jbcmh81

Just now, buckeye said:

12z euro is still giv'n CMH love.

It kind of matches the timing of the HRRR I described above.   Pretty much 7-8" across all of Franklin County in the overnight.

Now it’s just time to watch the upper level freezing lines creep south.   I suspect they won’t move much until the low moves south and then there will be a rapid switchover.  All depends on timing.  The earlier the better, obviously. 

Still think later today into the overnight is going to be good.  Maybe no 12” totals, but 6-8” is still plenty reasonable if the deformation sets up where it’s supposed to.  The first push was always the most questionable.

I think it’s time to stop looking at models.  I think 70 is going to be ok in the end even with some mix today.  It was always going to be on the line and likely see at least some precip other than snow, so no one should be panicking just yet.  Seems to at least be starting as snow around Columbus.  Let’s see how long that lasts.

Just now, JayPSU said:

The RGEM just refuses to get on board.

You're all screwed, that's the superior model. 

I think a lot of the public watched the local news say 3" and that's all they're expecting. 

Just now, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Where are you getting the 6-10" ? I typed in Columbus and under the Winter Storm Warning headline it says 5-8.

It's in the zones. 

Just now, pondo1000 said:

They going to up totals on WSW then?

Those are all the new totals for the 3:30 update. 

ILN has 6-10" for Columbus.  Curiously, they also have 8-12" for Madison County.  Not sure how that works. 

1 hour ago, buckeye said:

It looked good.  I think the problem was it was flying along, looked like it was about to go neg tilt just as it hit WV but didn't quite get there.   That would have the boom we wanted.

I don't want to sound like Angry and be negative, because storms heading up from the south moving east of Ohio can make for some excellent storms.  I am more just commenting on that track.  Apps runners are the unicorns of the Ohio storm compendium.  When you see one, make a wish, because it's unlikely you see one again.

3 minutes ago, buckeye said:

basically classic app runner from n. AL thru WV to n. Central PA sub 980.   Haven't seen the precip yet.

Well that'll be wrong.  True Apps runners are extremely rare, which is why March 2008 situations only happen like once a century.

19 minutes ago, NTXYankee said:

ILN added preliminary amounts to my Saturday forecast on the point and click map for northeast section of CMH.  They must be feeling more confidence.  Up to .3 inches of ice and up to 8 inches of snow during day Saturday.

They seem to be trying to cover all the bases, throwing in basically every conceivable precipitation type, including rain.  The new point has only 3-5" for Columbus down from 3-7" earlier.  A little weird considering the trends today, but it's not like it's all set in stone. 

6 minutes ago, vespasian70 said:

So we have the Ukie and Deep thunder heading south.

Yeah... I think I-70's in Deep Sh**.

1 minute ago, buckeye said:

looks better for sw OH but worse for se OH.   cmh is about the same.   There's that sw to ne trajectory showing up again.....hmmm

Riding the 71 line, who would've thought?

Track from east-central Arkansas to north-central WV, 992.  Stronger low, maybe a hair further east?

Just now, dilly84 said:

Euro looking like it may be a monster.

Last night's run was ridiculous with 2'-3' across the I-70 corridor north from Illinois east through Ohio.  It rivaled 1950. 

Just now, buckeye said:

oh god, that's right....you guys were in the pure rain part of that.    That was crazy....  Dilly must have been 

2004 sucked.  I was just south of Columbus at that time and it was a major ice storm.  Knocked out power for like 4 or 5 days, including on Christmas.

Just now, buckeye said:

good to see you posting again

The ukie looks awesome, 1103 low in n. GA getting ready to head north

 

Thanks, can’t say I’ll be here a lot, but the pattern is interesting to say the least...finally.  Tons of storminess and potential record cold... I’ll at least be around until it gets boring again.   

So that would be 3 good runs.

2 models were better, one worse so far for 12z.  The good news I guess is that the GFS has been crap and all over the place so far. On to the Euro.  

I'd be concerned about the north/west trends, especially for areas along I-70, which are now literally on the line.  Another 50-100 miles north and that zone misses out almost completely.  Same story as always, really.  It's still early, so time to watch it, but it already seems like a classic screw job taking shape. 

1 hour ago, JayPSU said:

18Z GFS with a move north.  I’ve seen this movie before, I know how it ends.

Looks like it attempts some kind of transfer... one low into Kentucky while another reforms further southeast. 

It also has the extreme cold look next week with -20 and below numbers showing up. 

2 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

It bias. I would ignore that completely. It did the same thing with a shittier pattern in December consistently in its cold bias. Part of NCEP's problem is the need to ridge in the pacific. The GGEM can have it at times while the ECMWF is the opposite with a bias to trough in the pacific.

Oh I definitely don't buy it, but it's just something I've never seen on a model before.  I do think many parts of the state go below zero perhaps as early as Sunday night, though. 

21 minutes ago, buckeye said:

we all know that it's nothing more than a snapshot in time....but as of todays 12z runs, they were awesome.    Euro bumped back south to put i70 back as the axis of heaviest snow, widespread 10-15" amounts from Dayton to Pittsburgh.     Icon looks similar with 15" amounts.   Gfs not as sexy but still very nice.  Uk came in line with gfs.  GGEM so far out on it's own it either scores the coupe of the century or get's the dunce cap, (but even it gives us 4-6" as bad as it looks).    Then they all bring the arctic hammer right behind it, close -10 degrees.

No celebration yet....still everything that can go wrong is on the table.   I still think suppression is the biggest potential party-spoiler.   

The FV3 brought back the monster arctic outbreak, but even greater this time.  It shows most of Ohio falling below zero on the 26th and has it stay well below zero through the end of the end of the run on the 31st, with another significant push of arctic air poised to drop south into February.  That's the wildest run I've ever seen for cold in the Great Lakes by any model ever.  For the record, the longest period of below 0 temperatures in Columbus is 56 hours during the 1994 outbreak.  This would blow that away by a good week.

3 minutes ago, vespasian70 said:

GEFS giving some love to OH.

Love?  It would be a huge blizzard.  Almost 1" of precip, all snow, with temps gradually falling from the mid-upper 20s to low teens and strong winds.

You know it's a bad, boring winter when people start reminiscing about winters, forums and posters from 20 years ago. 

3 hours ago, buckeye said:

For the Columbus area weenies, sad news, WBNS announced Chris Bradley has entered into hospice.   Prayers for him and his family.  He was a great on -air met..  A true snow weenies at heart and way too young

I read that yesterday on his facebook feed. The news about his leukemia has been bad for some time, but I was hoping he would somehow beat it.  One of my favorite meteorologists over the years.  His enthusiasm was always palpable, and I don't think there's anyone in the Columbus market who isn't just there for the paycheck now.  Not that I pay much attention to it these days, but definitely a loss.  Here's hoping for one good storm to send him out.