jbcmh81

31 minutes ago, Gino27 said:

That's pretty remarkable. Given that this snowpack will likely survive for most of us, it could certainly get very very cold.

For the record, here are the 1985 and 1994 time periods in reference for Columbus. 

1985 High/Low/Mean/Departure/Precipitation/Snowfall/Snow Depth

1994

10 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

Frickin stopped here. Dry air?

Just in a moat.  

8 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

lol

Could you elaborate?  National Weather Service Text Product Display  See for yourself.  

Cincinnati is back to snow after some rain.  So that's some good news for everyone north of there.

Models seem to be coming in a touch colder today? See the NAM has a foot for Columbus.  That seems doubtful, but NAM is usually pretty warm.

Definitely overperformed further west with places in Madison County getting 2-3" when few models had more than an inch at best.  Looks like 3-5" across Columbus. 

Will probably go down as the snowiest Christmas Eve in Columbus ever, which is kind of sad if you think about it.  

The biggest December 24th snowfall ever before today was 2.7" in 1980.  An inch or more has fallen on the date only 4 times since 1884, not including today, and not once in the 40 years since 1980.  Before that, there was a 19-year drought.  So yeah, it'll probably be a long time before it happens again.  

ILN has moved the 4-6" line into far eastern Franklin, Delaware and Pickaway counties.

While everyone is throwing in the towel, ILN just expanded the WWA a few counties in Central Ohio. Most short term models have clearly moved the heavier stuff west, albeit the gradient remains very tight. Snow moving up along Rt 23 into the eastern half of Columbus now.

Live view - AXIS Q6044-E Network Camera (osu.edu)

Nice little event for most of Columbus it seems.  

31 minutes ago, vpbob21 said:

Yeah I think Bellefontaine would be a  great place to be in this setup.  I think that area was the jackpot zone when Sandy came through here a few years ago.

 

I lived in Bellefontaine for several years back in the '90s. Not my fondest place I've lived, but one bright side was the winters tended to be awesome.  The elevation always seems to allow for a lot more snow and cold than surrounding areas and rarely deals with the rain-snow line that plagues the I-70/I-71 corridors.

On 2/20/2020 at 4:03 PM, buckeye said:

I know you've experienced less snow....I believe the year that CMH only got 9" was like '15-'16, (I think).   Also lest we forget 11-12.   But I do agree that this is by far the most boring winter, weatherwise that I can recall...possibly even back in the early to mid 70's living outside Philly.   At least in 11-12 we had the Morch, plus I was in Hawaii most of January that winter so I didn't really care what was happening here.

But this winter, with it's endless stretches of upper 30's to lower 50's by day, very little sun, virtually nothing to track, (not even fantasy storms),  has been the perfect backdrop for the profoundly depressed.    

If there's such thing as karma in the weather world.... Jan/Feb 1978 redux should be in the cards very soon.  A weenie can dream.

Through yesterday, 2019-20 has the 24th lowest total snowfall for Columbus.  There are 2 years in the past 20 that beat that- 2016-17 and 2001-2002.  2019-20 has been warmer than 16-17, but slightly colder than 01-02, so 01-02 is definitely the worst winter of the past 20 years, but we're talking minor differences between the 3.  19-20 is, so far, the 9th warmest winter on record.

10 minutes ago, geddyweather said:

Quite a lot of sleet on the ground here. Kinda depressing tbh. Main snow bands missed to the north by 20 miles or so, best FZRA is to my south. Got the cursed end of warm tongue. 

There hasn't been any winter weather at all along and south of I-70 since December 17th.  Consider yourself lucky to be getting sleet.

5 hours ago, osubrett2 said:

Welp, yeah sorry fellas. Looked decent for a split second, but a stronger system on Wednesday ruins any chance for the OV on Thursday/Friday.

This could be the first time in history Columbus goes through January and February with less than 1" of snow combined.  It's really looking like the exact same pattern for February as January.  Warm, rain, some flurries, repeat.  It's one of the worst winter patterns I've ever seen.  If there is no accumulation over the next week, it enters the top 10 least snowfall to date.  Most of the rest of the state isn't doing much better.

Futility looks to continue into February.  If it's going to be this bad, might as well root for a top 5 most sh**tastic winter of all time. I can easily see February being warm and snowless too.  Ohio will probably have a cold spring that immediately turns to summer- so like every year. 

2 hours ago, Spartman said:

Columbus has had only a trace of snowfall so far this month. The previous Januaries that Columbus only had a trace of snowfall the entire month were 1944 and 1932 (both tied for the least snowiest January on record), however one of the two Februaries that followed those Januaries were better. February 1944 recorded 8.8 inches of snow while February 1932 only recorded 0.4 inches of snow.

