LP08

It's certainly not much better through 318. Almost completely opposite of the GEFS. +EPO, +NAO, -PNA.

I agree with all of this. Mostly as I explained to Ralph was in jest since everyone is on pins and needles it seems. It’s been quite some time we have had blocking like that. My fear is if we lose the PAC look, like the EPS suggests, then blocking and PAC air won’t work for us. I saw Bob mentioned the deamplified look and that’s what I was looking at. I know to look for more than just the red or blue over us.

I edited my post. It’s mostly just to stir up the base since we are hoping to move it forward in time and it’s still out there towards the end of then. I agree it’s a good look but I think we can all agree it would be nice to be getting closer.

First warning shot by the GEFS.... Edit to add, it’s still much better than the EPS but showing some troughiness out west. Need the -EPO to hold

No disrespect taken. We are all looking at the same data and trying to make educated guesses on what and why is happening. Taking the EPS run, I don’t really see much in the medium range that gives any confidence in things changing. North America is flooded with pac air so even with transient blocking, there is just zero cold air anywhere. Take a look at Tuesday’s event, pretty awesome H5 pass and it’s a rainstorm for the entire coast. Now if it’s the MJO, SSW or whatever that is causing issues then someone who is much smarter than me can assess that.

I sure hope so. I’m with Bob, until we get rid of the troughing on the west coast in real time, we are cooked.

I know one thing...I’m tired of seeing this look in the extended....

It’s pretty incredible that what seems like the last three or more weeks there has been a Midwest storm on Friday. Quite the atmospheric memory.

Major changes for the GFS even at 78 hrs...still likely another rainstorm but goodness that’s a big change at that lead time.

I mean normally this H5 look would be exciting but there is zero cold air any where...

Only a few more runs til it cuts to Chicago

Gfs might try to get frisky at 12z. More consolidation of the Southern wave with a better cold press...

+PNA is ridging over the west (ideally through the intermountain west) and -EPO is ridging that extends into Eastern Alaska. We usually want a trough set up over the Aleutians. The figure I posted was more of a neutral epo as that trough was a little to far east. I am probably not the best person to be giving the explanation but on a broad sense, its what I grasp from the H5 plots.

That was what caught my eye as well. It helps keep the PV planted in Northern Canada. Also looks like some support for the follow up idea as well around Jan 3rd-5th. I haven't look at the members just the 24hr precip maps.

For some good news..12z EPS looks much better than 0z through 222. PV in NE Canada, -NAO, +PNA, -EPO with the Aleutian Trough. I'd imagine the there will be some good looks in the individuals with that look. 240 below.

Temps are quite iffy and its in and out pretty quick...But at least there is some digital snow for those that need their fix.

Euro looks to be onboard for the wave riding the boundary through 168.....

Merry Christmas all!!

Tick, smidge, “more amped” lol

Oh I’m just messing with Panic group. Seems that after the cutter goes and drags the boundary through and a wave rides it.

Heh...Snowfall map is pretty similar to December...Uh oh

12z has the New Years storm again with a little different progression. Heavy stuff stays south into Southern Va/NC....these always trend north

It only snows at the beach so it could be a chase too!

Its hour 66. Looks like the others with the surface toasty-ish. 850s are fine though.