jbcmh81

Mountain Cams | Mad River Mountain Resort (skimadriver.com)

I always liked watching these cams, as they are live.  Snowing pretty good 50 miles NW of Columbus.

3 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

See some people reporting snow in Clintonville and OTE, but not sure if they're confusing it with sleet.  

Confirmed Clintonville was a mix of snow/sleet, OTE was sleet.  John Glenn now reporting a sleet/snow mix as well.

See some people reporting snow in Clintonville and OTE, but not sure if they're confusing it with sleet.  

1 minute ago, buckeye said:

I'm way more optimistic then some of you.   Even if it's early afternoon before all snow, the snow should be falling at a good rate an base of ice and sleet.  Also, the nam and some other models are beginning to show a longer duration with more energy lagging on the tail end.

patience grasshoppers

Agreed.  I don't think this ends up like the big bust last year.  Every storm is different, so past performance doesn't indicate future results.  There have also been storms that were predicted to be a whole lot of mix and ended up mostly snow.  The February 5-6, 2010 storm being an example.  They don't all go in one direction.

35 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Per user report galena(Delaware area) is still sleet. 

Per social media, it's snowing there.  Also snow now being reported in Galloway, just SE of 270.  Has mostly turned to sleet across the rest of Columbus recently it seems.  That's progress at least!

It's way too early to be throwing in the towel given even the best models had mixing until later this afternoon.  Now that I'm looking at metars, snow is now being reported almost everywhere along a line from Hamilton through Dayton, London, Marysville and Delaware.  Many of those places were reporting sleet or freezing rain about an hour ago.   

Snow being reported in London, Delaware and at Rickenbacker currently, but lots of mixing further wes.

8 minutes ago, jaf316 said:

Cmh still at 40 degrees

It'll drop.  OSU airport just went from 40 to 34, so it's moving across the city now.

32 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

It's apparently snowing in marysvilMarysville, but radar shows them sleeting

Surface freezing line is almost to Columbus, as it's passed through Marysville, Delaware and London.  

No real reports of mixing that I've seen in the transition zone so far- just rain to snow.  Hopefully that can translate east in the 71 corridor.

13 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

I know, but we've never gotten to the modeled temps today, and I just dont think that waa is string enough to overcome that cold front. I think it'll be close and the sleet line will be around eastern coshocton/Guernsey county and southwest from there. 

It's not the surface temps you have to worry about.

7 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

Fun to see the Ohio crew looking forward to something.  I miss my days in Hilliard of riding the rain/freezing rain/sleet line hoping for a good snow.

Sounds like they're just looking forward to inches of sleet.  

The nudges south seem to still be happening on the 0z NAM, but it was one of the furthest NW to begin with, so maybe just bowing to the others.

18z GFS also another nudge south too.  

Here's the entire series of GFS run solutions for 12z on February 3rd from 12z on January 24th to 18z today.  Today's south movement is clearly evident.  https://imgflip.com/gif/63fre7

RGEM came south a bit.  Trends still going in the right direction... well for everyone in this thread, anyway.

10 minutes ago, Gino27 said:

Nam is a mega sleet fest for us. Still nudged south though.

Sleet is slightly better than freezing rain.  It would at least theoretically indicate a faster changeover to snow at some point.

Edit: The ILN AFD was pretty light on giving any explanation for their thinking.  No talk of models, trends or anything.  I think that means they just don't know.  

Next couple model runs will tell the tale if this is going to move further south and be more snow, stay the same for a dangerous slop fest, or go north for more rain and slop.  I'm still leaning towards this nudging a big further south.  

13 minutes ago, Gino27 said:

I had heard it's a model blend that mostly favors the euro. That would be the only model showing big totals this far south anyways. Still gonna take a lot for that to happen imo. Today's runs will definitely tell a lot of the story. Hopefully we keep seeing things move in our direction. Like we said above, it's been so long since a big storm for Columbus.

I don't actually think it would take all that much to give Columbus a decent storm.  Probably wouldn't be in the axis of highest totals regardless, but it wouldn't take much more of a south move to put all of Central Ohio in the 6"+ totals, which would be on the larger side of typical storms for the area.  

With Buckeye's pressing high and climo, I would hedge my bets for a storm track further south than north, though.  At least right now.  

Seems to be some nervous posts in the other thread regarding the early week storm's heaviest snow axis moving south.  To me, it looked like 0z-6z runs were obviously further south. 

I agree with Buckeye about a pressing cold high tends to move things further south the closer in time we get, so maybe this is part of that, or maybe it's just a couple bad runs and we see it go back north, which wouldn't be the first time.  Climo this time of the year does favor further south though.  Even with the further south track shown, it wouldn't be a big snow event for central and southern parts of Ohio.  More rain south and significant ice for central.  Places like the northern Miami Valley would be hammered with snow, though.  

And... it's gone.

Just now, pondo1000 said:

May change my prediction….LOL

Not sure it's actually based on anything the models are showing, though.  Think they're just being traditionally conservative.

ILN's latest map seems to have shifted the heavier stuff further east.  

12z GFS definitely seemed further west through 60, then further east by 72, mostly because it moves the coastal low pretty much east off the coast when it its VA rather than continuing north up the coast.  Either way, the snow shield has inched west/north the last few runs.  

4 hours ago, JayPSU said:

This is starting to look like a Miller B transfer type of storm.  Seems to me, every time we have energy transfers, they ALWAYS take longer to transfer than modelled.  We have been screwed with changeovers many times due to the delay in transferring.

I actually don't think these are a big screw job traditionally.  January 1996 comes to mind.  As long as the cold is in place and the first low doesn't move too far north or get too strong initially, these are normally good snow makers, I think.  A lot of IFs, though, which is why such situations are generally rare regardless.

When's the last time Ohio even saw a true Miller B situation?

55 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

So for Indiana and Ohio the switch is flipping from Alek's WAD to CAD. Not cold air damming, but Cold And Dry.

That posted map is a good illustration of why there are 2 areas of focus on this forum.  It's not east-west, it's north-south.  That's why people in Detroit, Chicago, Des Moines, Milwaukee, Minneapolis, etc. all can talk about the same storm in the same thread because those areas can all sometimes share in the same events, but it's pretty rare that a storm that hits Chicago-Detroit also hits Peoria-Indy-Columbus.  It's not about "stealing" anyone's storm for any area, it's just the nature of one area getting hit is usually bad for the other.