't.

Duxbury to Marblehead FTW

Yeah, Mike. Out here is a huge question mark. I honestly think that we get more than 10". How much more obviously depends on that band and where it rots. I'd love to believe that most models are wrong and we get into the goods, but it's anybody's guess. Personally, if you can get on a plane, do it. ... it's not like we're on the south shore here witnessing a twice in a lifetime event.

God, I hope I'm wrong.

I'm about to call it quits an dhead home.  I'd rather be home instead of learning later on that either the flight was cancelled or I don't come off standby.

Also, they garage only had parking on the roof when I got here.  Anyone there tonight/tomorrow ftl.

anywhere between the berks and kevin will get in the good band euro tics east other models come west a bit 

I think you'll be good in the lower valley.  It's really the arc west and to your north that are going to get screwed.  I hope Pete has his snow magnet going full blast.

Thanks Chris and Scott on the airport update.  Doubt number 1 is the flight even leaves, doubt number 2 is I'm standby.  I may just call it a day and head home.

Worse than being stuck here at the airport while the model consensus is rapidly shifting this to being a mundane experience for GC.  Unless the EC remains steadfast, I'm going to go with <10" for the Pit with a huge and rapid  escalation as you head 50 miles toward HubbDave.

I guess this will be test of the new GFS' cajones.  It hasn't shown much yet, but we'll see.

I'm pulling for the EC for obvious reasons (I hate that RGEM map), but it will be fun for all.  Historic for all?  Perhaps not, but enjoy.

If it goes east and GC winds up with 10", it'll still be a good storm.

16/7 here high clouds starting to obscure the stars. Nice to finally have a system this year that has close to zero chance of tainting out here.

Radar and water vapor images look like precip moves into New England a little ahead of schedule?

It's going to be a cold system for sure.  Forecast temps for GC:

Tonight:  4

Monday:  19

M-nite:     13

Tues:       17

T-night     9

As far as timing---I think it's going to be a virga city for a bit to moisten the atmosphere.

for my time in the springfield mass area, flurries this morning have me daydreaming again...........

 

def the winter of 10-11 that thirty or so day span with over 50 inches of snow...really every bit as good as 95-96 and with better retention

 

had everything:

 

consecutive snowfalls with just enough sleet and refreezing to slow down sublimation/compaction and consistent cold weather

at least one snowfall of 18 inches or better

a couple inches of snow with arctic overriding and temps in the single digits

15 inches or greater depth for nearly thirty days

greatest depth I have ever witnessed 30 inches morning of feb 2nd

 

snowtober...the death band around or just after midnight with rates that had to be at least briefly 3 inches/hr and a peak depth of at least a foot!  the tree loss and no power for over a week does tend to cast a shadow over it however

 

feb13............it took FOREVER since the first flakes started flying just after 9am but the period of 9pm to 2am with nearly 18 inches falling and at times near zero in mostly falling snow, rates probably at times approaching or exceeding at least briefly 4 inches/hr...total storm accumulation just under or at two feet, 21 inch avg depth...epic for this area anyways...and truth be told that big amount in the five hrs was as the death band was starting to decay...

I had that in the October storm for about 4-5 hours straight or so.  Not quite as long as Mitch, but long anough to pile up 28", IIRC.  A beautiful powder storm up this way.  No leaves on the trees up here to cause issues even if it hadn't been powdery.

Oct 11 was one of my favorites of all time.  The combination of a block buster storm, the first storm of the season, and actually not being  in season mark it as memorable.