Columbus' Highest Daily Maximum Snowfall During Those Februaries:
February 1944: 4.3 inches
February 1932: 0.4 inches

As of today, Dayton still only has a trace of snowfall this month. With January 1944 as the least snowiest on record without any snow at all (not even a trace), the previous Januaries that Dayton only had a trace of snowfall the entire month were in 1933 and 1932 (both tied for the 2nd least snowiest January on record). January 1944 that didn't have any snowfall, let alone a trace, was followed by February of that year recording a monthly snowfall total of 8 inches. February 1933 recorded 3.2 inches of snow while February 1932 recorded only 0.6 inches of snow.

Dayton's Highest Daily Maximum Snowfall During Those Februaries:
February 1944: 3 inches
February 1933: 1.5 inches
February 1932: 0.4 inches

As of today, Cincinnati literally has no snowfall so far this month, not even a trace. Never has Cincinnati had gone through a January without any snow since records began in 1872. The least snowiest January on record is only a trace back in 1989, tied with 1944, 1933, 1932, and 1923. February 1989 recorded 3 inches of snow while February 1944 recorded 5.8 inches of snow, February 1933 with 4.1 inches of snow, February 1932 with only a trace of snowfall, and February 1923 with 3.6 inches of snow.

Cincinnati's Highest Daily Maximum Snowfall During Those Februaries:
February 1989: 1 inch
February 1944: 2 inches
February 1933: Same as above
February 1932: Trace
February 1923: 2.7 inches

Save for the winters of 1925-26, 1933-34, 1935-36, 1944-45 and 1947-48, the period of 1920-1949 is by far the worst for winter weather.  Of those 30 seasons, only the five mentioned had normal or above snowfall, and almost as few had below normal temperatures, at least in Columbus.  The average snowfall for the period was just 16.3", a full foot below what it's been in the most recent 30 seasons.  There were 11 seasons in a row with below normal snowfall (1936-37-1946-47), the longest such period on record.

So with this latest storm being a bust and nothing on the horizon but more rain, this is looking like the first January in 76 years to have no measurable snowfall in Columbus.  It would be just the 3rd time in history to have occurred, both other times before 1950.  Dayton and Cincinnati also have had no measurable snowfall. Most of the winter forecasts have been Bastardi-level awful.  Just an epic fail all around.  

3 hours ago, Spartman said:

2015-2016 and 2016-2017 both made the top 10 warmest winters on record at Dayton. 2015-2016 had a snowfall total of 12.7 inches while 2016-2017 was the most recent single-digit snowfall season with only 8.5 inches. March 2016 almost made it to one of the top 10 warmest Marches on record while March 2017 ended slightly warmer than normal, despite a prolonged cold period in the 2/3 of March. The coldest low temperature so far (and will likely be for) this season was 5 degrees back on November 13th with the second coldest low of 8 degrees on December 19th. It is still currently a lock that we'll still have single-digit snowfall totals after we begin February. Could be one of those years that we may not really have to pay for it as much in March and/or April. #springiscoming #twentyhundredandburnttoacrisp

Winters that have single-digit snowfall at the end of January are VERY unlikely to end up even close to normal.  It's only happened a few times, and none of those were as warm as this winter has been.  In Columbus, there have been 50 winters where snowfall was in the single digits through January 31st.  Of those 50, just 4 had enough snowfall the rest of the winter to reach or exceed normal.  2019-20 is almost guaranteed to end up well below normal.  The average snowfall of those 50 is almost 13" below normal.  The story is similar for Dayton.  February-March would have to be epic, and that seems unlikely at this point.  The winters in reference are 1905-1906, which had one of the snowiest Aprils on record, 1959-1960, which had a fantastic late February and March, 1970-1971 which had a rare 9" snow in February and 1992-1993, which benefitted some from the Blizzard of 93.

So through the first 11 days of January in Columbus

Avg High: 49.4 5th warmest on record

Avg Low: 34.1 7th warmest on record

Mean: 41.7 6th warmest on record

Snowfall: Trace 2nd lowest on record

Precip: 2.13" 13th wettest on record

Safe to say that January will end up above normal even with a colder 2nd half.  The pattern looks pretty dry after the mid-week rainer once it does get colder.  

Since December 1st, the records are very similar with temperatures running in the top 10 warmest winters on record.  

The 71 degree high yesterday was the 3rd highest temperature ever recorded in January and was a record for the day.

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

It goes without saying that cold & active would be the preference, however, even cold, dry and clippery is a massive improvement over what we've had in December and January. After a nice bout of sustained Winter in November, it's been nothing but fleeting cold shots and brief periods of snow which quickly melted. So now that the light is at the end of the tunnel, I am counting down the days lol.

For Michigan and the Upper Lakes/Midwest, it looks fine, but the OV still looks like trash in the extended.

