weatherwiz

Both the GFS and NAM getting 40-50 units of omega into the dGZ at BDL....LET'S GO BABY!!!!

not necessarily. I do think the track will be far enough north (particularly H7) that southern CT may experience some dry slot issues. I am also factoring in subsidence zone which there should be one on the northern fringe of the band and one on southern fringe and I think the band goes right through northern CT and southern CT could struggle a bit. It's always a challenge accounting for subsidence in a snowfall map, however, I do like the idea of doing so.

Wish I had more time to post in here with all this fun. did an updated map for CT now that I feel more confident regarding banding placement. Concerns for subsidence and dry slot along southern CT and perhaps mixing far SE CT. And no...I am not buying into this more northern trend.

barely even develops a closed H7 low lol

ughhh this is beautiful. but just imagine the subsidence hell on either side of this

also trying to account for subsidence b/c there will definitely be subsidence zone in the vicinity of where the CCB tracks. Once I'm more confident in CCB and where that traverses this will be altered a bit.

When pretty weenie with my first call I made earlier this afternoon. There were a few things I didn't like...such as potential for H7 low to track over CT or kinda be more elongated (same with 850 low) but the signals are there for some very intense banding to move across the state. Thinking we should do quite well on the ratios side too.

Looks to be a quite a bit of confluence over the region though...also a decent amount of PVA...biggest inhibiting factor could be dry air, but looks like RH increases...wouldn't be surprised to see precipitation blossom for sure but I don't think this is really much of a winter threat (accumulating wise anyways)

Agreed on everything here. In fact, I would not be surprised to see Monday sort of transition to more of a cyclogeneis deal...some hints at that within the upper-level jet structure (decent signal for cyclogenesis potential right off the coast) and this could be aided depending on how the northern/stream stream interact. But yeah...this could definitely have some implication on the mid-week potential, especially considering how it could impact how the pattern evolves upstream of us. But all the pieces are there for mid-week...decent high, 50/50 low, but all scenarios are certainly at play (north - stronger or south - weaker). These fast flows though that provide little assistance for stronger amplification always throw wrenches into things.

The Euro for Monday was certainly quite intriguing. When looking at Euro preicip type just at face value and how it was configured, my initial thought was we were looking at a CAD signal here...but upon further inspection it appears this could be anafrontal generated (was this discussed in the previous thread?). The structure of the ULJ would certainly support this with some favorable large-scale lift behind the passage of the front. Anyways, very interesting euro but certainly hedging with caution with this type of setup. But that 500mb look is rather intriguing too...that's a pretty potent s/w trough digging in with an impressive southern stream vort. I would presume if we could get more phasing between the two this could be a nice event for many?

Did anyone see the new products on Cod models??? 250/500 height, speed, u anomalies 850 temp anomalies sfc temp/MSLP anoamlies

Does Kevin Cash get a ring?

oh shit...the spider is alive...someone please send help

Nice...I'm actually glad to hear this. I sort of cringe when I think about what most structures around here can withstand in terms of winds My house will be the only one standing when a cat 3 or higher rips through.

Same here...typically you see just one or maybe two types of spiders but I've had to see about 4 or 5 different types. The worst is in the bathroom. There isn't a single day that I don't see a spider...and sometimes multiple. There has to be a nest somewhere just not sure where. My guess is where the hot water heater is. I did find a dead baby mouse in front of the hot water heater too the other day...wonder if a spider got it

Those scare me more than spiders actually LOL. I had one crawl on my face once. I was talking with my friend who is real good with identifying spiders (only other person I know who is good is Will) and I said I am shocked at some of the spiders I've seen here since we don't have a basement and he was saying that could be why...they have nowhere to hide. I wouldn't think the area I'm in would be prone to these big spiders inside...typical house spider, daddy longlegs...sure but I've seen a fishing spider and now a wolf spider. If this was at night I would not be able to sleep.

I want to look into getting a house built and it has to have these capabilities; 1) Withstand winds up to 200 mph 2) Spider proof...I don't care what has to be done or if I need to take out a $1,000,000 loan to make it happen. I'll get the foundation sprayed once a week...and whoever builds is going to make sure there are ZERO cracks and zero ways for spiders to enter. That should be possible...I don't see how it can't. Spiders that big should also not be here in Windsor Locks...let alone inside a house. This is the second time I've seen one this big....that's two times too many. IDK what's going on but this needs to be investigated. I hope it's not climate change related. Wolf spiders inside of a house...if you live in the woods sure BUT THIS ISN"T THE FOOKING WOODS. Fishing spider and now wolf spider...this is bullshit.

I think there is a wolf spider on my kitchen floor. I threw this thing over it. I think the kitty got it though b/c it’s not moving. I’m so scared

yeah that's a pretty significant increase in lightning over the past half hour or so...certainly looks as impressive as previous bursts.

delicious model...some of it's members include Lays; Ruffles, Doritos

Pretty scary that we're continuing to see model intensity guidance bump in the stronger direction. I agree with @WxWatcher007 too...not very sold on the rapid weakening prior to LF.

Has NOAA been hacked or something? They've seem to be having some extensive problems or the better part of the last several months...server issues, product issues, older data/graphics being displayed, model issues. It's been pretty bad.

I'm really beginning to despise social media. I certainly see the good in it, however, I question whether the good outweighs the bad. I couldn't agree more regarding the conspiracy theories and fake news. What is also really irritating me are all these memes being floated around with information/statistics and they are shared like it's gospel...it's like if it's on a meme it's gotta be true. Now I totally get some people just share this stuff and don't take it seriously but many do. It's so easy to come up with a meme and throw info on their that supports a stance and for it to then be shared wildly by those who share the same stand. It's also irritating in terms of weather...just so much crap gets posted around. during tropical season...312-HR GFS maps showing a system over NYC...during winter...24-HR TOTAL snowfall maps...for severe...a 96-HR GFS SHARPpy sounding showing PDS Tornado...all this stuff does is generate unecessary hype...it gets into the hands of the wrong people, people get freaked out, and when that scenario doesn't unfold, forecasters are blamed...even though its weenies posting nonsensical trash.

Ahh I'm not far from there at all. Looks like it's right off Mill Plain. That's the road I use to/from Branford-North Branford then to 91 in Wallingford.

Awesome thanks! I won't be able to today but I will do so on Tuesday!