jbcmh81

Just now, jaf316 said:

It sucks being right on the edge every single time. I feel like if you zoom in tight enough on these maps, you can see my house sitting right on the mix line... 

This is why the 71/70 corridors have such a crap history with really big snowfalls.  Conditions have to be absolutely perfect to see something like a double-digit snowfall.  

11 minutes ago, HighTechEE said:

Wow, 12z NAM & GFS shows if you're not NW of I-71 you're in big trouble 

Low actually looks a tiny bit further SE at 12z on the GFS, but the warming is even greater.  

10 minutes ago, NEOH said:

That's weird... I don't experience any glitches with the weather.cod.edu site at all. Maybe because I copied and pasted the URL. Who knows. 

I meant with the NWS radar site.

2 minutes ago, NEOH said:

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=ILN-N0Q-0-24-100-usa-rad

 

Good site.  The NWS radar is such a hot mess.  I like the multiple view options, but everything is painfully slow to load and so, so glitchy that it's worthless.  

10 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

I know it’s nowcasting time, but 12z NAM went further NW

I don't know if the low moved further NW, but it is showing the mixing line a bit further NW, so yeah.  Same result.  Still the warmest model.  Low through central WV looks most likely, with mix at or near 71.  It's going to be really close and will be the difference between 4"-6" totals and 8"-12" totals.  

14 minutes ago, buckeye said:

No changing in the middle .....got to ride the calls come pellets or pingers!   I'm sticking to mine.   

If the precip comes in as heavy snow, I think it'll stay mainly snow.  If it let's up in intensity then it could changeover.

I agree with you about it staying snow if it hits as heavy snow, but I can't discount the possibility of a classic Central Ohio bust.  It's happened too many times with too many heartbreaks.  The fact that the first round has mostly missed to the west is a bad sign.

Anyone want to change their calls?  First round underperformed I think, not that it was supposed to be much.  Most of the models now have the mixing line reaching 71.  As mentioned last night, I thought Columbus might bust too high because of that danger.  I had them at 8.5", but now thinking no more than maybe 7".  Still something to watch, but yeah, you can't beat climo too often in these situations.

1 minute ago, buckeye said:

I think my progression was TWC...Wright Weather....eastern....AmWx.  

Back in the day we didn't have geographic subforums....  The storm threads were like the wild west 

I dabbled on WW for a time as well.  I didn't post much those days- not that I'm super prolific now.  

Yeah, it was a total sh*tshow back then.  

7 minutes ago, buckeye said:

  yup, 25 years plus with some of us.

I was on some of the weather forums going back to Weather.com and NEwx.  Around 1995-96 I think was the first big winter I remember on them.

16 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Man you guys got the patient buried and embalmed before the operation 

Food for thought...the anecdotal kind

1. When aren't we on the line?  I mean that's how we roll.

2. More often than not, these nail biters that we follow every last model run on tend to work out.  Feb 2014, Dec. 04.  Ironically the ones we think we're safe on are the ones that punch us in the gut, Feb 07 comes to mind.

3. This storm has another one right on its ass, which favors more progression. 

4. First true arctic press involved all season.

5. Expansive snow cover over the entire state.

Relax, this is what makes this hobby so interesting.

 

It's nowcast time anyway.  Forger the models at this point.  

It's probably overdone, but it would be unwise to fully discount it.  It's hardly without precedent.

Would certainly be a historic storm if it ended up like the Euro.

4 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

It appears to have been an outlier at 12z so it adjusted at 18z at least. It had less than 5” all the way into DE County.

Probabilities are dropping for higher totals, too.  This is looking more and more like a special for I-75 and points west.  Maybe I was way too early with the total calls.  

Sub 6" line has crept into Franklin County on the latest NAM.  It's kind of on its own, but we'll see.

So what's everyone's call?

Instead of giving a range, I'll just put out exact amounts and see how close I am...  

Columbus: 8.5"

Dayton: 10.5"

Cincinnati: 9.5"

Toledo: 8"

Cleveland: 11" including some lake enhancement.  

Max total somewhere in the state would be in the neighborhood of 15", I think, probably around the northern Miami Valley.  I might be too low with a few of these, but I'm definitely incorporating climo.  Biggest bust potential is Columbus being too high if the storm ends up further NW and Toledo and Cincy being too low.