For the supposed pattern change upcoming after the 16th, it appears to be the same pattern in terms of storms for the Ohio Valley- rain then cold front and dry, then rain, cold front and dry.  Maybe the cold periods are colder and a bit longer, and there aren't record highs during the rainstorms (there will still be days in the 40s and 50s), but other than that, it's not looking that impressive outside of the areas north of I-80, which have been the areas that have had anything during the current pattern.  This is looking like one of the exception winters from the stats I posted earlier in the season, with January easily being well above normal in temperatures overall with well below normal snowfall.  I suppose that could change in February-March, but it's unlikely to save the season overall without a February 2010 kind of pattern.

Some stats... take them as you will. 

For Columbus...

Since 1878, there have been 32 years that saw at least 2.5" of snow by November 30th, similar to 2019.  Of those 32, 19 of the following winters had above to much above normal snowfall.  An additional 3 had normal snowfall, with the remaining 10 being below to much below normal.  4 of those below normal years came within the abnormally bad snow period of 1920-1949, during which there were just 4 winters that reached normal snowfall.  The remaining 6 were scattered across the other decades.  Half of the below normal years still reached at least 20" for the season. The overall average snowfall for the 32 was 30.9"  

So overall, the early season snow was much more of a positive sign than not for snowfall.

As for cold,  18 following winters were colder than normal, 6 were near normal and the remaining 8 were above normal.  The average temperature was 30.2, a bit more than 1 degree below normal.  

13 hours ago, Gino27 said:

Wasn't the first half of November quite cold last year too? Then we had a pretty chilly first week of December followed by some terrible mild weather for what felt like forever. Hopefully we don't repeat that.

The first week or so of November 2018 was actually around normal/a bit warmer than normal, with 4 days hitting at least 60.  The coldest weather happened after the 8th, which limited 2018's position on this particular ranking.  2018 does show up on the coldest average high ranking, though, for the first 15 days of November. This year looks to blow that away, though.

Regardless of any snow threats, this week after Wednesday and into next week is looking pretty cold through at least mid-month. 

For Columbus, here were the coldest November 1-15 periods.

Top 10 Coldest Average High: 1976: 43.5, 1967/1997: 44.7, 1996: 44.9, 1991: 45.1, 1910: 45.4, 1894: 45.7, 1921: 46.5, 1995: 46.6, 2018: 47.5, 1907: 47.7

Top 10 Coldest Average Low: 1976: 26.3, 1991: 27.2, 1908: 29.8, 1995: 30.2, 1951/1954: 30.9, 1886: 31.1, 1996: 31.3, 1953: 31.4, 1921: 31.9, 1905/1910: 32.3

Top 10 Coldest Mean: 1976: 34.9, 1991: 36.2, 1996: 38.1, 1995: 38.4, 1967: 38.8, 1910: 38.9, 1908: 39.1, 1921: 39.2, 1894/1951: 39.3, 1886: 40.0

Models have been spitting out average means for the first 15 days between 34-37 degrees. There doesn't seem to be any direct correlation to winter as there were both awful and very good winters in these years. 

19 hours ago, CoachLB said:

10PM Update... Tornadoes confirmed so far...
EF3 across much of Montgomery County, including Trotwood
EF3 across Beavercreek Township
EF2 in NE Montgomery County south of Vandalia
EF0 in Miami/Montgomey Counties near Phillipsburg
EF0 southeast of Circleville OH (Pickaway County)
EF1 south of Tarlton OH (Pickaway County)
EF2 near Laurelville OH (Hocking County)
EF3 in Celina, OH (Mercer County)

There are now at least 15 individual tornadoes confirmed so far in Ohio, with surveys still ongoing.  This includes 3 EF3s, 4 EF2s, 4 EF1s and 4 EF0s.  I'm not sure of the exact rank, but it'd definitely be a top 5 single-day outbreak in Ohio history even if no more are added. 

EF3 across much of Montgomery County, including Trotwood
EF3 across Beavercreek Township
EF2 in NE Montgomery County south of Vandalia
EF0 in Miami/Montgomey Counties near Phillipsburg
EF0 southeast of Circleville OH (Pickaway County)
EF1 south of Tarlton OH (Pickaway County)
EF2 near Laurelville OH (Hocking County)
EF3 in Celina, OH (Mercer County)
EF1 in New Madison, OH (Darke County)
EF2 in West Milton, OH (Miami County)
EF0 in Taylor Creek Township, OH (Hardin County)
EF1 northeast of Jamestown, OH (Greene/Fayette Counties)
EF2 northeast of Jamestown, OH (Greene/Fayette Counties)
EF1 west of Wapakoneta, OH (Auglaize County)
EF0 near Waynesfield, OH (Auglaize County)

Damage being reported in Circleville, Laurelville and areas in between.