31 minutes ago, iluvsnow said:

And the Kuchera for both storms from the 12z GFS.....

Looks like most of that is from the first storm, at least closer to 71.  Further NW will probably do well with both.

43 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

12z NAM agrees

Yep.  I will say the NAM is always furthest NW with everything, but something to watch with that obvious dryslot.  Still shows a solid 6"+, but when it comes to the 71 corridor, these types of trends should be freaking everyone out.  It would be classic to be in the bullseye for days only to have it slip away at the last minute while those who thought they would miss it get slammed.  

7 hours ago, chuckster2012 said:

I'm surprised more people aren't posting on here with one and possibly two big storms bearing down on us. It will be epic if the second one is mostly snow and not rain.

Welcome back, Buckeye!

The north trend with this first one should be concerning for anyone hoping for mostly snow from the 2nd.  It's not been subtle, and if it continues to the last minute, I could see the I-71 corridor getting screwed with lower totals.  Still looks good at this point, but that NW trend has always been a killer and why climo doesn't support big snow (double digits) through Central Ohio.  ILN may be lowballing it compared to models, but they have a reason to be cautious.  CLE is definitely too low in NW Ohio. It's not even a question.  

Just now, fyrfyter said:

NKY at the airport got to 9.something due to mesoscale banding. I got 5 at my house, in NW Hamilton County.

9.8", which is as close to double digits as you can get.  Most of the heaviest stuff fell just south of the river.  But overall, Cincy has had a good winter.  It's already above average for the entire season I believe.

1 hour ago, fyrfyter said:

It’s been 10 years since we have seen a double digit snowfall. It will likely be another 10 before we see another one. I hope this happens as modeled. I am just happy the last part of winter this season has been this good. 

Cincinnati came really close to double-digits just last week.  I think some of the metro hit that.

1 hour ago, Gino27 said:

ILN AFD:

However, some important differences remain in low placement and
intensity. The 00Z GFS is running faster and a bit further
south while the ECMWF is slower, stronger, and further north.
Due to these differences, have continued a rather broad band of
4-8 inches area wide. Certainly there is a good possibility
local areas will see nearly a foot of snow with higher drifts
based on QPF, snow ratios, duration of the event, and wind
fields. In addition, as the low reaches the vicinity of the
central Appalachians, some forecast soundings -- particularly
the 00Z GFS -- show a deep saturated layer centered in the DGZ.
Will closely monitor track and strength of the low, as these
will play a critical role in a detailed accumulation forecast
leading up to the event.

Central Ohio hasn't had a foot from a single storm in 13 years. Wow.

March 2008 was such a great, long-duration event. However, it's not exactly been 13 years for all of Central Ohio.  February 5-6, 2010 saw 12"-15" for some areas along and north of I-70, and February 15-16, 2010 hit a foot in a few spots.  Double-digit snowfalls are exceedingly rare in Central Ohio, though.  If we go by single-day totals, there have only been 3 since 1884.  2-day events, you only have 10.  So this event could be historic from that perspective.

2 hours ago, vespasian70 said:

Buckeye will be missed in the coming days.

What happened to him?

22 minutes ago, Steve said:

Don’t forget the stationary front that is moving slightly north... and if you look closely the snow is edging north..

You'd need an electron microscope to see that movement, and the back edge of the most northern extent along 70 is pushing through Dayton with nothing at all behind it.  Inch or less for the I-70 corridor, but the tier of counties just to the south could easily see 5"-6" considering what they're seeing.  Delaware, Union, etc. probably won't see a flake.  Newark might do slightly better since it's further east, but all the heavy stuff will miss you too.

Total whiff for I-70 north.  I don't think the stuff out in Missouri is going to save you all.  Columbus will be lucky to see a tenth the way things look now, a far cry from 2-4".  I would expect those advisories to be dropped at some point.

3 hours ago, Gino27 said:

Y'all can have the snow at this point. I'm afraid I'll be doing another spring training for baseball indoors assuming they won't let schools travel down south.

That's a nice way of pretending that map's not super painful for Central Ohio snow weenies.